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FOREIGN TRADE IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE Speaker: Andrew England Head of Global Transaction Banking, CEE Bucharest, April 5 th 2011 Agenda:  UniCredit.

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Presentation on theme: "FOREIGN TRADE IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE Speaker: Andrew England Head of Global Transaction Banking, CEE Bucharest, April 5 th 2011 Agenda:  UniCredit."— Presentation transcript:

1 FOREIGN TRADE IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE Speaker: Andrew England Head of Global Transaction Banking, CEE Bucharest, April 5 th 2011 Agenda:  UniCredit in CEE  CEE’s Foreign Trade  Romania’s Foreign Trade  CEE Growth Drivers  How UniCredit can support trade business in CEE

2 2 No. 1 No. 4 No. 5 No. 7 Estonia 2 No. 9 Latvia 2 Russia Bulgaria Serbia Romania No. 10 Lithuania 2 Croatia No. 5 Slovakia No. 5 No. 7 Hungary No. 4 Czech. Rep. 2 Bosnia 1 Slovenia Turkey Mkt. position by Total Assets Country Ukraine No. 1 No. 5 No 2 Poland No. 5 Kazakhstan No. 5 CEE region* ~ € 124 bn total assets 1 ~ 3,900 branches 1 ~ 72,300 employees 1 ~ 30m customers 2 ~ 128k corporate clients 2 ~ dedicated corporate relationship managers 2 *) data as of 3Q 2010Source: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis (1) data as of 1H 2010 (2) data as of YE 2009 UNICREDIT IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE In Top 3 In Top 5 In Top 10

3 3 Forecast of close to 2 Trillion Euros in 2011 for CEE-17 merchandise foreign trade; after 20% drop in 2009, CEE foreign trade steadily recovering, roughly balanced between imports/exports *CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR SOURCE: UniCredit Group Research CEE FOREIGN TRADE: MERCHANDISE TRADE VALUE As comparison, in 2011, for merchandise trade: GERMANY 1.9 Trillion EUR TURKEY: 264 Bln Eur (13% of CEE-17) ITALY: 762 BlnEURRUSSIA: 517 BlnEUR (26% of CEE-17) AUSTRIA: 243 BlnEURPOLAND: 276BlnEUR (14% of CEE-17)

4 4 CEE between 7-8% of world trade, with Asia and EU-15 expected to grow significantly SOURCE: WTO; UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination CEE17 ASIA EU15 N.AMERICA OTHERS CEE FOREIGN TRADE: SHARE IN WORLD TRADE

5 5 Fairly stable industry structure, with manufacturing close to half, confirms CEE’s growing role as a manufacturing region CEE FOREIGN TRADE: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 2005 – 2015F *CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination

6 6 CEE-9*: TOP-10 TRADE PARTNERS 2010 *CEE-9: BG, CZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU, SK, TR SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination Total “merchandise” trade of CEE-9 countries in 2010 was roughly 1.5 Trillion EUR, of which close to half (~47%) was made with the top-10 partners; Germany is by far the largest destination and source for both export/import.

7 7 South Eastern Europe Central Europe Germany and Italy remain the main trading partners of CEE CEE FOREIGN TRADE: GERMANY AND ITALY AS DRIVERS SOURCE: WTO; UniCredit Group Research TO GERMANY to ITALY

8 8 ROMANIA: FOREIGN TRADE VALUE 1999 – 2012F ROMANIA’s merchandise foreign trade followed the same trend as the rest of CEE; largest growing markets are Turkey for exports (+69% yoy 2010) and Russia for imports (+40% yoy 2010) SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination

9 9 ROMANIA: TOP-10 TRADE PARTNERS 2010 SOURCE: INSSE, UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination Total “merchandise” trade of ROMANIA in 2010 was roughly 80 BlnEUR, of which ~68% was made with the top-10 partners; Germany is here too the largest destination and source for both export/import

10 10 ROMANIA: FOREIGN TRADE STRUCTURE 2010 Machinery continued to drive ROMANIA’s foreign trade; transport and textiles lead the export, while chemicals registered the highest %-age deficit. SOURCE: INSSE, UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination

11 11 Before the crisis, although a relative middle place in overall regional trade (8 th ), Romania had the 2 nd fastest growth in the CEE, with an annual average of 17% versus 13% for the region SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR ROMANIA: SHARE IN CEE TRADE

12 12 ROMANIA E GDP (growth, YoY) -7.1%-1.3% Private Consumption (growth, YoY) -9.2%-1.0% Export as % of GDP 23% TURKEY: internal demand E GDP (growth, YoY) % Private Consumption (growth, YoY) % Export as % of GDP 18%20% POLAND: internal & trade E GDP (growth, YoY) +1.7%+3.8% Private Consumption (growth, YoY) +2.1%+3.1% Export as % of GDP 33%35% SLOVAKIA: trade E GDP (growth, YoY) -4.8%+4% Private Consumption (growth, YoY) +0.2%+0.3% Export as % of GDP 70%74% CEE GROWTH: TRADE AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AS DRIVERS EXPORT % in GDP PRIVATE CONSUMPTION SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination Export intensity and private consumption were key in driving growth across the CEE.

13 13 HOW CAN UNICREDIT SUPPORT GROWTH? BY ENABLING FLOWS *SWIFT statistics Feb-2011 **MENA: Middle-East Nord-Africa *** Sep ►STRONG TRANSACTION BANK FRANCHISE IN CEE: 12%ms* in documentary credit  Top 5 bank in main CEE export countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Turkey)  Number 2 in Poland after state-owned no.1  More than 2000 transactions specialists and corresponding banks  Experience of over corporate customers worldwide ►INTERMEDIARY FOR MENA** FLOWS TO CEE: 13%ms*** in documentary credit  Turkey as a spear-head for region's operations  Expertise and strong relationship with main exporters/importers ►EBRD CREDITS TO SMEs IN CEE  Over 430 MEUR to boost flows to real economy in 7 CEE countries **** **** BG, HR, RS, BA, UA, KZ, KG

14 14 HOW CAN UNICREDIT SUPPORT GROWTH? BY DEVELOPING SOLUTIONS TO ADVANCE TRADE ►SCF – SUPPLY CHAIN FINANCING PLATFORM  Buyer centric financing model (post shipment phase of the trade finance cycle)  Innovative approach for working capital financing without classical loan granting process  Involves sell of receivables by the supplier, which in turn has the chance to obtain financing at favorable conditions thanks to the generally better rating of the Buyer ►SPE – SINGLE POINT OF ENTRY FOR L/Gs AND L/Cs  Single entry point to send Letters of Credit (UC SEP L/C) and requests to issue guarantees (UC SEP L/G)  Beneficiaries domiciled in Europe (all countries where UniCredit is present – CEE plus Austria, Germany and Italy). ►Renminbi (RMB) Settlement Program for trade with China s  Improved Supplier Relationship: simple & faster tax rebates processes for Chinese suppliers and reduced costs in the supply chain  Pricing Transparency: increase transparency as pricing of goods without FX risks and costs mark-up  Widening Supplier Base: access to foreign currency in China is limited, RMB settlement can be used to access a wider supplier base and to optimize payment terms

15 15 KEY DETERMINANTS IN GROWING TRADE ►Market proximity relevant for expanding trade; ►Close relationship with bank and operating partner to access new markets; ►Strong local support to invest in value chain linked to manufacturing output; ►Relevant governmental support to manage medium term trade investments (ECAs); ►Tools to manage liquidity, counterparty and country risk; ►Ability to monetize trade receivables.


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