Onshore WIND Prospects 6 When all areas where wind farms cannot be developed are removed; High population density Military areas Commercial interests (e.g. mining / fishing… Civilian aviation sites National parks and forests Historic sites … Where wind speeds are greater than 6.5 m/s (@80 m hub height) Assuming an installation density of 8 MW/km2 Results; Mean 6.1 GW Maximum 12 GW Min 1.5 GW
Economics of wind 7 Av. LC (5% DR) Av. LC (10% DR) DR) Benefits of wind power integration as factor of discount rate, fuel prices, and the social cost of carbon
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) 8 CEDRO has completed a concise update on CSP technology. The document can be downloaded soon from CEDRO’s website Proper solar resource assessment is being undertaken by RECREE (SolarMed) project for the region
9 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Technical feasibility limit: 1800 kWh/m 2 /y Economic feasibility limit: 2000 kWh/m 2 /y The higher the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), the more power is generated by a particular technology Direct Normal Irradiance
Solar CSP in Lebanon Slope + Water + DNI Potential is there, therefore CSP is a matter of financial viability!
PV Farms 12 Techno-economic study underway for PV farms in Lebanon (CEDRO) – expected publication date (August 2012) Constraints; Area; it’s estimated that (mean) 6.4 acres (25,900 m 2 ) are required to generate 1 megawatt of electricity using PV panels. This equates to almost five football fields of area per megawatt of electricity generated (NREL). Costs: Approximate $2,000,000/MW (Turnkey) excluding land rent (land rent = $5/m2 & 2.5% of capital cost for O&M). Expected; Levelised cost = $c24 – 26/kWh
Hydro-power from non-river sources 13 CEDRO is undertaking an assessment of hydro-power potential from non-river sources; Irrigation channels Water distribution networks Electrical power plants Water treatment plants To date; 0.73 MW from irrigation (yet data availability a problem) 0.992 MW from water distribution (data a problem) 5.26 MW from power plants 0.123 MW from WWTP (data also an issue as is the entire WWTP sector) Total: 7.1 MW
TASK 1: Resource Assessment TypeRanking Residues from fellings1 Residues of olive trees 2 Residues of fruit trees Residues of cereals3 Energy crops 4 Cake by-products5 Waste wood6 Municipal sewage sludge7 Animal fat 8 Slaughterhouse residues Yellow grease9 Landfill potential10
Task 3. Future scenarios Energy useScenario IScenario IIScenario IIIScenario IV Primary energy (GWh)695323545171543 Final Energy Electricity (GWh)93447573261 Electricity (MWe)11962933 % of total (4000 MW)3%1.5%0.23%0.8% Heat (ktoe)131781439 % of total (347 ktoe in 2006)37.7%22.5%4%11.2% Transport (ktoe)271281439 % of total (1511 ktoe in 2008) 18%1.8%1%2.6% Annual contribution of bioenergy to end-uses by year 2030
Geothermal Power 17 TASKS 1Geothermal Resource Assessment 2Recoverable Resource Estimates 3Required Drilling and Power Producing Technologies and their Economic Feasibility 4Environmental Impacts of Geothermal Power Production 5Barriers to Geothermal Power Development in Lebanon April 2013April 2012
Microgeneration 18 u-CHP (e.g. Fuel cells) ASHP GSHP Microwind PV SHW ‘Micro-generation’ can be defined as the production of electricity or heat from a low- carbon source, at capacities no more than 50kWe or 45kWth (UK definition).
Microgeneration 19 Microwind PV SHW Most mature and cost-effective 300 litres; 1200 – 1500 USD Payback period; 2- 5 years Expensive but costs reducing 1 kWp; 5,000- 6,000 USD with storage 20-30 years Very location specific 1 kWp; 2,500- 4,000 USD with storage 10-20 years
The CEDRO Legacy The importance of stirring the local market 30 The commercial maturity of new and renewable energy technologies relative to market penetration (Foxon et al. 2005) CEDRO IMPACT (9.73 million USD)
The CEDRO Impact; Market Creation and Employment 31 Expression of Interest (EOI); Lots (e.g.); 1-PV 2-SHW 3-Energy efficiency 2008; PV; 10 firms applied, 7 passed SHW; 11 firms applied, 9 passed EE; 3 firms applied,3 passed 2010; PV; 27 firms applied, 13 passed SHW; 23 firms applied, 14 passed EE; 19 firms applied,7 passed (+ additional microwind Lot where 23 applied and 11 passed) Each of these companies employs between 15 – 50 + persons.
The CEDRO Legacy In brief; CEDRO assisted in creating technical capacity building and initiated markets for small-scale renewable energy, esp. photovoltaic systems and commercial SHW systems Shed light onto the renewable energy resources of the country, esp. wind, biomass, and geothermal. Created opportunities for local contractors and consultants, Pushed forward the RE agenda by assisting in influencing policies like net metering and how it can be applied technically Focused on awareness on RE for the young generation Hopefully an overhauled and informative website 32
What should be done next – small scale? Other technologies require market initiation, esp. bioenergy demonstration projects. Most importantly, market development policies are required… BACK TO THE S-Curve; – If the government of Lebanon does not introduce bold measures to financially support renewables, CEDRO’s work (and others like it) will go to waste! – Feed-in tariffs, even in a reduced form, must be assessed and introduced intelligently to take into account the current financial situation of the country, and how to subsidize this support while ensuring its’ effectiveness. 33
For large-scale renewable; – Assessment of integration and control into the national grid – National Regulatory Authority or its alternative (NRA) – and capacity building for this Authority in licensing PPA – We can’t wait 3 years after NRA is established!!! 34 What should be done next – large scale?
Please contact CEDRO at: T/F: +961-1-981944 E: firstname.lastname@example.org www.cedro-undp.org Beirut, Maarad Street, Building 287B, 1 st floor CEDRO_UNDP Thank you