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Fine-scale predictions of perennial pepperweed invasion in a brackish tidal marsh Vanessa Tobias, Giselle Block, Emilio Laca.

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Presentation on theme: "Fine-scale predictions of perennial pepperweed invasion in a brackish tidal marsh Vanessa Tobias, Giselle Block, Emilio Laca."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fine-scale predictions of perennial pepperweed invasion in a brackish tidal marsh Vanessa Tobias, Giselle Block, Emilio Laca

2 Perennial Pepperweed Lepidium latifolium LELA

3 forestryimages.org Creates monocultures

4 water.ca.gov Displaces marsh animals. Here: salt marsh harvest mouse

5 Spreads by Rhizomes and Seeds

6 Marshes are at high risk for pepperweed invasion Vanderhoof et al. 2009

7 Marshes are at high risk for pepperweed invasion Vanderhoof et al. 2009

8 Management Needs for LELA Efficient search models Efficient search models Eradication plan for wetlands Eradication plan for wetlands

9 San Pablo Bay NWR San Francisco Bay San Pablo Bay Suisun Bay Sacramento Delta Sacramento Golden Gate

10 Project Area 10 km 4 km Bay Ag Land

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12 Bay Mapping of LELA patches by field crews before and after spraying

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15 Channels, shoreline, & levees Elevation (LiDAR) Vegetation Disturbance Explanatory variables used in the model

16 Channels, shoreline, & levees Elevation (LiDAR) Vegetation Disturbance LELA Patches

17 Deviance Explained = 27% Bay Ag Land Map of predicted probability of invasion

18 LELA Present in 2005 Potential Habitat Search Area Bay Ag Land A practical application of modelled probabilities: Maps identifying potential habitat

19 True Positives False Positives Search Area False Negatives Bay Ag Land

20 True Positives False Positives Search Area False Negatives Bay Ag Land Potential habitat that hasn’t been invaded yet shows up as “false positives” in our model

21 New LELA Invasions 2010 Potential Habitat Search Area Bay Ag Land New patches mapped in 2010 as a test case for the model

22 Focus search and efforts for LELA on levees and channel berms.

23 Number of Patches Percent Cover of Pepperweed

24 No Spray Spray

25 Herbicides are an effective control for LELA in areas where mechanical control is impractical.

26 Postdoctoral Scholar University of California, Davis Department of Plant Sciences Vanessa D. Tobias Questions ?


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