Presentation on theme: "The World Problematique The Revolutionary Mutation of Self-Contained Problems into an Involved Problematique Aurelio Peccei The Predicament of Mankind."— Presentation transcript:
The World Problematique The Revolutionary Mutation of Self-Contained Problems into an Involved Problematique Aurelio Peccei The Predicament of Mankind SUCCESSO, June 1970. Pp. 149-156 This sequence of diagrams was drawn and interpreted from Professor Hasan Ozbekhan’s study for the Club of Rome Project.
A Problem areas are symbolized by differently colored shapes arbitrarily and randomly positioned, merely trying to represent situations often experienced in the past when space and time were aplenty, and therefore interactions among problem areas, especially in terms of the world context, were weak or even nonexistent.
B Our analytic habit of attacking each of the problem areas separately and attempting to find discrete solutions in each area still dominates our mind. But already we recognize the existence of certain contiguities and interrelationships among problem areas.
C This was originated by the phenomenal growth which has occurred in everything -- including our problem. Now, the continuation of these growth trends is creating clusterings and overlaps, which we may perceive superficially, but whose real structure and dynamics escape us.
D In actual fact, the situation tends increasingly to appear as a single but opaque mass or system, whose internal relationships and fields of force are however at present extremely confused and impossible to delineate.
Only by a very serious attempt to model the complex in its entirety may we hope to reveal its morphology. It could for example resemble what is shown in the last diagram, a composite dynamic core and differing intensities of interfaces and relationships, all of which must be identified and organized into a unified compound of perception and understanding. E
Ozbekhan adds that, by means of modeling the situation correctly, it will become feasible to penetrate the areas of interdependence among problems and clusters of problems, and to manipulate the models artificially - so as to observe the behavior of the situation’s components under differently structured configurations, and thus attain the scope of establishing a first rational base to elaborate suggestions for curative or corrective action. E