3 Global recovery expected in 2004 GDP and inflation forecasts of the Deutsche Bank No inflation pressures in 2003.
Section 2 Determinants of Poland’s economic performance
5 Real interest rates in Poland declined but are still high... Real interest rates in Poland, Germany and USA High interest rate differential is the main determinant of the macro- economic situation of Poland (besides relatively lax fiscal policy)
6 Interest rate differential does not impact the USD/PLN much PLN
7 Interest rate differential has some impact on the EUR/PLN PLN
8 PLN to firm on structural factors, reduced uncertainty, successful EU referendum, and interest rate differential PLN
9 East European currencies tend to appreciate in long-term due to productivity gains (Samuelson- Balassa effect)
10 PLN will be additionally firmed by transfers from the EU in the 2004-2006. Industrial production and GDP