Presentation on theme: "4/30/20151 Consumption, Population, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns Tzuling, Lin Richard MacMinn Larry Y. Tzeng."— Presentation transcript:
4/30/20151 Consumption, Population, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns Tzuling, Lin Richard MacMinn Larry Y. Tzeng
4/30/20152 Background and Motivation Identifying the empirical linkage between the macroeconomic risks and the financial markets has always been an important economic issue. Consumption risk is an important factor.
4/30/20153 Background and Motivation The real consumption per capita figures of the emerging markets are on average lower than those of the developed countries, but the larger numbers or the larger growth rates of population of these countries appear to imply explosive potential in their financial markets. The baby boom has been claimed as a contributing factor in explaining the high stock returns and the large increase in stock prices in the 1990s for the US. We propose a new factor — Population Risk
4/30/20154 The Main Focus of the paper Population risk is an important factor! 1.Hansen and Singleton (1982, 1983), Mankiw and Shapiro (1986), and Breeden, Gibbons, and Litzenberger (1989) almost fail to find support for the CCAPM. 2.There are a lot of papers regarding the non- traditional one.a lot of papers 3.We conjecture the reason for not supporting the CCAPM is ignoring the dynamic of aggregate population. We derive the CPCAPM and prove that the CPCAPM improves CCAPM in alternative ways.
4/30/20155 The Main Focus of the paper Demographics affects the stock returns for the US! 1.There is a substantial literature on the impact of demographics on stock returns.a substantial literature 2.We conjecture that the speeds and stabilities of the population growth including these age groups can give different shocks to the stock market. 3.We extend our original CPCAPM by incorporating different age groups and show that this extension improves the CPCAPM.
4/30/20156 The CCAPM Literature Improve the performance of traditional CCAPM by using multiperiod growth rates 1. Parker and Julliard (2005) find that the covariance between an asset ’ s return during a quarter and cumulative consumption growth over the several following quarters, which they refer to as ultimate consumption risk, explains the cross-section of stock returns very well.
4/30/20157 The CCAPM Literature 2. Jagannathan and Wang (2007) find that when consumption betas of stocks are computed using year-over-year consumption growth based on the fourth quarter, the CCAPM performs as well as the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model. Since, for the CCAPM to hold at any given time point, investors must make their consumption and investment decisions simultaneously at that time point, they suspect it is more likely to happen during the fourth quarter.
4/30/20158 The CCAPM Literature Improve the performance of traditional CCAPM by using different consumption goods 1.Ait-Sahalis, Parker, and Yogo (2004) use novel data on the consumption of luxury goods and find that the consumption of luxuries covaries significantly more with stock returns than does aggregate consumption. 2.Yogo (2006) finds that durable consumption in conjunction with nondurable consumption can explain the cross-section of stock returns. back
4/30/20159 The Demographics Literature DellaVigna and Pollet (2007) forecast future cohort sizes at long horizons by using current cohort sizes in combination with mortality and fertility tables and analyze the consumption patterns of cohort ages in order to forecast the shifts in demand for various consumption goods. They find that an increase in forecasted future consumption demand growth induced by changes in age structure predicts an increase in stock returns. 9
4/30/201510 The Demographics Literature Bakshi and Chen (1994) empirically find that a rise in average age is found to predict a rise in equity risk premium using U. S. data in the post- 1945 period. The finding supports the life-cycle investment hypothesis that an investor allocates more wealth in housing at an early stage and then switches to financial assets at a later stage. 10
4/30/201511 The Demographics Literature Poterba (2001) investigates the association between the projected asset demands based on the future age structure of U. S. population and the returns on stocks and bonds. Ang and Maddaloni (2005) examine the link between equity risk premiums and demographic changes for many countries.
4/30/201512 The Demographics Literature Mehra et. al.(2002) observe a high equity premium in the presence of borrowing constraints. Goyal (2004) empirically finds that, for the U. S. economy, the outflows from the stock market are positively correlated with the changes in the fraction of old people and negatively correlated with those of the middle- aged. Athanasoulis (2006) numerically illustrates that there is a positive correlation between the proportion of the population that is young and the equity premium. back
4/30/201513 The Model — CPCAPM 1. denotes the excess return on an asset i from time t to t+1; denotes aggregate consumption; 2. Following Parker and Julliard (2005), we use the Euler equation for the risk-free rate, between time t+1 and t+1+s
4/30/201514 The Model — CPCAPM 3.Substituting from equation in 2 into 1 yields 4.Defining and reorganizing bullet 3, the expected returns are given by (*)
4/30/201515 The Model — CPCAPM 5. The population at time t is ; the consumption per capita at time t is. The aggregate consumption can be represented as. Hence, given the power utility function ( )
4/30/201516 The Model — CPCAPM 6. Approximating around and using Taylor series to get (**) where and
4/30/201517 The Model — CPCAPM 7. Substituting (**) into (*), yields the CPCAPM :the population beta for (s+1)-period population growth :the market price for population risk
4/30/201518 The Model — CPCAPM :the consumption beta for (s+1)-period consumption growth :the market price for consumption risk where
4/30/201519 The Model — CPCAPM with Age Groups 1.We denote the number of population for age group as, where : childhood, : young-aged, : middle-aged, : old-aged. Since
4/30/201520 The Model — CPCAPM with Age Groups 2. Approximating around and using Taylor series yields (***)
4/30/201521 The Model — CPCAPM with Age Groups 3. Putting (***) into (*), yields the CPCAPM with age groups. :the population beta for age groups
4/30/201522 The Model — CPCAPM with Age Groups : the market price for population risk of age group : the market price for consumption risk where
4/30/201523 The Data Consumption data: use real consumption expenditure on two sets of consumption goods (nondurables plus services, and durables and nondurables plus services) for the period 1950 to 2005 from NIPA tables available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table I
4/30/201524 The Data Population data: 1.the quarterly number of the aggregate population from NIPA Table 2.1 2.the annual numbers of population of every age from the Human Mortality Database for the period 1950 to 2005. Table II
4/30/201525 The Data Asset return data: use the returns on 25 book-to-market and size-sorted portfolios, values for Fama and French (1993) three factor (market, SMB, HML) for the period 1951 to 2005 available from Kenneth French ’ s web site. Table III
4/30/201526 Empirical Findings CPCAPM v.s traditional CCAPM v.s Fama-French model Population risk v.s Q4 v.s ultimate risk Two consumption goods (nondurables and service v.s durables, nondurables and services) Demographics
4/30/201527 Empirical Findings Comparison of the CCAPM, the CPCAPM, and Fama and French Three-Factor Model Three Effects: Population Risk, Q4, and Ultimate Risk See Tables IV, V, Fig. 1 See Tables VI, VII
4/30/201528 Empirical Findings The Robustness Evidence Population Risks of Age Groups See Tables VIII, IX, X See Tables XI, XII
4/30/201529 Empirical Findings Consumption Betas and Population Betas Further Comparison of the CCAPM, the CPCAPM, and the CPCAPM with Age Groups See Table XV, Fig. 2 See Tables XIII, XIV
4/30/201530 Conclusion The CPCAPM performs much better than the CCAPM. 1.The stock market actually responds to the dynamic of the aggregate population. 2.An increase in the aggregate population risk will decrease the expected excess return.
4/30/201531 Conclusion The CPCAPM with age groups improves the CPCAPM. 1.The stock market also responds to the dynamics of the population of age groups. 2.When measuring risks at the best-fitted horizon, an increase in the population risk of the childhood and the young-aged will decrease the expected excess return whereas an increase in the population risk of the middle-aged and the old-aged will increase the expected excess return.