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0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07.

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Presentation on theme: "0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07."— Presentation transcript:

1 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

2 1 ECP is an Independent Financial Advisor, management owned, active since 1997 in Europe. ECPI performs Innovative Portfolio Screening ECPI uses a Proprietary but Transparent Technology: the “ECPI Screening Methodology” developed on client consensus/input, NGOs’ information flow, international treaties, academic studies and our International Advisory Board (see appendix). We aim at capturing Corporate Intangible Value through 400+ screening tests The results of our screening activity are an enhanced Capital Preservation and Alpha Generation We produce Performance Benchmarks, advise Ethical Static/Dynamic CDOs, Hybrid Index structures and Funds of Hedge Funds. E.Capital Partners and its full subsidiary ECPI

3 2 ECPI Business Goals Intangible Value Scouting and Alpha generation: ECPI Alpha Index aims at scouting value in financial markets. ECPI selects “Best in Class” companies by assessing their Intangible Value as an indicator of expected higher Alpha Returns. Socially Responsible Investments and Capital Preservation: By adding additional sector screens (Traditional SRI), ECPI methodology becomes an outstanding Credit Enhancement tool – 3 year 70pct Default Rate reduction. ECPI is the European leader in SRI Advisory leveraging its Ethical Screening Methodology® as the underlying engine of SRI benchmarks and structured products. ECPI performs MARS® – Manager’s Alpha Risk Scoring for Ethical Funds of Hedge Funds.

4 3 European SRI market: a steadily growing trend. Background for Ren Energy € 68,28 billion AUM in Mutual Funds Overall SRI Institutional market among European Investors has grown up to approximately € 1,033 trillion 2 European SR Mutual Funds: 2001– 2005 1 Asset Under Management Currently 432 SR Mutual Funds Strong trend since 1998, and growing. European SR Mutual Funds: Number of Asset Management Product Lines (1984 – 2004) 1 1 Source: E.Capital Partners Fundwatcher “Trends in European SRI”, September 2004 2 Source: Eurosif – Report 2006 “European SRI Study 2006”

5 4 ECPI Alpha Screening: Enhanced Positive Tests Portfolio selection process Global Investment Universe Recommended High Alpha Candidates Alpha Positive screening: Selection of the businesses with high standards of corporate social and environmental responsibility In order to capture Corporate Intangible Value Positive criteria for the positive screening, enhanced by EcoValue21 test Up to 450 sector sensitive environmental and social tests, with a customizable bias: Product Process Environmental Impact Community Relations Diversity Human Resources Opportunistic Cross Border operations Balance Sheet Transparency Corporate Governance Initiatives Forward-Looking Approach: In case of relevant news/facts we evaluate reiteration, reaction, malice, guilt, industry custom of such companies, with a predictive goal

6 5 SRI universe shows high stability and very low default rates Ethical screening acts as an efficient positive filter: over 70% of defaults avoided Corporate Defaults with Investment-Grade Ratings within One Year of Default (Moody’s) 1 Ethical investment universe of 1,700 eligible companies, analyzed and selected according to negative and positive criteria out of a total of more than 2,800 companies covered. Analysis over the 12-month period from 1 st June 2003 to 1 st September 2006 “Downgraded” companies are companies which used to be rated “ethical” but lost the ethical label and were then excluded from the ethical investment universe Evaluation of the probability of “ethical downgrade” events within ECP ethical investment universe 1 Based on ECP’s coverage and ethical universe on default date. Full list presented in appendix

7 6 … very accessible through Bloomberg menu ECPS Ethical Euro Corporate Bond Ethical indices monitored and published Ethical Euro Index (Equity) Ethical Global Government Bond Index

8 7 Renewable Energy: an inexhaustible source  Large Net reserves (es: Solar Energy cannot be exhausted)  Continuous Renew process (Biomass) Bioenergy: Biodiesel, Biogas, Plant oil fuel. Can be obtained from biomass, in particular wood straw maize, sugar beet, oil-seed rape, biogas and plant oils. Its main advantages to be Co2-neutral. Solar Power: Photovoltaic, Solar heating and Chemistry. Energy of the sun (nuclear fusion), which takes the form of electromagnetic radiation. Water Power: Tidal and wave power, Ocean temperature gradient and Thermal energy. Energy of water currents, which can be converted into mechanical energy using suitable machines Wind power: Is the kinetic energy produced by masses of air moving in the atmosphere. Geothermal: Geothermal heat is the heat stored in the upper layer of the earth’s crust. It describes both the energy produced by or stored in the earth. Fuel cells: A fuel cell is a voltaic cell that converts a continuous supply of fuel and an oxidising agent into usable electrical energy. Renewable energy sources have the potential to replace fossil and nuclear energy sources

9 8 Renewables Industry: from risk to opportunity Renewable Energy Industry & Efficiency From risk to opportunity —Sustainability Companies & Governments 1 —Capex in the industry —Policy on renewables Current Risks —Energy Economics —Energy Security —Global Warming Investors — Financing Providers — Participate in the next economic Boom 1 49 countries have policies on renewables in place that will foster rapid growth at clean-energy firms, including big emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India

10 9 The benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting Because climate change is a global problem, the answer must be international Action on climate change will also create significant business opportunities, as new markets are created in low-carbon energy technologies and other low-carbon goods and services Latest warning: the Stern Review (Though criticized…) Stern Review is available at: www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm.www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm

11 10 Why Investing in Renewable Energy: scenario “At Today’s rates of consumption, oil desposits should last another 30 years or so and gas approximately 70 years. Coal will last rather longer – about 200 Years” 1 The increased marketability of renewable energy: the use of new technology has led to steadily falling prices. A fuel cell power plant has fallen in price by more than 90% in the last 10 years. 2 Wind energy as a proportion of total energy production: 3 · Denmark: 20% · Germany: 6% · USA: already 1.5 million households 1) 2) Heinz Deubelbeiss: Alternative Energiequellen stillen Energiedurst (Alternative energy sources quench the thirst for energy), emagazine, 25.04.05 3) Jonathan Bernstein: Alternative Energy – Time to invest? ETFZone.com, 15.06.05

12 11 Why Investing in Renewable Energy: growth forecast Analysts confidently predict the clean-energy business will grow by 20-30% a year for a decade. The Economist, November 16th, 2006 Solar Energy, Wind Energy and Fuel Cells will probably grow from about 16$ billion in global revenues in 2004 to more than 100 $ billion by 2014 according to a report released by Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm)

13 12 Total investment going into clean energy at $63 billion this year, up from $49 billion last year and just $30 billion in 2004 (estimate by New Energy Finance) 1 In light of the longterm risks of investing in conventional energy systems, institutional investors, such as the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS), have begun directing larg blocks of funds to the environmental sector, including to renewable energy, much of it under the rubric of sustainable or socially responsible investing 2 In November 2005, Goldman Sachs committed to investing more than $1 billion in renewable energy projects, including biofuels, solar power, and wind energy 2 Investment in the field by venture capitalists and private-equity firms has quadrupled in the past two years, from some $500m in 2004 to almost $2 billion so far this year 1 Sustainable Investment: a growing trend 1 The Economist, November 16°, 2006 2 From American Energy, The World Watch Institute, September 2006

14 13 Global Share of Renewable Energy

15 14  Sector Validation from ECPI  Strong Financial results  Very Good liquidity (Relative High Market Cap)  Good Rating from fundamental analysis ECPI® Renewable Energy Global Tradeable Performance & Breakdown Features As of 22 January 2007

16 15 ECPI® Renewable Energy Index  Structured Notes  ETFs  Index Trackers By..International Investment Banks and Asset Managers Investment Opportunities

17 16 Corso Italia, 13 20122 Milano Tel: +39 02 80509813 Fax: +39 02 88181210 www.e-cpartners.com Bloomberg: ECPS Reuters: ECAPITAL Disclaimer © COPYRIGHT 2006 by ECPI S.r.l. (wholly owned by E. Capital Partners S.p.a.) all rights reserved. All information contained herein is copyrighted in the name of ECPI S.r.l., and none of such information may be copied or otherwise reproduced, repackaged, further transmitted, transferred, disseminated, redistributed or resold or stored for subsequent use for any such purpose, in whole or in part, in any form or manner or by any means whatsoever, by any person without ECPI S.r.l.’ prior written consent. All information contained herein are obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind and ECPI S.r.l., in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any such information. PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT. This document has been prepared by ECPI Srl (wholly owned by E.Capital Partners S.p.a.) as part of its internal research activity. The information provided herein and, in particular, the data contained in this research report are taken from information available to the public, and refer to the date of this document. While the opinions and information contained in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, ECPI has not independently verified the contents of this document. All information contained herein is obtained by from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind and ECPI, in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any such information. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by ECPI nor shall any of ECPI or its directors, managers, officers or employees have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise), as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Neither ECPI, nor any of its directors, managers, officers or employees, accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise), and accordingly no liability whatsoever shall be assumed by, or shall be placed on ECPI or any of its directors, managers, officers or employees, for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document.Any opinions, forecasts or estimates contained herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this document, and there can be no assurance that the future results of the Company or of the Company Group and/or any future events will be consistent with such opinions, forecasts or estimates. Any information herein is subject to change, update or amendment without notice subsequent to the date of this document, with no undertaking by ECPI to notify of such change, update or amendment any recipient of this document. ECPI publishes researches on a regular basis. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information. All the information contained herein is copyrighted in the name of ECPI, and none of such information may be copied or otherwise reproduced, repackaged, further transmitted, transferred, disseminated, redistributed or resold, or stored for subsequent use for any such purpose, In whole or in part, in any form or manner or by any means whatsoever, by any person without ECPI’ prior written consent. This document is not, nor may it be construed as to constitute, an offer for sale or subscription of or a solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any financial instrument. Accordingly, this document may not be used as a solicitation or an offer for sale or subscription, and any solicitation or offer shall be made only in accordance with all applicable laws and regulation, including, whenever applicable, the filing of a prospectus with the relevant Authorities. ECPI does not perform asset management activity. No part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. This publication has been prepared on behalf of ECPI solely for information purposes. Additional information available on request. Paolo Sardi – CEO & Partner m.calcaterra@e-cpartners.com


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