Presentation on theme: "FOREIGN TRADE IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE Speaker: Andrew England Head of Global Transaction Banking, CEE Bucharest, April 5 th 2011 Agenda: UniCredit."— Presentation transcript:
FOREIGN TRADE IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE Speaker: Andrew England Head of Global Transaction Banking, CEE Bucharest, April 5 th 2011 Agenda: UniCredit in CEE CEE’s Foreign Trade Romania’s Foreign Trade CEE Growth Drivers How UniCredit can support trade business in CEE
2 No. 1 No. 4 No. 5 No. 7 Estonia 2 No. 9 Latvia 2 Russia Bulgaria Serbia Romania No. 10 Lithuania 2 Croatia No. 5 Slovakia No. 5 No. 7 Hungary No. 4 Czech. Rep. 2 Bosnia 1 Slovenia Turkey Mkt. position by Total Assets Country Ukraine No. 1 No. 5 No 2 Poland No. 5 Kazakhstan No. 5 CEE region* ~ € 124 bn total assets 1 ~ 3,900 branches 1 ~ 72,300 employees 1 ~ 30m customers 2 ~ 128k corporate clients 2 ~ dedicated corporate relationship managers 2 *) data as of 3Q 2010Source: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis (1) data as of 1H 2010 (2) data as of YE 2009 UNICREDIT IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE In Top 3 In Top 5 In Top 10
3 Forecast of close to 2 Trillion Euros in 2011 for CEE-17 merchandise foreign trade; after 20% drop in 2009, CEE foreign trade steadily recovering, roughly balanced between imports/exports *CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR SOURCE: UniCredit Group Research CEE FOREIGN TRADE: MERCHANDISE TRADE VALUE As comparison, in 2011, for merchandise trade: GERMANY 1.9 Trillion EUR TURKEY: 264 Bln Eur (13% of CEE-17) ITALY: 762 BlnEURRUSSIA: 517 BlnEUR (26% of CEE-17) AUSTRIA: 243 BlnEURPOLAND: 276BlnEUR (14% of CEE-17)
4 CEE between 7-8% of world trade, with Asia and EU-15 expected to grow significantly SOURCE: WTO; UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination CEE17 ASIA EU15 N.AMERICA OTHERS CEE FOREIGN TRADE: SHARE IN WORLD TRADE
5 Fairly stable industry structure, with manufacturing close to half, confirms CEE’s growing role as a manufacturing region CEE FOREIGN TRADE: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 2005 – 2015F *CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
6 CEE-9*: TOP-10 TRADE PARTNERS 2010 *CEE-9: BG, CZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU, SK, TR SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination Total “merchandise” trade of CEE-9 countries in 2010 was roughly 1.5 Trillion EUR, of which close to half (~47%) was made with the top-10 partners; Germany is by far the largest destination and source for both export/import.
7 South Eastern Europe Central Europe Germany and Italy remain the main trading partners of CEE CEE FOREIGN TRADE: GERMANY AND ITALY AS DRIVERS SOURCE: WTO; UniCredit Group Research TO GERMANY to ITALY
8 ROMANIA: FOREIGN TRADE VALUE 1999 – 2012F ROMANIA’s merchandise foreign trade followed the same trend as the rest of CEE; largest growing markets are Turkey for exports (+69% yoy 2010) and Russia for imports (+40% yoy 2010) SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
9 ROMANIA: TOP-10 TRADE PARTNERS 2010 SOURCE: INSSE, UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination Total “merchandise” trade of ROMANIA in 2010 was roughly 80 BlnEUR, of which ~68% was made with the top-10 partners; Germany is here too the largest destination and source for both export/import
10 ROMANIA: FOREIGN TRADE STRUCTURE 2010 Machinery continued to drive ROMANIA’s foreign trade; transport and textiles lead the export, while chemicals registered the highest %-age deficit. SOURCE: INSSE, UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
11 Before the crisis, although a relative middle place in overall regional trade (8 th ), Romania had the 2 nd fastest growth in the CEE, with an annual average of 17% versus 13% for the region SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR ROMANIA: SHARE IN CEE TRADE
12 ROMANIA E GDP (growth, YoY) -7.1%-1.3% Private Consumption (growth, YoY) -9.2%-1.0% Export as % of GDP 23% TURKEY: internal demand E GDP (growth, YoY) % Private Consumption (growth, YoY) % Export as % of GDP 18%20% POLAND: internal & trade E GDP (growth, YoY) +1.7%+3.8% Private Consumption (growth, YoY) +2.1%+3.1% Export as % of GDP 33%35% SLOVAKIA: trade E GDP (growth, YoY) -4.8%+4% Private Consumption (growth, YoY) +0.2%+0.3% Export as % of GDP 70%74% CEE GROWTH: TRADE AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AS DRIVERS EXPORT % in GDP PRIVATE CONSUMPTION SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination Export intensity and private consumption were key in driving growth across the CEE.
13 HOW CAN UNICREDIT SUPPORT GROWTH? BY ENABLING FLOWS *SWIFT statistics Feb-2011 **MENA: Middle-East Nord-Africa *** Sep ►STRONG TRANSACTION BANK FRANCHISE IN CEE: 12%ms* in documentary credit Top 5 bank in main CEE export countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Turkey) Number 2 in Poland after state-owned no.1 More than 2000 transactions specialists and corresponding banks Experience of over corporate customers worldwide ►INTERMEDIARY FOR MENA** FLOWS TO CEE: 13%ms*** in documentary credit Turkey as a spear-head for region's operations Expertise and strong relationship with main exporters/importers ►EBRD CREDITS TO SMEs IN CEE Over 430 MEUR to boost flows to real economy in 7 CEE countries **** **** BG, HR, RS, BA, UA, KZ, KG
14 HOW CAN UNICREDIT SUPPORT GROWTH? BY DEVELOPING SOLUTIONS TO ADVANCE TRADE ►SCF – SUPPLY CHAIN FINANCING PLATFORM Buyer centric financing model (post shipment phase of the trade finance cycle) Innovative approach for working capital financing without classical loan granting process Involves sell of receivables by the supplier, which in turn has the chance to obtain financing at favorable conditions thanks to the generally better rating of the Buyer ►SPE – SINGLE POINT OF ENTRY FOR L/Gs AND L/Cs Single entry point to send Letters of Credit (UC SEP L/C) and requests to issue guarantees (UC SEP L/G) Beneficiaries domiciled in Europe (all countries where UniCredit is present – CEE plus Austria, Germany and Italy). ►Renminbi (RMB) Settlement Program for trade with China s Improved Supplier Relationship: simple & faster tax rebates processes for Chinese suppliers and reduced costs in the supply chain Pricing Transparency: increase transparency as pricing of goods without FX risks and costs mark-up Widening Supplier Base: access to foreign currency in China is limited, RMB settlement can be used to access a wider supplier base and to optimize payment terms
15 KEY DETERMINANTS IN GROWING TRADE ►Market proximity relevant for expanding trade; ►Close relationship with bank and operating partner to access new markets; ►Strong local support to invest in value chain linked to manufacturing output; ►Relevant governmental support to manage medium term trade investments (ECAs); ►Tools to manage liquidity, counterparty and country risk; ►Ability to monetize trade receivables.