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Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts Presentation to Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform 7 October 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts Presentation to Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform 7 October 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Budget 2015 Macroeconomic Forecasts Presentation to Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform 7 October 2014

2 International Developments & Inflation 2

3 Mixed picture among trading partners 3

4 4 Source : Eurostat “lowflation” is prevailing in euro area

5 Core inflation in Ireland rising steadily since February 5

6 Real economy 6

7 Strength in retail sales has continued into Q3 7

8 Investment has been driven by ‘core’ M&E and construction 8

9 National accounts measure of goods exports very strong 9

10 Outlook and labour market 10

11 Endorsed Budget 2015 forecasts 11 Year-on-year change GDP GNP Nominal GDP (nearest €25m) Personal Consumption Govt Consumption Investment Exports Imports Domestic demand (pp cont) Stocks (pp cont) Net exports (pp cont) HICP GDP Deflator Current a/c (% of GDP)

12 Continued improvements in the labour market 12

13 Labour market outlook Employment growth Agri Industry (inc. B&C) Services Unemployment rate Labour force growth

14 Drivers of labour market outlook 14

15 15 Summary Recovery is gaining momentum and widening Forecasts are being revised upwards for this year and next No-policy-change assumption is made for these forecasts – Subject to revision on Budget day

16 16 Risks External – Geo-political tensions – Weak growth and low inflation in the euro area – Financial market risks Domestic – Potential for more rapid recovery in investment

17 End 17


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