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Do We Need Cinematic Games?. Business challenges Artist & code challenges.

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Presentation on theme: "Do We Need Cinematic Games?. Business challenges Artist & code challenges."— Presentation transcript:

1 Do We Need Cinematic Games?

2 Business challenges Artist & code challenges

3 Games Focus Customers Partners Product Development Services TORONTO Games: The biggest single market

4 Cinematic Gaming Is… Cinematography Simulation Geom. & Texture Processing Story richness & depth

5 Next-Gen Opportunities Market Growth New Franchises New Genres

6 Virtuous Circle Market Growth Source: Deutsche Bank

7 New Franchises, New Genres Console Power Handheld Power Calculation Power (not to scale) ~ st console Odyssey 4D games Network AI Cine-quality Next-Gen Consoles Sony PSP NintendoDS 2D games NES Gameboy 3D games PS2, Xbox, GCB Dreamcast PS One

8 There’s Still Huge Potential Less than 1/3 own consoles. 30% in 3 countries. 15% in “shoulder” markets. Primarily “twitch” genres.

9 Market Growth Current-Gen Warning Signs Current-Gen Warning Signs Market plateau New Franchises New Genres Financial stress

10 Console Market Plateau Source: Informa Media SW sales ($millions)

11 Financial Distress Bankruptcies at publishers & developers. Fewer, bigger titles are bad. Discuss.

12 Financial Distress, Causes of SCOPE (#s of bitmaps, textures, models, audio & source files) Jan ‘00Today 40,000 10,000 Scope Tripled BUDGET ($ millions) Jan ‘00Today ~ $10 ~ $3 Costs Tripled UNITS NEEDED FOR DECENT RETURN Jan ‘00Today ~ 500,000 ~200,000 Risk up 2.5x

13 Next-Gen Ups the Ante Console Power Calculation Power (not to scale) ~ st console Odyssey 4D games MMO AI Cine-quality Next-Gen Consoles 2D games NES Gameboy 3D games PS2, Xbox, GCB Dreamcast PS One Scope increase Est. Scope increase

14 Structure Amplifies Risks Population segments that were traditionally the main customers of core genres are shrinking in 2 of 3 key markets.

15 Challenges & Opportunities Controlling RiskControlling Risk, Skills & Supply, Basic ResearchSkills & SupplyBasic Research

16 And the Bottom Line Is… Cinematic gaming is key to growing the market. Managing risk is critical.

17 Backup

18 Controlling Risk Code Re-use On-target viewing and editing Asset Re-use Productivity increase Schedule predictability C & O Lower-cost platforms = stable cash flow

19 Skills & Supply Shortage Cinematographers Level Designers Character Animators Modelers C & O

20 Cinematography Technique Control data density. Guide player emotions. Challenge: skill shortage.

21 Real Characters & the Uncanny Chasm “Emotional response to an entity's appearance and motion doesn't increase steadily as the entity becomes more human-like. “Just before true human characteristics are achieved, there’s a large dip called the "uncanny valley", where beings such as zombies, mutants, and almost-human aliens live.” Dr. Masahiro Mori A zombie. Really.

22 Story – New Communities of Fun Is this Fun? Communities with different frames of reference. New interpretations: Tragedy Comedy Love Opportunity: 70% don’t own a console! C & O


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