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A Study of Crisis Introduction to Key Concepts and Relationships.

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1 A Study of Crisis Introduction to Key Concepts and Relationships

2 The International Crisis Behavior Project, The destabilizing effects of crises, as of conflicts and wars, are dangerous to global security. Understanding the causes, evolution, actor behavior, outcomes, and consequences of crisis is possible by systematic investigation. Knowledge can facilitate the effective management of crises so as to minimize their adverse effects on world order.

3 Objectives of the ICB Project Accumulate knowledge Test hypotheses about effects of crisis-induced stress on coping and choice by decision makers Discovery of patterns in onset, behavior, crisis management, superpower activity, international organizations, outcomes Application of lessons of history for international peace and order.

4 Definition of International Crisis

5 Surprise???

6 Key definitional issues Onset, escalation, de-escalation, impact Crisis, protracted conflict, war Contextual variable –Polarity –Geography –Conflict setting –Ethnicity –Regime –Violence –Third party intervention – including mediation

7 Mediation

8

9 Mediating Intrastate Crises - MISC

10 SYSTEM STRUCTURE STABILITY/INSTABILITY POLYCENTRISM HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF… MULTIPOLARITY MEDUIUM LIKELIHOOD OF… BIPOLARITY LOW LIKELIHOOD OF… HIGH FREQUENCY OF CRISES VIOLENCE IN TRIGGER HIGH STRESS VIOLENCE IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUE INACTIVE AND INEFFECTIVE MAJOR POWER INVOLVEMENT TERMINATION IN NON-AGREEMENT LEGACY: TENSION ESCALATION Polarity-Stability Model

11 Adversarial Proximity-Crisis Model VIOLENCE IN TRIGGER VIOLENCE IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT TERMINATION IN AGREEMENT PROTRACTED CONFLICT NEAR- MEDIUM LIKELIHOOD OF… NEIGHBOR HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF… CONTIGUOUS LOW LIKELIHOOD OF… DISTANT

12 HOME HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF… TERRITORY REGION SAME CONTINENT REMOTE LOW LIKELIHOOD OF… VIOLENCE IN TRIGGER VIOLENCE IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT TERMINATION IN AGREEMENT PROTRACTED CONFLICT Proximity of Crisis to Actor Model

13 CRISIS CONTEXTCRISIS ATTRIBUTES Independent Variables ETHNIC CONFLICT NON-ETHNIC CONFLICT NON-PROTACTED CONFLICT GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA EUROPE MIDDLE EAST POLARITY MULTIPOLARITY BIPOLARITY POLYCENTRISM UNIPOLARITY PROTACTED CONFLICT Intervening Variables LIKELIHOOD OF… HIGH MEDIUM LOW VIOLENCE IN TRIGGER HIGH VALUE THREAT VIOLENCE IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUE ACTIVE AND INEFFECTIVE MAJOR POWER ACTIVITY FREQUENT AND INEFFECTIVE GLOBAL ORGANIZATION INVOLVEMENT AMBIGUOUS OUTCOME TERMINATION IN NON- AGREEMENT Ethnicity-Crisis Model

14 Crises within Protracted Conflict Crisis outside Protracted Conflict HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF… LOW LIKELIHOOD OF… FOREIGN POLICY CRISIS DIMENSIONS Violence in trigger High value threat Violence in crisis management INTERNATIONAL CRISIS DIMENSIONS Major power activity and effectiveness Global organization involvement and effectiveness Ambiguous outcome Termination in nonagreement Protracted Conflict-Crisis Model

15 CRISIS TRIGGER NON-VIOLENT VIOLENT POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO MATCHING BEHAVIOR STRESS SOCIOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS POWER RELATIONS BEHAVIOR NON-VIOLENT VIOLENT Trigger-Behavior Transition Model

16 SERIOUSNESS OF CRISIS VIOLENCE IN TRIGGER HIGH STRESS VIOLENCE IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT LARGE NUMBERS OF ACTORS HIGH MAJOR POWER ACTIVITY MULTIPOLAR BIPOLAR POLYCENTRIC HIGH LEVEL OF INVOLVEMENT ACTIVITY BY MAJOR ORGANS GLOBAL ORGANIZATION INVOLVEMENT Global Organization Involvement Model

17 Under what conditions are crises likely to be mediated? Geographic Region Polarity Period International System Level Geographic Relationship of Crisis Actors Ethnic Nature of Crisis

18 Which actors are most likely to mediate? Single states are most likely to mediate, while RGOs are least likely, for the entire time period Trends Over Time: –Diminishing role of UN & other IOs, as well as groups of states, over time –RGOs have increased role after WWII –Role of single states has steadily increased

19 What effect does mediation have on crisis outcomes? Achieving Agreement : Mediated crises far more likely to end in agreement than unmediated Crisis Legacy: Mediated crises more likely to be followed by reduction in tensions than unmediated No significant relationship between mediation and Content of Outcome or Actor Satisfaction with Outcome

20 Style of Mediation Facilitator/communicator Formulator Manipulator


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