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NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 1 Hydrology Lab Overview George Smith July 13, 2004.

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Presentation on theme: "NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 1 Hydrology Lab Overview George Smith July 13, 2004."— Presentation transcript:

1 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 1 Hydrology Lab Overview George Smith July 13, 2004

2 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 2 Work Areas in the Hydro Lab New NWSRFS software architecture (CHPS) Overall ensemble forecast research & tools AWIPS Regular Releases (3.1, 3.3, 4.0, 4.x, 5, 6) - NWSRFS enhancements, WHFS enhancements, IHFS DB conversion (Postgres) HSD Bug List & Consultation Precipitation Frequency Analysis HADS Hydromet Forcing - PE estimates, gauge QC, prob. QPE, NEXRAD improvements, RCA/CSSA, temperature forcing Distributed Hydrologic Modeling - Frozen ground, large scale hydro modeling DHMS project, DMIP2, Flash flood stat distributed hydrologic model, soil parameters, calibration River Mechanics models/tools - DamCrest/DamAT, FLDVIEW/FLDXS, FLDAT, FLDWAV/SHRT, coastal river modeling, other GIS OHD/NSSL collaborations - QPESUMS evals, QPE-to-estuary modeling, NMQ, Satellite QPE, Dual Polarization

3 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 3Outline ● Hydrologic Operational Service Improvement Process ● OHD End-to-end Projects ● Distributed Hydrologic Modeling ● Range Correction Algorithm ● FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW ● Probabilistic QPF/QTF ● Site Specific (add SAC-SMA) ● Precipitation Frequency Studies ● NWS Integrated Water Science

4 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 4 Hydrologic Operations & Service Improvement Process (HOSIP) Status Definition & Implementation of a Requirements-based Process that Ensures Field Review of Science Infusion and Software Engineering Projects Basic Process and Controls Defined Implementation on Selected Projects Distributed Hydrologic Modeling SystemDistributed Hydrologic Modeling System –Statement of Need (SON) & Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Developed –Operational Requirements (ORD) Developed & Field Review Scheduled Flood MappingFlood Mapping –SON, CONOPS, & ORD Developed & Field Review Underway WSR88D Range Correction AlgorithmWSR88D Range Correction Algorithm –SON, CONOPS, ORD RFC Forecast Verification Re-host on the RAXRFC Forecast Verification Re-host on the RAX –Requirements analysis, design specifications, reviews, system/user documentation Automated Tool Set Adaptation to Scientific Process Adapting Software Engineering Tools to Streamline DevelopmentAdapting Software Engineering Tools to Streamline Development Requirements Definition Before Development ActivitiesRequirements Definition Before Development Activities

5 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 5 HOSIP Plans Develop & Implement Quality Assurance Procedures Institutionalize HOSIP Use on All ProjectsUse on All Projects Ensure Field Review & Verification of ProjectsEnsure Field Review & Verification of Projects Develop Support Documentation in Accordance with Development PlansDevelop Support Documentation in Accordance with Development Plans Develop Common Plans & Plan Review Procedures Tie to Quad ChartsTie to Quad Charts Tie to NOAA & NWS Strategic PlansTie to NOAA & NWS Strategic Plans Complete Adaptation of Automated Tools to HOSIP Continue to Coordinate with NWS OSIP

6 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 6 Distributed Hydrologic Modeling System (DHMS) Status Collaborated with ABRFC and a contractor (Apex) to develop DHMS 1.0, a prototype operational distributed hydrologic modeling system, to help define functional requirements for DHMS 2.0 (the AWIPS-ready version) Compiled ABRFC and WGRFC feedback on DHMS 2.0 functional requirements after 4 months of operational testing Conducted a software engineering functional requirements analysis using the “use-case” approach Defined Users (8)  Use Cases (26)  Functional Requirements (150)Defined Users (8)  Use Cases (26)  Functional Requirements (150) Initiated a peer review of the derived use cases and functional requirements

7 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 7 DHMS Future Work Finish Research and Analysis, HOSIP Stage 3 Complete requirements review to validate, refine, and prioritize functional requirements Complete requirements review to validate, refine, and prioritize functional requirements – OHD, OCWWS/HSD, ABRFC, WGRFC Get OHD/HL approval to move to HOSIP stage 4 Get OHD/HL approval to move to HOSIP stage 4 Conduct Operational Development, HOSIP Stage 4 Derive system level requirements (technical/architectural) Derive system level requirements (technical/architectural) Design DHMS Design DHMS – Design overall DHMS – Take advantage of CHPS where possible – Design initial components for DHMS 2.0 – Create test plans/procedures for DHMS 2.0 Develop and Test DHMS 2.0 Develop and Test DHMS 2.0 Submit DHMS 2.0 to AWIPS Submit DHMS 2.0 to AWIPS

8 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 8 Field evaluation at 6 WFOs completed on June 11: Charleston, WV; Portland, OR; Norman, OK; Pleasant Hill, MO; Minneapolis, MN; Pittsburgh, PA Level II data delivered from WFOs to clone RPG systems at NWSHQ; web interface provided for field participants to review data Purpose of field evaluation: to validate science using real-time data from NWS sites around the nation to solicit feedback from operational forecasters Results: Overall impression: positive Some minor adjustments in logic needed to take into account unforeseen situations Formal project documentation underway: Concept of operations (1 st draft complete) Operational Requirements definition Scientific Algorithm description Independent Validation & Verification (IV&V) of science at Radar Operations Center (ROC) System resource issue: ROC engineering analysis says software consumes too much cpu HSEB NEXRAD Development Group currently focusing on improving source code efficiency Range Correction Algorithm (RCA) Project Status

9 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 9 Schedule delays: Postpone from AWIPS OB6 to OB7 (pending outcome of OB6 AWIPS SREC) Postpone from RPG Build 8 to Build 9 (system resource issues requires more effort) Deploy Spring 2006 July 2004: ROC completes IV&V July 2004: Presentation to NEXRAD Technical Advisory Committee (TAC): committee to review field evaluation results and cost benefit committee to provide recommendation for proceeding to operational implementation August 2004: Develop strategy for improving system resource usage Revise project plan October 2004: presentation to NEXRAD System Recommendation Evaluation Committee (SREC) for RPG Build assignment RCA Project Plans

10 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 10 FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project Status Accomplishments: Incorporated the features of the HSMB Prototype FLDWAV into the OB4 baseline. Allowing FLDVIEW input data to be generated by baseline FLDWAVAllowing FLDVIEW input data to be generated by baseline FLDWAV Added significant regression test cases for FLDWAV to AWIPS software baseline. Formalized a process to migrate FLDWAV capabilities to the AWIPS baseline. Decreasing the time it takes for Prototype features to get into the baseline (specific process steps derived from HOSIP)Decreasing the time it takes for Prototype features to get into the baseline (specific process steps derived from HOSIP)

11 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 11 FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project Plans Underway: Adding the capability to generate multi-scenario FLDVIEW input to the OB5 baseline via the FLDWAV Migration Process. Wrap-up FLDWAV Update Project. Further River Mechanics tasks will be part a new end-to-end projects. Implement Simplified Hydraulic Routing Technique (SHRT). Put FLDVIEW into AWIPS.

12 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 12 PQPF-PQTF Project Status Within HOSIP Stage 3, aims at enhancing the Ensemble Pre-Processor of the ESP system to: Produce seamless probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and temperature for all lead times (1 hour to 1 year)Produce seamless probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and temperature for all lead times (1 hour to 1 year) Incorporate skill of deterministic forecasts (QPF/QTF), correct forecast bias, and account for forecast uncertaintyIncorporate skill of deterministic forecasts (QPF/QTF), correct forecast bias, and account for forecast uncertainty Provide an interim step until global/regional ensembles are skillful enough to be used directlyProvide an interim step until global/regional ensembles are skillful enough to be used directly Current status: Integrated new science for short-term (days 1-5) using the RFC QPF/QTFIntegrated new science for short-term (days 1-5) using the RFC QPF/QTF Unified the processes for all lead times (including days 1-365 climate adjustments from NCEP/CPC)Unified the processes for all lead times (including days 1-365 climate adjustments from NCEP/CPC) Set up prototype at 3 demo RFCs for testing and feedbackSet up prototype at 3 demo RFCs for testing and feedback Developed a probabilistic verification program to do retrospective verification of short-term PQPF/PQTFDeveloped a probabilistic verification program to do retrospective verification of short-term PQPF/PQTF

13 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 13 PQPF-PQTF Project Future Work Ensemble generation: Enhance short-term functionality: integrate HPC QPF if no RFC QPF available, improve PQTF methodologyEnhance short-term functionality: integrate HPC QPF if no RFC QPF available, improve PQTF methodology Enhance medium-term functionality : include procedures for incorporating CPC days 6-14 forecastsEnhance medium-term functionality : include procedures for incorporating CPC days 6-14 forecasts Ensemble calibration: Enhance short-term calibration programsEnhance short-term calibration programs Deliver a calibration prototype for all lead timesDeliver a calibration prototype for all lead times Ensemble verification: Integrate more diagnosis measuresIntegrate more diagnosis measures Deliver a probabilistic verification program for short- and medium-term PQPF/PQTFDeliver a probabilistic verification program for short- and medium-term PQPF/PQTFCommunication: Papers to present short-term methodology and verification resultsPapers to present short-term methodology and verification results Experience shared with other global/regional ensemble projectsExperience shared with other global/regional ensemble projects Plan to move ensemble pre-processor components through operational development to deploymentPlan to move ensemble pre-processor components through operational development to deployment

14 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 14 Site Specific Status AWIPS OB4 – to be deployed September, 2004 Added SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model, which requiresAdded SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model, which requires –Parameter and state data transfer from RFC –Significant RFC involvement for calibration and state maintenance Still includes MBRFC APIStill includes MBRFC API Provides graphical editing of MAP, with immediateProvides graphical editing of MAP, with immediate forecast hydrograph recalculation and display forecast hydrograph recalculation and display OB4/ Field Test Sites SERFC/SJU, MBRFC, NWRFC pendingSERFC/SJU, MBRFC, NWRFC pending End Site Specific SAC-SMA Project

15 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 15 Precipitation Frequency Studies

16 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 16 Precipitation Frequency Estimates DurationsDurations 5 minutes to 60 days5 minutes to 60 days Annual Exceedance ProbabilitiesAnnual Exceedance Probabilities 1 in 2 to 1 in 10001 in 2 to 1 in 1000 Annual Maximum and Partial Duration ResultsAnnual Maximum and Partial Duration Results High Resolution Spatial EstimatesHigh Resolution Spatial Estimates 30 arc second30 arc second Confidence LimitsConfidence Limits upper and lower 90%upper and lower 90%

17 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 17 Precip Frequency Products & Delivery Web Based DeliveryWeb Based Delivery “Precipitation Frequency Data Server”“Precipitation Frequency Data Server” response is very favorableresponse is very favorable High Quality Maps Produced Using GISHigh Quality Maps Produced Using GIS Interactive Tables and ChartsInteractive Tables and Charts Base GridsBase Grids SeasonalitySeasonality Areal Reduction FactorsAreal Reduction Factors Temporal DistributionsTemporal Distributions DocumentationDocumentation

18 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 18 Example map from Precipitation Frequency Data Server hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/

19 NOAA National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIC Meeting 19 NWS Integrated Water Science Planning Objective Carry out a wide-ranging assessment of NWS water science and technology development necessary to implement a comprehensive suite of high-resolution digital hydrology and water resources analysis and forecast products in the next 5 to 10 yearsCarry out a wide-ranging assessment of NWS water science and technology development necessary to implement a comprehensive suite of high-resolution digital hydrology and water resources analysis and forecast products in the next 5 to 10 years Activities (Apr through Aug) Review relevant NWS water science activities by OHD/HL, OCWWS/NOHRSC, NCEP/EMC, and RFCsReview relevant NWS water science activities by OHD/HL, OCWWS/NOHRSC, NCEP/EMC, and RFCs Assess whether current activities can support efficient and effective delivery of new science for operational implementation of high-resolution gridded water resources products, and if the ongoing R&D efforts are adequate to overcome the foremost science challenges in meeting the objectiveAssess whether current activities can support efficient and effective delivery of new science for operational implementation of high-resolution gridded water resources products, and if the ongoing R&D efforts are adequate to overcome the foremost science challenges in meeting the objective Recommend approaches to maximize the strengths of each NWS water science component with respect to interactions with other NOAA freshwater researchers and with the external community to streamline science-to-operations paths in meeting the objectiveRecommend approaches to maximize the strengths of each NWS water science component with respect to interactions with other NOAA freshwater researchers and with the external community to streamline science-to-operations paths in meeting the objective Deliverable (end of Aug) An executable plan compatible with the NWS Science and Technology Infusion PlanAn executable plan compatible with the NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan Membership (Gary Carter, Mentor) D.-J. Seo (OHD/HL), Don Cline (OCWWS/NOHRSC), Ken Mitchell (NCEP/EMC), Jiayu Zhou (OST), Rob Hartman (RFC)D.-J. Seo (OHD/HL), Don Cline (OCWWS/NOHRSC), Ken Mitchell (NCEP/EMC), Jiayu Zhou (OST), Rob Hartman (RFC)


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