2Objectives (slide 1 of 2)16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyExplain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.Discuss the use of population pyramids to examine population structures.16.2 Theories and Perspectives on Population GrowthCompare and contrast theories and perspectives of population growth.16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesAnalyze the processes that shape the growth of cities.Illustrate theories of urban growth.Describe general trends in urbanization.
3Objectives (slide 1 of 2) 16.4 Urbanism and City Life Discuss sociological theories of the role of community.16.5 The Future: Population, Cities, and EnvironmentExamine the role of new technology in population distribution.Discuss how social life is changing in rural areas.Analyze how population increases and increased consumption affect the environment.
4Demography Demography: The scientific study of human populations Population: The people who inhabit a country or geographic regionCensus: A survey of the entire population of a country or region counting the number of people and their characteristicsCensus undercount: The number of people missed in a census; includes illegal immigrants, the homeless, and vagrants, as well as people who, for some reason, did not want to be countedLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.Demography is the scientific study of human populations. It is concerned with the size and composition of populations as well as with their rate of growth and the movement of people from one location to another. When demographers speak of a population, they are referring to the people who inhabit a country or geographic region. Most demographic research focuses on social facts in the form of statistics describing populations. Those statistics are usually obtained using a combination of questionnaires or social surveys and a census. A census is a survey of the entire population of a country or region counting the number of people and their characteristics. A census is taken in the United States every 10 years. Many other countries also conduct censuses on a regular basis to monitor population changes and plan social policy. There are other sources, such as birth records and death records, that are often used by researchers to identify causes of death and study factors influencing mortality rates. Like any other research method, the census is not perfect. The census undercount is the number of people missed in a census and includes illegal immigrants, the homeless, and vagrants, as well as people who, for some reason, did not want to be counted. The Bureau of the Census estimates there were about 36,000 people (0.01%) who were over-counted by the census (counted twice), while 2.1% of the black population and 1.5% of the Hispanic population was undercounted. Undercounts of minorities can occur when those groups are more likely to be homeless, illegal, or recently moved.
5Population ChangesBalancing equation (sometimes called the basic demographic equation): A simple equation that expresses population growth as a function of four factorsPopulation(t2) = Population(t1) + Births – Deaths + Net MigrationNet migration: The number of people moving into the geographic area minus the number of people leaving the areaNatural rate of increase: The rate of increase in a population due to births and deathsLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.Over most of recorded human history, the world population remained fairly stable and small at roughly a half million people. However, beginning between 200 and 300 years ago, population began to grow rapidly. Today there are more than seven billion people in the world, and that number is projected to grow to 9.3 billion by 2050 and to 10.1 billion people by the end of the century. This rapid increase in population has made clear the need to understand population growth. The key to understanding population growth lies in what demographers call the balancing equation (sometimes called the basic demographic equation)—a simple equation that expresses population growth as a function of four factors. This equation says that the population at time 2 (t2) is determined by the population at time 1 (t1) plus the number of births minus the number of deaths plus the net migration— the number of people moving into the geographic area minus the number of people leaving the area. The natural rate of increase is the rate of increase in a population due to births and deaths ignoring net migration. Adding in migration provides the rate of increase in the population.
6Population ChangesDoubling time: The number of years it would take for the population to double in size if it were to continue to grow at its current rateLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.The US population is increasing at a rate of 0.89%, or less than 1% a year. Demographers often compute one more statistic to make this growth rate meaningful: They compute the doubling time for a population, or the number of years it would take for the population to double in size if it were to continue to grow at its current rate. This is approximately 70 divided by the growth rate. Some doubling times for the United States, Africa, and the world as a whole are shown in Figure For the United States between 2012 and 2013, the doubling time is 78 years. The world as a whole was growing at a rate of 1.2% annually in 2012 for a projected doubling time of 35 years. Africa was doubling every 23 years.
7FertilityFecundity: The maximum possible number of children a woman can have during her lifetimeFertility rate: The average number of children born per woman over her lifetimeReplacement-level fertility: The average number of births per woman required to replace the populationTotal birth rate: The average number of live births per year per thousand women in the populationCrude birth rate: The average number of live births per year per thousand people in the populationLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.In theory, during a woman’s childbearing years, a woman could have as many as 20 or more children. This maximum possible childbearing is called fecundity. However, most women do not even begin to give birth to that number of children, either in the United States or in any other country. The actual rate of births is the fertility rate— the average numberof children born per woman over her lifetime. In 2012, the fertility rate in the United States was 2.1, which is roughly equal to the replacement level fertility— the average number of births per woman required to replace the population in most industrialized countries. In contrast, in 2012, the fertility rate for the world as a whole was 2.4 and ranged from a low of 1.1 in Latvia and Taiwan to a high of 7.1 in Niger. Higher birth rates are often found in poorer countries depending more on agriculture because the entire household often participates in agricultural production, providing an economic incentive to have more children. In contrast, in richer countries with complex divisions of labor and jobs requiring greater skills, children are more of an economic burden than an economic advantage, encouraging lower birth rates. These countries reflect general trends for developing countries (like Niger) to have high fertility and growing populations, European countries (like Latvia) to have low fertility and shrinking populations, and other developed countries (like the United States) to have moderate fertility and slow population growth.It is also possible to look at birth rates—the number of births per year. The total birth rate is the average number of live births per year per thousand women in the population. Less accurate but often the only statistic that can be computed from data available for many countries is the crude birth rate— the average number of live births per year per thousand people in the population. In the United States for 2012, the estimated crude birth rate is 13.7 per thousand.
8The US Postwar Baby Boom Baby boom: A period of time in which the birth rate was elevated for several yearsLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.Fertility rates sometimes change dramatically over time. The best known example of a dramatic but temporary change in birth rates in the United States began just after World War II, when the United States experienced a baby boom— a period of time in which the birth rate was elevated for several years. During this time, there was a decrease in childless and one-child families but little increase in couples having three or more children. The baby boom peaked in 1957, but the elevated birthrate, of more than 20 live births per 1,000 population, continued until 1964 (Figure 16-2). Several reasons have been suggested for the baby boom. In the language of the sociological imagination, these constitute public issues that affected large numbers of people during those times. Returning soldiers from World War II were eager to get on with their lives by getting married and starting households. High wages and prosperity, along with the GI Bill, gave them access to affordable house mortgages, which encouraged family formation. Huge suburbs providing mass-produced housing were being constructed in places like Levittown. At the same time women, who were no longer welcome in factories where they had worked during World War II, faced many social pressures on them to marry and have children. As a result, the age of marriage declined and rates of marriage and the birth rate went up dramatically.
9Global Birth RatesBirth rates vary dramatically from country to country.Learn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.Birth rates vary dramatically from country to country (Figure 16-3). Highest birth rates are found in low-income countries such as in Africa, where the average birth rate is 36 per thousand. Medium birth rates (18 to 19 per thousand) are found in Asia, Oceania, and Latin America and Caribbean. Low birth rates are found in North America (13 per thousand) and Europe (11 per thousand). The crude birth rate in the United States is now about 13.7 births per thousand people annually. China has instituted tough policies to reduce its birth rate by penalizing families with more than one child, encouraging the use of birth-control measures, and, in some cases, even resorting to forced sterilization or forced abortions.
10Mortality Mortality: The incidence of death in a population Crude death rate: The number of deaths per year for every thousand people in a populationLife expectancy: The average number of years people are expected to liveLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.Another factor that obviously affects population is mortality— the incidence of death in a population. A commonly used measure of mortality is the crude death rate— the number of deaths per year for every thousand people in a population. Death rates vary considerably around the globe, but not nearly as much as birth rates. The lowest death rates are in Latin America and the Caribbean (6 deaths per thousand annually), while the highest death rates are found in Africa and Europe (11 deaths per thousand).For more than a century, death rates have dropped substantially in most countries around the world. While those drops have been greatest in industrialized nations, there have also been significant drops in death rates in less developed countries. As a result of decreased death rates, the life expectancy— the average number of years people are expected to live—has increased substantially. In the United States, the average life span increased from 40 years in 1900 to 79 years in 2012 (Figure 16-4). Generally, global life expectancies are inversely related to death rates, with countries having greater wealth and resources able to use resources to lower death rates and increase life expectancy. As a result, the lowest life expectancy is found for Africa (58), next lowest but much higher life expectancy for Asia (70), and highest life expectancies for North America, Europe, and Oceania.
11Migration (slide 1 of 2)Migration: The movement of people from one geographic area to anotherImmigration: People moving into a geographic areaEmigration: People moving out of a geographic areaNet migration rate: The rate of increase in a population due to net migrationLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.The last factor affecting population is migration— the movement of people from one geographic area to another. When people move into a geographic area, it is called immigration. When they move out of a geographic area, it is called emigration. Since both of these occur at the same time, demographers usually focus on the net migration—the difference between immigration and emigration. Migration rates, like birth and death rates, are usually expressed as some number per thousand people in a population.Voluntary immigration is influenced by push factors that encourage people to leave an area and pull factors that encourage people to move to an area. Push and pull factors generally lead to immigration becoming strong sources of population growth for affluent countries, while the population of poor countries tends to increase almost exclusively from natural growth (births and deaths within the country) and is diminished as people emigrate to more desirable countries. For most of its 220-plus years, migration has played a large role in population growth in the United States. Immigration varied dramatically between 1820 and 2011 but generally increased between 1820 and 1907, peaking in 1907 at 1.28 million. Then it dropped over the next 38 years until the end of World War II, taking a huge drop in World War I and again beginning in the 1930s during the Great Depression. Since World War II, immigration has generally increased, exceeding one million every year since In 2011, immigrants made up 13.0% of the US population, the largest percentage since 1920.
12Migration (slide 2 of 2)Internal migration: Migration from one place to another within a larger geographic areaLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Explain how demographers use the balancing equation to predict population change from births, deaths, and net migration.The country of origin of US immigrants changed dramatically between 1820 to Throughout the 19th century, 80 to 90% of immigration to the United States was from Europe. This plummeted over the 20th century, dropping to around 10% by 2000, while immigration increased dramatically among Hispanics from the Americas, approaching 50% by Then from 1960 to today, immigration from Asia rose from less than 10% to nearly 40% by The United States has also experienced a great deal of internal migration— migration from one place to another within a larger geographic area. The largest internal migration trends since the latter part of the 20th century have been migration from the Northeast and North Central regions to the South and West. The map in Figure 16-7 displays the net migration for each US county between 2000 and Much of the in-migration in this figure is to urban counties. Much of the out-migration is from rural areas, the northern Midwest, and some areas in the Old South.
13Population StructurePopulation pyramid: A graph displaying the age and sex distribution for a populationAge cohort: A subpopulation of people all born within a narrow age rangeLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.1 Sociological Study of Population: DemographyLO: Discuss the use of population pyramids to examine population structures.The structure of a population refers to its distribution of people based on age, sex, and other characteristics. The most common way to examine and describe a population structure is a population pyramid— a graph displaying the age and sex distribution for a population. In Figure 16-8 are two population pyramids. Each population pyramid displays successive age cohorts— subpopulations of people all born within a narrow age range—with the youngest age cohort on the bottom and the oldest on the top, and with males on the left and females on the right. The width of the population pyramid at its base is a direct result of the birthrate of a population. The rate at which each successive cohort decreases in size reflects any changes in birth rates between age cohorts, along with the effects of death rates and net migration. The structure of a population tells us a lot about the public social issues facing a population and the need for various goods and services. Figure 16-8 shows two population pyramids, one for the United States and one for Nigeria. Nigeria has a high crude birth rate of 39 per thousand, leading to a large proportion of the population in the younger age cohorts and higher crude death rate of 13 per thousand with virtually no net migration, leading to a sharp drop-off in population among the older age cohorts. As a result, Nigeria and countries like it have many children to support and a relatively small 3% of its population 65 and older. In contrast, the United States population pyramid looks much like those of many relatively affluent industrialized countries. A lower crude birth rate of 14 per thousand reduces the width of the younger age cohorts, and the lower crude death rate of 8 per thousand and a net migration rate of 4 per thousand permits a longer life expectancy of 78, producing a modest drop in size as cohorts become older. (The bulge between ages 40 and 60 is the result of the baby boom). As a result of these dynamics, the US population is growing at a manageable rate.
14Malthusian Perspective Malthus argued that population increases exponentially while food supply increases linearly, creating starvation and disorder.Learn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.2 Theories and Perspectives on Population GrowthLO: Compare and contrast theories and perspective of population growth.Thomas Malthus (1766–1834), an English clergyman, was the first to argue the world was becoming overpopulated. Malthus recognized that the number of births is directly proportional to the number of women of childbearing age in a population. So the more potential mothers available, the more births result, and population increases exponentially rather than linearly. Malthus argued that population was growing exponentially, doubling every few years, while the food supply was increasing at a linear rate. The problem is exponential growth keeps growing faster and faster. At some point, the accelerated population growth was bound to overtake the food supply, leading to catastrophic starvation and disorder (Figure 16-9). Malthus argued that population should be controlled through postponing marriage but rejected artificial measures of birth control because they were not sanctioned by the church.There is some support for the argument put forth by Malthus. World population growth for the past few hundred years has increased exponentially (Figure 16-10). The great majority of growth in world population has been and continues to be in developing countries. Fortunately, things are not as simple as Malthus made them out to be. The food supply has grown much faster than he expected thanks to modern agricultural technologies. Rates of population growth have diminished in some parts of the world to the point where some countries are actually losing population or in fear of doing so. However, population growth continues to challenge many developing countries even today.
15Marxist PerspectiveMarx argued that there were sufficient resources to sustain the world population but that those resources were distributed inequitably.Learn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.2 Theories and Perspectives on Population GrowthLO: Compare and contrast theories and perspective of population growth.Karl Marx (1867) objected to Malthus’s argument that blames overpopulation for human misery. In particular, Marx objected to characterizing human suffering as a “law of nature” when Marx believed suffering was more clearly the consequence of capitalism and the social inequality that it encourages. Contrary to Malthus, Marx argued, there were sufficient resources to sustain the world population of that time (approximately 1 billion people) if those resources were just distributed more equitably. Capitalism and the great inequalities it created were the problem, argued Marx, not overpopulation.However, while Marx made a good case arguing that inequality leads to great human suffering, New Malthusians (the intellectual heirs of the Malthusian argument) remind us that Marx did not offer a solution to rapid population growth. In 2012, according to the Population Reference Bureau, there were an estimated 267 births every minute globally, more than 385,000 people day, and more than 140 million new births annually. At its present rate of growth, the global population will double every 35 years.
16Demographic Transition Theory (slide 1 of 2) Demographic transition: The shift that occurs when countries change from high birthrates and death rates to low birthrates and death ratesLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.2 Theories and Perspectives on Population GrowthLO: Compare and contrast theories and perspective of population growth.When Malthus was writing his pessimistic predictions regarding population growth, Europe and England were in the midst of a period of rapid population growth. Today, most Western industrialized countries in Europe and North America are no longer experiencing such rapid population growth. Instead, they are experiencing manageable, modest growth, no growth, and in some cases even a decline in population. The demographic transition occurs when countries change from high birthrates and death rates to low birthrates and death rates. The demographic transition has three phases, as shown in Figure 16-11:(I) High birth rates and death rates, with little population growth(II) Declining death rates due largely to reductions in infant mortality, with little or no reduction in birth rates, resulting in high population growth(III) Low birth rates and death rates, with little population growthThe demographic transition describes the history of industrialized nations, but it is not a “law” that must necessarily describe population transitions in other countries now or in the future. In fact, this transition has been made more difficult for developing nations today because their death rates often plummet rapidly due to technology transfers from industrialized countries, while reductions in birth rates require cultural changes in attitudes regarding the size of the family that require much more time. For countries that became industrialized early, reductions in death rates took much longer, giving those countries greater opportunity to reduce birth rates more gradually. Even when reaching Phase III, countries will continue to experience population growth for a time due to the large number of people of childbearing age.
17Demographic Transition Theory (slide 2 of 2) Zero population growth (ZPG): A state in which the population size is expected to change little or none over timeLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.2 Theories and Perspectives on Population GrowthLO: Compare and contrast theories and perspective of population growth.In 2012, the countries in both North America and Europe have clearly entered Phase III. Dozens of industrialized countries, most of them in Europe, have achieved zero population growth (ZPG), in which the population is expected to change little or none over time, or even population decline in which their population is now dropping. As long ago as 1972, the US fertility rate dropped below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.12, the fertility rate required to keep the population constant. In 2012, North America had an average rate of increase of 0.8%, including net immigration and a doubling time of 88 years, while Europe has gone even further with an average rate of increase of 0.2%, including net immigration. As a result, Europe is projected to lose population between now and Asia (growth rate of 1.1%), Latin America, and the Caribbean (growth rates of 1.2%) are each showing some decline in population growth, suggesting they are entering Phase III. Oceania continues to have a higher 1.5% growth rate with significant net immigration. African countries, on average, continue in Phase II with an average growth rate of 2.4%, meaning the population of Africa is doubling roughly every 29 years.A number of demographers argue that Phase III is now being followed in some countries by a Phase IV in which countries are experiencing modest population declines. Some even predict that the world population as a whole might shrink significantly over the long run. For example, fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level, resulting in population declines, in some of the most highly developed nations in the world, including South Korea, Japan, Germany, Spain, and Italy. Yet more recent data suggest that fertility rates are rising again in some highly developed countries. The suggestion is that, in moderate levels of development, birth rates decline because of the costs of raising children in developed societies, but when societies pass a threshold of development, more people have resources to afford children despite their economic drain on the household.
18Current Analysis of Population Growth Countries in phase II are experiencing rapid population growth.Countries in phase III face stable or declining populations.Learn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.2 Theories and Perspectives on Population GrowthLO: Compare and contrast theories and perspective of population growth.The demographic factors discussed here can produce important social changes in a society and require governments to develop policies regarding demographic issues. Sometimes population policies reflect ethnic conflict. Many countries have immigration policies that exclude certain groups from entering the country. We even have a term now, ethnic cleansing, which refers to the practice of killing people from some ethnic groups and encouraging the surviving members to emigrate to another country. Many countries, such as the People’s Republic of China, have population policies that are designed to reduce their rapid population growth. Ironically, some countries, including a number of Islamic countries, are encouraging larger families in an effort to increase their populations, presumably to increase their political and military strength in their regions.Internationally, the impact of population varies dramatically depending on the phase of the demographic transition a country is currently in. Countries in phase II are experiencing rapid population growth and fighting to maintain or improve the standard of living in the face of that tremendous burden. Countries already well into phase III, on the other hand, face stable or even declining populations and an aging population. Their economies need to shift away from goods and services aimed at the young and toward those aimed at the elderly. Rising health care costs become a significant social policy issue, as does maintaining the social security of the increasing number of elderly as the number of workers contributing to those programs declines.
19The Link Between Demography and Urbanization Urbanization: The large-scale movement of people from less populated areas to more populated areasLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Analyze the processes that shape the growth of cities.There is more to population than change and composition. Population cannot be fully understood without understanding its geographic distribution. For well over the past century, in both the United States and globally, the most consistent and most important trend in the geographic distribution of population has been urbanization— the large scale movement of people from less populated areas to more populated areas. We cannot understand the major trends in population without also examining urbanization, nor can we understand cities without considering their populations.In 2010, the Phoenix, Arizona, and Detroit, Michigan, metropolitan areas had nearly the same population. But they face huge differences, because one is growing rapidly while the other struggles. The Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Arizona, metropolitan area is one of the fastest-growing urban areas in recent years. The entire metro-area population increased steadily from 726,183 in 1960 to 3,251,876 in 2000 to 4,192,887 in During that same period, Hispanics in the population increased even more rapidly, from 14% in 1980 to 29.5% in In contrast, the Detroit, Michigan, metropolitan statistical area grew rapidly through the 1960s, increasing by 12%, then declined more than 2% each in the 1970s and 1980s, increasing by 4% in the 1990s, declining again by about 3%. The population in Detroit in 2000 was 23% black, 70% white, 3% Hispanic, and 2% Asian. Thus, these two cities face very different prospects. Detroit is fighting off population decline along with older infrastructure issues and aging housing stock as the tax base declines and jobs and affluent households have left. In contrast, Phoenix faces rapid growth requiring new construction, which stimulates more jobs and still more people moving to the city. Much of the new population in Phoenix is Hispanics and younger families, leading to a younger demographic mix and increasing ethnic diversity.
20A Brief History of Cities Cities were not possible until the advent of food surpluses.Learn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Analyze the processes that shape the growth of cities.Cities are a relatively new development. Cities are only 7,000 to 9,000 years old. People in cities cannot produce their own food. Hence, cities could not be sustained until farmers could produce a food surplus. Large, modern cities were not possible until the Industrial Revolution, which provided job opportunities in urban areas, more efficient production, and transportation, permitting more people to subsist with fewer farmers. Only 10% or less of the entire population could live in preindustrial cities, and the size of those cities was restricted by poor transportation, the limited ability to preserve perishable goods, and health problems related to sanitation. England was the first country to have more than half of its population living in cities; it passed the 50% mark well over 100 years ago. It was not until 1920 that more than half of the US population lived in cities. By 2010, that figure had reached 80.7% (Figure 16-15). In 2010, there were 486 urbanized areas with populations of 50,000 or more. Forty-two of them had one million or more people, and the largest, New York City, exceed 18 million in population. The entire world has become urbanized. In 2011, 52.1% of the entire world population lived in urban areas. Seventy-seven point seven percent of the population of more developed countries is urban, 46.5% of less developed regions, and 36.7% of sub– Saharan African nations. Each of those is becoming more urbanized, however, and by 2050, those numbers are predicted to increase to 67.2% for the world as a whole, 85.9% for more developed regions, 64.1% for less developed regions, and 56.5% for sub-Saharan Africa. There are more than 100 cities of more than three million around the world. The size of cities is also growing. In 2010, the three largest cities in the world were Tokyo with more than 32 million, Seoul, South Korea, with more than 20 million, and Mexico City, Mexico, with more than 20 million.
21Models of Urban GrowthHuman ecology: The study of people and their environmentThree well-known theories of urban growth are:Concentric zone theoryMultiple nuclei theorySector theoryLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Illustrate theories of urban growth.One of the most interesting aspects of cities is how they grow and change over time. It was at the University of Chicago that several sociologists developed an approach we now call human ecology —the study of people and their environment. That approach offers three competing theories of urban growth.Concentric zone theory. In this view, cities grow as a series of concentric circles radiating from the center, looking much like a dartboard or target. Ernest W. Burgess (1925) proposed the concentric zone theory to explain the tendency for cities to radiate outward from the central business district. In this theory, Zone 1 is the central business district and forms the center of the city. Zone 2 is a zone of transition containing deteriorating housing that, in a growing city, is being progressively replaced by businesses expanding out from Zone 1. Zone 3 contains inexpensive housing in which lower-income workers live and remain close to their work. Zone 4 includes more expensive apartments, single-family homes, and some exclusive housing for the more affluent. Zone 5 includes even more exclusive areas and expensive homes of the more affluent in commuter communities and suburbs or satellite cities.Sector theory. Homer Hoyt (1939) modified Burgess’s theory, arguing that cities do not grow in perfect circles, though that can be one element. Growth tends to occur along major transportation routes. Inner circles expand outward along transportation routes to form “wedges”—that is, neon strips along major streets or highways. As a result, cities will tend to be star shaped, growing farther and faster along major transportation routesMultiple nuclei theory. Chauncy Harris and Edward Ullman (1945) argue that cities do not necessarily follow any particular pattern of growth but may have several centers or nuclei which may be the focus of different specialized activities. A combination of push and pull factors influence this clustering. Incompatible activities such as manufacturing and residences or schools and red-light districts push one another apart. In contrast, many types of businesses seem to do better when around other similar businesses, encouraging the development of a retail district, a garment district, a manufacturing district, a financial district, etc. Nuclei are influenced by history, geography, and so on. Factors influencing each city are different, so different patterns of growth are expected.These theories each tend to focus on the macro level, highlighting overall patterns of growth in cities but telling us much less about the underlying micro-level processes that produce that growth.
22Ecological Succession (slide 1 of 3) Ecological succession: A new social group or type of land use first “invade” a territory and then becomes the dominant social group or dominant land use for that territoryInvasion: The intrusion of one group or activity into an area occupied by anotherSuccession: The replacement of activities or people by othersGated communities: Communities that build walls or other barriers around a neighborhood and erect gates on streets entering the neighborhood, restricting traffic to local residentsLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Describe general trends in urbanization.The growth and evolution of cities can be described as a process of ecological succession in which a new social group or type of land use first “invades” territory and then becomes the dominant social group or dominant land use for the territory. Thus, ecological succession involves first invasion and then succession. Invasion is the intrusion of one group or activity into an area occupied by another. Succession is the replacement of activities or people by others. In cities today, this invasion and succession rarely involves violence but still occurs with great regularity. In most cases today, ecological succession is driven by economic and social concerns as more affluent people drive up prices and force out the less affluent, as more lucrative commercial uses replace other uses of land, and as people sharing one or more social characteristics occupy a neighborhood, leading other groups of people to leave. Even without direct violence, this ecological succession can cause considerable social upheaval, anger, resentment, and protest. The work of sociologist William Julius Wilson provides an example of how public issues of cities can create private troubles for individuals. As urban areas deteriorate, affluent whites who are able to leave move to the suburbs in what has come to be called white flight— the large-scale migration of whites out of areas increasingly occupied by minorities. The exodus of whites and affluent people able to move leaves an inner city with fewer job opportunities and an increasingly higher concentration of the poor. Concentrated poverty refers to a tendency for people who are poor to be located in focused geographic areas where most of the residents are also poor. As an urban area becomes occupied almost exclusively by the poor, opportunities become even more scarce and community breaks down, trapping many blacks and poor people with few opportunities for improvement.Resistance to invasion of other populations or other uses of land is common. Such resistance can range from political battles to erecting physical walls or barriers to keep others out. Today, in large urban communities across the United States, in increasing numbers, affluent residential communities are becoming gated communities that erect walls or other barriers around a neighborhood and erect gates on streets entering the neighborhood, restricting traffic to local residents. While gated communities are ostensibly efforts to reduce crime for their residents, critics often argue that their primary consequence is to provide a way for rich people to separate themselves from the poor and to declare their superiority.
23Ecological Succession (slide 2 of 3) Urban DeclineUrban RenewalUrban decline: Ecological succession in an urban environment that results in increased crime, flight of affluent residents, or an exodus of businessesInfrastructure: The roads, bridges, subways, storm water and sewer systems, communications lines, power lines, and other physical structures necessary for the continued operation of industrialized societiesUrban renewal: Includes efforts to improve the urban environment intended to reduce crime, attract more affluent residents, or improve the tax base by attracting new business or industryLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Describe general trends in urbanization.Within ecological succession are three common forms—urban decline, urban renewal, and gentrification—along with a persistent consequence—residential segregation. Urban decline is ecological succession in an urban environment that results in increased crime, flight of affluent residents, or an exodus of businesses. As a result, social service needs increase and the tax base declines, creating a need for outside financial support. Another common form of urban decline occurs when there is a deteriorating infrastructure. By infrastructure, we mean the roads, bridges, subways, storm water and sewer systems, communications lines, power lines, and other physical structures necessary for the continued operation of industrialized societies. As cities age and grow, this basic infrastructure must be maintained and expanded to meet new needs. Unfortunately, many of the cities in the United States have been around for decades or even hundreds of years and have deteriorating infrastructures.Urban renewal includes efforts to improve the urban environment intended to reduce crime, attract more affluent residents, or improve the tax base by attracting new business or industry. Urban-renewal projects often involve massive amounts of public funds and major projects such as sports stadiums, convention centers, airports, or commercial projects such as office complexes to attract business. In this respect, they tend to be unlike gentrification, which typically does not require massive amounts of public funding. Ironically, urban renewal projects have contributed to the number of homeless found in American cities. Urban renewal projects often demolish some of the most decayed areas of a city and often result in a loss of skid rows— old, decaying housing where many of the poor and unemployed once found homes.
24Ecological Succession (slide 1 of 2) GentrificationResidential SegregationGentrification: The resettlement of a low-income inner-city neighborhood by affluent residents and businesses, often forcing out the low-income residents who once lived thereResidential segregation: The separation of categories of people into different geographic areas of residenceLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Describe general trends in urbanization.Gentrification is the resettlement of a low-income, inner-city neighborhood by affluent residents and businesses, often forcing out the low-income residents who once lived there. Gentrification and other forms of urban renewal take place when inner cities lose sufficient population and experience enough deterioration to cause a drastic drop in property values. Once property values are low enough, they offer an opportunity for developers to invest large amounts of money and transform the neighborhood. This reinvestment tends to occur because the location in the inner city makes the land valuable for new uses due to its proximity to other parts of cities. Resentment of the displacement gentrification causes is compounded when—as is often the case—one ethnic group is displaced by another.A recurring outcome of ecological succession is residential segregation—the separation of categories of people into different geographic areas of residence. A form of residential segregation that has been a part of the United States since well before the Civil War is racial segregation— the geographic separation of people based on race or ethnicity. Black–white segregation peaked around 1960 or 1970, and since then, there has been a continued steady but slow reduction. Hispanics and Asians are less segregated than African Americans but still tend to live in ethnic enclaves. Since both Hispanic and Asian populations are growing rapidly, those enclaves are actually becoming more homogeneous, making them further isolated from other racial and ethnic groups. Figure displays the racial and ethnic distributions of neighborhoods in which different groups typically live. Note that in each case, people tend to live in neighborhoods with other people more like themselves than the population in general. For example, whites typically live in neighborhoods that are 75% white, blacks in neighborhoods that are 45% black, Hispanics in neighborhoods that are 46% Hispanic, and Asians in neighborhoods that are 22% Asian.
25Decentralization: Suburbs, Exurbs, and Edge Cities Metropolitan statistical area: A densely populated area consisting of a county containing a core urban area (specifically, a city with a population of 50,000 or more) as well as adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integrationMicropolitan statistical area: Centers of population with smaller population cores with populations of 10,000 or more but less than 50,000Megalopolis: A densely populated area containing two or more metropolitan areas that have grown until they overlap one anotherLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Describe general trends in urbanization.In order to compute statistics describing cities, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) distinguishes two core-based statistical areas (CBSAs). A metropolitan statistical area is a densely populated area consisting of a county containing a core urban area (specifically, a city with a population of 50,000 or more) as well as adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration. A micropolitan statistical area identifies centers of population with smaller population cores with populations of 10,000 or more but less than 50,000. Currently, more than 80% of the US population lives in metropolitan statistical areas and roughly 1 in 10 live in micropolitan areas. Some of these metropolitan areas have grown together over the years. A megalopolis is a densely populated area containing two or more metropolitan areas that have grown until they overlap one another (the rural areas between them have themselves become urban).
26Central Cities and Suburbs The SuburbsCentral cities: The original cities in metropolitan areas, often surrounded by suburbsSuburb: Any territory in a metropolitan area not included in the central cityLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Describe general trends in urbanization.Central cities are the original cities in metropolitan areas, often surrounded by suburbs. Often, central cities contain older facilities and many have a deteriorating infrastructure. They often contain many varieties of urban dwellers, including less affluent, working class, poor, and minorities who may not be able to move from the central city to the suburbs. Many central cities face a dilemma as their tax bases erode due to the exodus of many affluent residents and industries, while those left behind are often people most in need of social services.A suburb is any territory in a metropolitan area not included in the central city. Compared to inner cities, suburbs are often cleaner and less crowded, have newer infrastructure, are more homogeneous in the lifecycle-stage of families, and have less crime (Figure ) Suburbs do have some problems. These include high rates of juvenile delinquency and little for adolescents to do, obsolete structures from poor planning, and inadequate resources for the elderly and other more needy groups. For more than 100 years, as transportation improved, and particularly after the development of the automobile, people have been moving to towns near cities in which they work. Suburbs grew more slowly during the Depression and World War II when gasoline was rationed, making transportation more expensive and difficult. Suburbs began to grow much more rapidly during the 1950s and later, as the automobile replaced trains and trolley cars, making further expansion easier. Suburbanization also increased rapidly after the civil rights movement of the 1960s. Families are not the only ones moving to the suburbs. Industries and commerce are moving to the suburbs as well. As a result of the exodus of people and industries to the suburbs, many inner cities are experiencing declining populations and declining tax bases. Yet those same cities often face an increased burden in crime prevention and social services as more needy and less wealthy residents stay or move in. Suburbanites often resist efforts by city governments to join together to address regional problems by sharing revenues or control with the central city. This typically leaves the central city to address these problems on its own. The net result is a “doughnut structure,” with a decaying inner city having an older infrastructure at the core, surrounded by more affluent and rapidly growing suburbs.
27Exurbs and Edge Cities The Exurbs Edge Cities Exurbs: The area beyond the old suburbs, forming a second ring farther out from the central cityEdge cities: Less compact than older cities, have no clear center, and tend to grow up near major transportation routesLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.3 Urbanization: The Growth of CitiesLO: Describe general trends in urbanization.Exurbs are the area beyond the old suburbs, forming a second ring farther out from the central city. Exurbs have been the fastest-growing areas during the past 20 years. They differ from suburbs and the inner city in many respects. Development is much less dense. Exurbs often have their own economic base in shopping malls rather than being dependent upon the central city. Residents of exurbs may be anti-city and are mostly highly educated, wealthy, white professionals. Common reasons people move to exurbs include retirement, a nearby job, friends or family in the area, and wanting to get out of the city.One form exurbs are taking has been called edge cities. These are less compact than older cities and have no clear center. They tend to grow up near major transportation routes such as freeways and around intersections of major routes. Their growth is facilitated by new technology, permitting easier communication and transportation over long distances. They rival older central cities in size, investment, population, construction, and stores; but they lack some of the community life and institutions characteristic of older cities.
28Ferdinand Tönnies: Gemeinschaft and Gesellschaft Community: A collection of people who share a common geographic territory, most of the daily interactions of members take place within the territory, and members have a sense of belongingGemeinschaft: Describes the relationships among people in small, close-knit rural communities where social cohesion is achieved by strong personal bonds uniting members based on primary relationships, shared life experiences, and a shared cultureGesellschaft: Describes the relationships found in large and impersonal communities where many members do not know one another personally and cohesion is based on a complex division of labor and secondary relationships, where individuals have little identification with the group and little commitment to shared valuesLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.4 Urbanization and City LifeLO: Discuss sociological theories of the role of community.Several different sociologists have attempted to understand just what is meant by a sense of community in rural and urban areas, small towns and large cities, beginning as far back as the 19th century. Community is a collection of people who share a common geographic territory, most of the daily interactions of members take place within the territory, and members have a sense of belonging.Well over a century ago, German sociologist Ferdinand Tönnies (1887) described urbanization as moving away from strong long-term personal bonds and a shared culture to more impersonal, short-lived interactions based on individual interests. Gemeinschaft describes the relationships among people in small, close-knit rural communities where social cohesion is achieved by strong personal bonds uniting members based on primary relationships, shared life experiences, and a shared culture. Thus, gemeinschaft is experienced by people living in a small town where they grew up and where they have known most people for years and are similar to most other people, having similar values and aspirations. A primary relationship is a relationship involving multiple roles for each participant that is often emotional, personal, and not easily transferred to other people. It is often valued for its own sake, endures over time, and involves many aspects of a person’s life. Gesellschaft describes the relationships found in large and impersonal communities where many members do not know one another personally and cohesion is based on a complex division of labor and secondary relationships, where individuals have little identification with the group and little commitment to shared values. Gesellschaft relationships are typical of large urban communities. For example, residents of a new suburb, most of whom only recently moved there, who hold a wide range of different jobs in a nearby city, and who rarely see one another or share experiences in common are probably experiencing gesellschaft. A secondary relationship is a relationship that is specialized, lacks emotional intensity, often ends once specific goals are achieved, and can be reestablished with other participants with relative ease (as distinguished from a primary relationship).
29Emile Durkheim: Mechanical and Organic Solidarity Mechanical solidarity: People are held together by shared moral sentiments and traditionDivision of labor: The allocation of different roles to different social statusesOrganic solidarity: People are mutually dependent on one another due to a complex division of labor, and most relationships are neither intimate nor personalLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.4 Urbanization and City LifeLO: Discuss sociological theories of the role of community.French sociologist Emile Durkheim (1893) took a view similar in many respects to that of Tönnies. Durkheim believed that traditional rural and small-town life was based on mechanical solidarity in which people are held together by shared moral sentiments and tradition. In contrast, larger urban communities were more diverse and could not rely on shared moral sentiment to provide solidarity. However, urban life was also characterized by increasing division of labor— the allocation of different roles to different social statuses. This created a new form of social solidarity based on interdependence. In organic solidarity, people are mutually dependent on one another due to a complex division of labor, and most relationships are neither intimate nor personal. Thus, in urban communities, people depend on skilled specialists to perform needed. These two concepts are similar to the gemeinschaft and gesellschaft concepts of Tönnies. However, Durkheim is more optimistic about these changes. Where Tönnies bemoaned the loss of primary relationships as a result of the Industrial Revolution and urbanization, Durkheim saw the replacement of mechanical solidarity with a new social order forged by organic solidarity leading to greater moral tolerance, independence, and privacy.
30Georg Simmel: The Blasé Urbanite Urban overload: People are exposed to more stimuli than they can respond to each dayNorm of noninvolvement: Expectation that people will not become involved in the affairs of others to help preserve their privacy; typical of urban settingsStudied nonobservance: Polite behavior in which someone strives to appear not to notice someone else, often employed in an attempt to help the other person save faceLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.4 Urbanization and City LifeLO: Discuss sociological theories of the role of community.Urban dwellers often experience what is sometimes called urban overload, in which they are exposed to more stimuli than they can respond to each day. To protect themselves from unwanted intrusions, they often develop a blasé attitude and a detachment from others, making them sometimes appear cold and heartless. They often follow a norm of noninvolvement— the expectation that people will not become involved in the affairs of others to help preserve their privacy, typical of urban settings. They use various means to convey the message they do not want to be disturbed. Sociologist Erving Goffman describes such efforts as studied nonobservance— polite behavior in which someone strives to appear not to notice someone else, often employed in an attempt to help the other person save face. Thankfully, studied nonobservance often breaks down when people really need help.
31Louis Wirth: Anonymity and Self-Interest Wirth argues that cities undermine kinship and a sense of neighborhood, which are the bases of social control. This results in:AnonymityInteracting out of self-interestIndifferenceHeterogeneityAlienation/lonelinessLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.4 Urbanization and City LifeLO: Discuss sociological theories of the role of community.Louis Wirth (1938) argued that cities undermine kinship and a sense of neighborhood, which are the traditional bases of social control. Urban dwellers live in relative anonymity, with only transitory interactions with others rather than lasting intimate relationships. Often, their only relationship with someone else is as someone who performs a particular task, such as bus driver or landlord, and in that relationship, each person pursues his or her own self-interest. As a result, people become indifferent to one another. Where rural communities are quite willing to impose rigid norms for behavior, in urban areas, people are more heterogeneous, usually know much less about one another, and rarely have shared norms of moral conduct. But urban dwellers pay a price for this self-interested autonomy in alienation and loneliness.
32Robert Park: Urban Villages Urban villages: Areas of a city that people know well and in which they live, play, shop, and workLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.4 Urbanization and City LifeLO: Discuss sociological theories of the role of community.Sociologist Robert Park argued that cities are, in many respects, collections of small communities nestled up against one another. Many sociologists call these small communities “urban villages.” Urban villages are areas of a city that people know well and in which they live, play, shop, and work. Urban people create a sense of intimacy for themselves by personalizing their interactions. They regularly shop in the same stores and get to know the shopkeepers. They meet friends and become acquainted with people in neighborhood taverns, restaurants, and Laundromats. Those places become meeting places in which people build social relationships. Even areas that appear to be slums to outsiders can achieve this sense of community as people see one another often, become familiar with each other, and develop lasting relationships.
33Herbert Gans: Diversity of Urban Dwellers Cosmopolites: Well-educated, high-income people who choose to live in the city to take advantage of its convenience and cultural resourcesSingles: One of the types of urban dwellers; young, unmarried people who live in the city by choice for its convenience and to meet people, seek jobs, and enjoy entertainmentEthnic villagers: People living in tight-knit inner-city neighborhoods united by race and social class and resembling small townsThe deprived: Include the very poor, emotionally disturbed, handicapped individuals living at the bottom of societyThe trapped: People who cannot afford to leave the city who may identify with their neighborhood but dislike the city and what is has becomeLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.4 Urbanization and City LifeLO: Discuss sociological theories of the role of community.In what has become a classic work, sociologist Herbert Gans (1962, 1968, 1970) identified five types of urban dwellers: cosmopolites, singles, ethnic villagers, the deprived, and the trapped.Cosmopolites are well-educated, high-income people who choose to live in the city to take advantage of its convenience and cultural resources such as museums, theaters, and symphony orchestras. Cosmopolites enjoy many of the benefits of cities by virtue of their wealth and, likewise, are protected from many of its drawbacks by that same wealth.Singles are young, unmarried people who live in the city by choice for its convenience and to meet people, seek jobs, and enjoy entertainment. They stay in the city during this stage of their life cycle but may not develop strong attachments and are likely to move to the suburbs after they marry.Ethnic villagers are people living in tight-knit inner-city neighborhoods united by race and social class and resembling small towns. Ethnic villagers often develop intimate, enduring relationships within the neighborhood and often try to isolate themselves from the harmful aspects of city life and participate little in activities of the city as a whole.Where these first three types of urban residents live in the city by choice, the last two types often have no choice.The deprived include the very poor, emotionally disturbed, handicapped individuals living at the bottom of society. Their poverty gives them little or no choice where they live, and they have few prospects for a good future.The trapped are people who cannot afford to leave the city who may identify with their neighborhood but dislike the city and what it has become. Trapped people include: (a) those who cannot afford to move after their neighborhood is invaded by another ethnic group, (b) elderly people on a downward slide who drifted into the city because they cannot afford to live elsewhere, (c) alcoholics and drug addicts, and (d) downwardly mobile people. Like the deprived, the trapped are often victims of street crime. There is often a racial element to this, too, as poor blacks are disproportionately the ones who are often trapped in the inner city, unable to move to the suburbs where many jobs have moved.
34Communities without Walls Technology is transforming our notion of community as a geographic location.Learn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.5 The Future: Population, Cities, and the EnvironmentLO: Examine the role of new technology in population distribution.One of the interesting dilemmas we face early in the 21st century is the notion of community as a geographic location in which most of our daily interactions take place. Frankly, for most residents of industrialized societies, this just does not describe reality. People today commonly interact on a daily basis with friends and collaborate with colleagues hundreds or thousands of miles away. Mail-order business accounts for a larger proportion of economic activity each year. We can conduct business over the Internet. People belong to list serves oflike-minded individuals throughout the world who share their interests in a particular hobby, profession, or element of popular culture. Community in the sense of a single geographic location where we do most everything of interest and meaning in our lives simply no longer exists. Instead, we have overlapping communities that are not restricted by geographic space. Each day, our reliance upon the community in which we are geographically located becomes incrementally less than it was the day before, as new opportunities become available for us to interact in communities without walls in cyberspace. If these trends continue, we should expect continued dramatic growth of such communities without walls and a progressive reduction in the central role of geographic community.
35Rural LifeRural areas: Communities having fewer than 2,500 residents along with areas in open country outside of any cityLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.5 The Future: Population, Cities, and the EnvironmentLO: Discuss how social life is changing in rural areas.In the United States, we often have idealized images of rural life. However, as long ago as 1920, more of the US population lived in cities than in rural areas. The agricultural basis for the rural economy disappeared as family farms were replaced with commercial agricultural enterprises. New technologies permit people to interact, conduct business, and work over long distances, making it more feasible to live in rural America while participating in the urban economy. The communities without walls are part of this trend. However, at this point, those new economic opportunities for rural residents are still not keeping pace with the loss of population and loss of jobs that have dominated rural life over the last 50 years or more.In the United States, for statistical purposes, rural areas are defined by the Census Bureau as communities having fewer than 2,500 residents along with areas in open country outside of any city. Rural areas have 19.3% of the US population and 75% of the land mass. This is down immensely from the 60% of the population that lived in rural areas in The exodus of people and economic opportunities from rural areas has had a profound impact on rural life. In Figure are displayed urbanized areas and urban clusters in The white area comprising most of the map represents rural areas that are not urbanized.
36Aging in PlaceAging in place: Pattern typical of many rural areas where the young adults leave for jobs and educational opportunities in more urban areas, leaving a region with more older adultsLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.5 The Future: Population, Cities, and the EnvironmentLO: Discuss how social life is changing in rural areas.Figure is a population pyramid for Shelby County, Missouri, a rural county. This graph is top heavy with large numbers of people 35 years old and older, while people between 20 and 34 are much less numerous. This pattern is the aging-in-place pattern typical of many rural areas, where the young adults leave for job and educational opportunities in more urban areas. Eventually, the lack of younger adults also leads to a lack of young children and further erosion of jobs and economic opportunities, while the average age of the population continues to increase. This particular county declined in population by 25% between 1960 and Not all rural areas display this same pattern, however. Throughout the rural Midwest, many rural areas have packing plants or other manufacturing facilities that have attracted Hispanic immigrants. Counties nearer metropolitan areas often turn into bedroom communities, with residents driving 50 or more miles to work in nearby cities while still living in their long-term homes. But the pattern displayed in Shelby County is relatively common.The deep divide between life in rural areas and life in urban cities is also reflected in political voting patterns. As Josh Kron (2012) points out, the political divide in the United States is no longer regional differences such as a Republican South and a Democratic Northeast and West Coast. Instead, it is a rural–urban divide, with only four major cities voting Republican in the 2012 presidential election. Even in one of the reddest states, every one of Texas’s major cities voted Democratic. Kron goes on to argue that “the voting data suggest that people do not make cities liberal—cities make people liberal.”
37Ecological Limits to Population and Urbanization (slide 1 of 2) Sustainable development: Constrained economic growth that recycles instead of depletes natural resources while protecting air, water, land, and biodiversityLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.5 The Future: Population, Cities, and the EnvironmentLO: Analyze how population increases and increased consumption affect the environment.Rapid population growth places incredible strain on the economies of developing countries, forcing them to devote scarce economic resources just to feed, shelter, and clothe people. In more affluent, industrialized countries, population growth is slower and hence more manageable, and their stronger economies can handle the growth well. However, even in these countries, increasing population leads to another danger—the risk of an ecological disaster. These countries may be able to afford the economic resources to sustain the increased populations, but they are not capable of sustaining the increasing drain on nonrenewable natural resources such as oil, gas, fresh water, and clean air. The book, The Limits to Growth, by Meadows and colleagues (1972a), argued that there are natural limits to growth that can be sustained by our planet. The authors chart changes since 1900 and then use their computer model to predict how those same variables will continue to change through the 21st century (Figure 16-21). Those authors believe that increasing population size willlead to declining supplies of natural resources that will eventually lead to declines in food production and industrial production along with deterioration of the ecosystem due to pollution. An updated version in 2004 and a separate analysis by Graham Turner compared the predictions in The Limits to Growth with changes in the ensuing 30 years and concluded that the ensuing changes in food production and industrial production and the resulting pollution were generally consistent with predictions from the book.Stopping or slowing development is unlikely to be politically feasible in most countries, and development brings with it advantages as well. So international bodies, beginning with a United Nations report in 1987, Our Common Future, have called for sustainable development— constrained economic growth that recycles instead of depletes natural resources while protecting clean air, water, land, and biodiversity. This approaches encourages moderating consumption in high-consumption countries and less extreme inequalities in consumption globally. Critics of this approach worry that it goes too far to promote an agenda of globalization and distribution of wealth from the developed world to the underdeveloped world.
38Ecological Limits to Population and Urbanization (slide 2 of 2) 20% of the world’s people account for 86% of all total private consumption expenditures globally.Human Development Index (HDI): A simple composite measure including health, schooling, and incomeLearn SociologyChapter 16: Population and Urbanization16.5 The Future: Population, Cities, and the EnvironmentLO: Analyze how population increases and increased consumption affect the environment.High-income countries and low-income countries contribute to the ecological problems caused by rising populations in distinctly different ways. True, low-income countries are still in Phase II of the demographic transition and are experiencing rapid population growth. However, the amount of resources consumed (and often the amount of pollution that results) for each person in low-income countries is far less than the amount consumed for individuals in high-income countries. A study by the United Nations Development Program in 1998 found dramatic inequalities in consumption between the richest and poorest countries as seen in Figure Overall, the 20% of the world’s people in the highest-income countries accounted for 86% of all total private consumption expenditures globally, 87% of all cars, 84% of all paper, 74% of all telephone connections, 58% of total energy, and 45% of all meat and fish. Runaway growth in consumption among the most affluent countries continues to threaten the global environment. Dramatic inequalities persist. To compare nations, the United Nations uses a summary measure of development, the Human Development Index (HDI)— a simple composite measure including health, schooling, and income. Domestic per-capita water consumption averages only 67 liters a day in low–HDI countries, compared to 425 liters a day in very high–HDI countries. Efforts to create sustainable growth in very high–HDI countries have been unable to keep up with economic growth. While those countries have reduced the carbon intensity of production by 52%, consumption continues to increase due to economic growth, with total emissions and emissions per capita more than doubling to 112% higher now than 40 years ago. Global temperatures have risen an average of 0.75oC since 1900, and the rate of increase is accelerating. One serious side effect of global warming is rising sea levels, which have already risen 20 centimeters since 1870 and are projected to be 31 centimeters higher in 2100 than in By one estimate, a half-meter rise in sea level by 2050 would flood an area the size of France and Italy combined, affecting170 million people.