Presentation on theme: "North Ops PS Unit Manager"— Presentation transcript:
1North Ops PS Unit Manager Fire Weather / Predictive ServicesJohn SnookNorth Ops PS Unit ManagerIASC at Clovis CA – 4/1/08
2Predictive Services The Predictive Services Units (PSU) at Redding and Riverside each have three to four CWCG- hired meteorologistseach, as well as two Intel staff. There is one other PSU position, which oversees RAWS coordination, NFDRS and WIMS region-wide. The PSU provide products that concentrate mainly on the 2-7 daytime frame, but do have products extending out to monthly and seasonal realms. A key mission is to provide local to national-level managers the information they need to maximize the cost-efficientuse of available resources.The California PSUs have positions additional to the national PS program template. These are for the purposes of Smoke Manage-ment and the heavy firefighter training workload in the region. We coordinate with CA Air Resources Board and local air districts, attempting to maximize Prescribed burning opportunities while avoiding adverse impacts on public health.
3National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Along with Predictive Services, the NWS, operating from 10 offices in 4 states, helps to deliver the R-5 Fire Weather program. The NWS concentrates on operational forecasts and warnings in the shorter term, Days 1-3. To do this, they utilize staffs of about 10 ‘Core’ forecasters, who work rotating shifts to cover all NWS program areas. Each NWS office designates a forecaster as their Fire Weather program leader.The NWS provides these products and services: Narrative fire weather forecasts (FWFs and ECCDAs), National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) trend forecasts, the Red Flag program, Spot forecast service, some training (primarily S-290), and Met service at Incidents (IMETs). The NWS websites also provide useful climatological tools, doppler radar data, and public warning information..
4√ (teach any course) √ (mainly S-290) Group that provides this product or service to CA Fire AgenciesProduct or ServicePredictive Services Unit(at Redding and Riverside)NOAA / National WeatherService (at 10 offices)7-Day Significant FirePotential Product√Daily Weather Outlooks(SoCal and NorCal versions)Red Flag Program (Watch,Warning, Cancellation)Fire Weather ForecastNarrative (FWF) / ECCDAsNFDRS Trend ForecastsSmoke Transport / StabilityForecast productdaily Smoke CoordinationConf call at 1300 LTSpot Forecast - PrescribedBurns and WFUSpot Forecast - WildfireMonthly OutlooksSeasonal AssessmentsIncident Service (IMETs)√ (State incidents)Firefighter Weather training√ (teach any course)√ (mainly S-290)
5Redding Fire Weather Center Riverside Fire Weather Center CONTACT INFORMATION:Redding Fire Weather CenterOffice: FAX:Staff: John Snook, Brenda Belongie, Steve Leach, Basil NewmerzhyckyRiverside Fire Weather CenterOffice: FAX:Staff: Tom Rolinski, Matt Shameson and two (?) vacancies
6Redding: Riverside: HOURS OF OPERATION IN 2008: From about 5/10 to 11/05: 7 days/week 7 am – 5 pmUntil about 5/10 and after 11/05: Mon-Fri 7 am – 5 pmRiverside:From about 5/1 to 10/31: 7 days/week 6 am – 4 pmFrom about 11/1 to 4/30: Mon-Fri 5:30 am – 3:30 pm
7several of these listed The FW AOP documentsthe provision of the fire weather program jointly from the Predictive Ser-vices and the National Weather Service.It has information ona host of topics, withseveral of these listedon the next frame.III
8The Fire Weather Annual Operating Plan is updated annually, following an Interagency meeting in March. The new (2008) version will be postedto the PS and NWS websites in May. Below are the main AOP sections:I. INTRODUCTIONCHANGES FOR 2008III. SERVICE AREAS FOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICESAND PREDICTIVE SERVICE UNITS (some very useful maps in thissection)NWS SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIESV. WILDLAND FIRE AGENCY SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIESJOINT RESPONSIBILITIESVII. AGENCY SIGNATURES / EFFECTIVE DATES OF AOPAPPENDICES: (Including Appendices covering Forecast parameters,Links to both NWS and PSU forecast/product examples, Coordination callsInfo, PSU and NWS office contact information, and FW Program Assess-ment Team charter.
9This is the home pageof the NationalPredictive ServicesUnit at NIFC/NICC
10Service Areas in northern California PredictiveServiceAreas innorthernCaliforniaNE California PSAEastside PSANorthwesternMountain PSANorthCoastPSANOPS- ReddingSac Valley/Foothills PSANorthernSierra PSAMid Coast toMendocino PSASF BayArea PSA
11Northwestern Mtns PSA Northern Sierra PSA Shasta-Trinity NF Here are a couple of closer-up examples. Notice that the Fire Danger Rating Areas (FDRA) are the basic building blocks of a PSA.LassenNFKlamath NFPlumasNFShasta-Trinity NFSix Rivers NFCalfire UnitsTahoeNFEl DoradoNFNorthwestern Mtns PSANorthern Sierra PSA
13Predictive Service Products: Seven-Day Significant Fire Potential: Issued dailythroughout fire season in all Geographic Areas, and year-around in CA.Has become a very popular product for many fire personnel.Daily Weather Outlook: A tool for quick self-briefings,displaying gridded humidity data and general winds for Days 1and 2, with a PS-written Synopsis, and 3-7 day FW highlights.Monthly Fire Danger / Fire Weather Outlook:A detailed look at the month ahead, issued on the 1st of each new month.Fire Season Outlooks: Produced twice a year by both GACC’s, usuallya preliminary by May 1st and final by July 1st. (Updated end of Aug if needed)ADDITIONALLY IN CALIFORNIA:Site-specific (Spot) forecasts: whenever Smoke dispersion is an issueSmoke Transport/ Stability forecast: Produced dailywhenever significant burn activity is occurring (most of the year).
157-Day Significant Fire Potential The product is broken out for each PSA within a Geographic Area, and for each of Days It combines effects of weather, fuels, and resources.Research was done on correlations between past weather (RAWS), fuel dryness levels, & large fire occurrence. Weather models are applied to predict future RAWS weather and its effect on fuel dryness. This leads to prediction of when and where potential for significant and/or large fires is greatest Days Lightning and wind events can be added as ‘triggers’.ConceptualModelSimplified
167-Day Significant Fire Potential Product High Risk DaysA high risk day is a day where an ignition or significant weather trigger and an appropriate level of fuel dryness combine to create conditions that historically have resulted in a significant fire event for a particular area.Combining Weather, Fuels, and ResourcesddddSignificant Weatheror Ignition TriggerFuel Dryness LevelsResource Information
24In reviewing the recent weather, we often include precipitation PON and Temp DFN info
25WRITTEN FORECAST SUMMARY FOR APRIL 2008: Northern California Geographic AreaNorthern CaliforniaPrecipitation OutlookRanging from Near Normal to Above normal.Forecast percent-of-normal range: %Temperature OutlookNear Normal to a little Below Normal, with departures ranging from +1.5º F to -3.0º F.Fuels and Fire Danger ConcernsFor those areas not under snow, the larger size classes of dead fuels had an extended drying opportunity during March. Low elevation annual grasses are expected to remain green through the month, with new grass growth extending to progressively higher terrain as snowpack recedes. With the current conditions, the only concern for elevated fire danger would be with a sustained dry wind, in areas where dead and/or dry 1-, 10- and 100- hr fuels, and/or dormant brush predominates.Prescribed fire implicationsWith the dry and mild to warm March weather, much of the mid elevation burn sites have lost snow cover and are drying to the point of availability for underburn operations. Possible wet weather in early April could put this on hold, or even reverse it for a time. However these areas could recover and dry quickly in mid or late April, with the longer daylight hours. Higher elevations and some north aspects should remain snow covered thoughout the month.MiscellaneousWeather forecast confidence: Precipitation: just 55% Temperatures: 65%Resources: Engine and crew capacity are adequate for initial attack.
26North OpsSeptember 2007 OutlookNorth OpsApril 2008 OutlookExample of two North Ops monthly Fire Potential maps, one from an Outlook last fire season, and the other ‘hot off the press’
27Summary of links for routine, California PS Unit products: 7-Day Significant Fire Potential:NOPS –SOPS –Daily Weather Outlook:NOPS –SOPS –Monthly Outlook:NOPS –SOPS –Seasonal Outlook:NOPS –SOPS –
28Other products and services provided by CA Predictive Services Units in 2008: Briefings daily in fire season, and miscellaneous conference calls on request. We routinely hold conference with the NWS offices on fire season mornings that have either ‘Red Flag’ weather going, IMETs in field, etc..NEW in 2008 – Available via VTC (and hopefully Web download/playback )Training (Fire Weather…all S-series classes e.g. S-290, 390; Smoke-related, e.g. RX-410; Burn boss, e.g.RX-300; NFDRS (S-491); WIMS, ECC sessions; Weather observations)Site-specific (Spot) forecasts for prescribed burns where smoke transport isa potential issue. [Redding does of these annually!]Smoke Transport /Stability ForecastDaily Smoke Coordination Conference call: participants are GACC Met, CARB, burners, and air districts. Call held at 1300 LT throughout the year, as necessary. These have proven to be an excellent forum to discuss ongoing burns, new burns planned, air quality issues, marginal burn days, fuel loadings, etc. When burn location and/or meteorology make it feasible, the PS GACC mets can advocate for our burners in Marginal burn day situations.Technical Assistance (WIMS and NFDRS help, RAWS siting visits, other field meteorology assistance, climatology, and other miscellaneous)
29daily Smoke Transport / A click on our home pagewill bring you to this forecastJust click on ‘Daily SmokeForecast’ in the SmokeMonitoring subsection.an example of ourdaily Smoke Transport /Stability forecast
30To the left is a newlook for this product,that we are experi-menting with lately.Tom Rolinski andBasil Newmerzhyckyare the leads on it.
31Daily Smoke Coordination conference all: Redding and Riverside Predictive Servicesco-host a Conference call at 1300 local time.Dial: Passcode:These calls are held daily from spring burning season through the fall burning season, and as needed in winter.Participants include CARB, the Air districts, burners, and GACC meteorologists from the 2 Predictive Services Units.These have proven to be an excellent forum to discuss ongoing burns, new burns planned, air quality issues, marginal burn days, fuel loadings, etc.
32Here’s what we try hardto help our burnersavoid, as they work toaccomplish theprescribed burning.
33Site-Specific (Spot) Weather Forecasts · Have the detail the General forecast lacks · Can be tailored to the most critical timeperiods· Include the effects of topography:- Local winds, and windshifts- Inversions, and time of dissipation- Slope and aspect considerations
34To obtain a Spot forecast, an on-site weather observation is mandatory!Observations should be both:Representative of the siteTimely
35Relative Humidity Rule of Thumb: For every 20ºF increase in air temperature, the RH decreases by about halfTEMPDEW PTRH50º F100%70º50º50%90º25%
39SPOT FORECAST EXAMPLE REDDING INTERAGENCY FIRE WEATHER OFFICE 0830 PST Wednesday Nov. 28, 2007Spot Forecast for North Coble burn, Hat Creek RD, Lassen NFT34N R5E Secs 1,2 and T35N R5E Secs 34,35 Elev ’ Flat to North aspectsac Fuel: Brush, timber, and slash Procter Creek drainageBased on weather from Ladder Butte RAWS ending 0718 PST today. 24-hr max/min info: Temps 39/ RH 95/35/73% Winds mainly NE 5-9 gusts mph overnight, but latest ob has NW 6 though peak gust south 14 mph*** NOTE - All forecast winds are 20-ft level (per your request) unless noted otherwise ***Discussion: High pressure aloft will strengthen today, with NE to east gradient winds in the morning, giving way to predominantly SE breezes this afternoon. Another cool but likely dry low pressure trough will swing from NW to SE across northern CA in two phases from late tomorrow into Saturday morning. SW to West gradient winds could increase some on ridges tonight. High pressure rebuilds some on late Sat. into Sunday, before a more moist and mild Pacific trough moves into northwest CA by late Monday. At this time, it looks like about an 80% chance of rain from that system, but with light totals - probably .10” or less.Today: Mostly sunny with CWR 0%. Max temps 42-47, with minimum RH 24-32% this afternoon. Wind primarily NE to SE 2-6 gusts 9-11 mph this morning, becoming mainly SE to South 3-7 gusts mph in the afternoon. Mixing height will barely reach 1000’ AGL, with transport winds NE or East 5-8 mph this morning, becoming SE to SSW 7-11 mph in the afternoon.Tonight: ………..Thursday: ………..Outlook for Friday through Sunday: …………..
40Upon request, we do Spots for long-term WFUs Upon request, we do Spots for long-term WFUs. This was Kingsley, MNF in ’06.
42around your PSA are showing. These weather obs can come from a variety The ROMAN program is an excellent way to keep track of what the observationsaround your PSA are showing. These weather obs can come from a varietyof agencies. From the National Forests, they are nearly all RAWS stations.
43ROMAN can also provide you a 5-Day Table of Max/Min Temps, RH, or Winds. The example below is the Relative Humidity in CA’s far southern mountains, over the final 5 days of March 2008.
44You can find this product on the Predictive Services ‘Fuels/ Fire Danger’ page, right hand sideStatewide, on Mondayafternoon, 3/31/8Southern CAin Feb ‘07
45Online product coming soon – This is not online yet, but regression equation work to finalize it will be done soon. Russ Gripp and Tom Rolinski, working with CEFA/DRI, are Predictive Svcs product developers for it.
55PRODUCTS AND SERVICES provided by the NWS in 2008: ECCDAs (ECC Dispatch Area forecasts), found ona new CA NWS FW Web page. ECCDA parts are drawn from the Fire Weather Forecasts (FWFs), which can be found on the same web pageNFDRS trend forecasts for fire seasonall wildfire Spot forecasts (and NWS can provideprescribed burn spots also)Red Flag program (Watches and Warnings)some Training (especially S-290 classes)provide IMET service at incidents
56Red Flag Program has three stages: FIRE WEATHER WATCH RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLATION
57RED FLAG conditions are a combination of dry fuels and usually either: Dry lightning (or any significant lightning event coming just after extended hot/dry weather)ORWindy, low-humidity weather (For areas westof the Cascade/Sierras these are frequently Northto East Winds, while for the eastside areas, theytend to be Southwest or West winds).
58NWS Fire Weather Forecast Zones (FWFs) NWS Fire Weather Forecast Zones (FWFs)
59From the NWS: Emergency Command Center Dispatch Area forecasts: ECCDAs These forecasts are put together by the National Weather Service, oneper ECC dispatch area (based onDPAs). The input for ECCDAs comesfrom NWS Fire Weather Forecast Zones (FWFs).Remember, FWFs and ECCDAs are ‘General’ forecasts. This means theywill be broad-brushed, and suitable for planning purposes, but not to betaken as a site-specific forecast.This is what our ECCs now use to provide the a.m. and p.m. radiobroadcasts to our field fire personnelForecasts are accessed through the NWS Calif Fire Wx webpageGACCs (Redding and Riverside) no longer issue daily text forecasts