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Sistemas de Gobernanza y Vulnerabilidad Urbana en Ciudades Latinoamericanas Congreso Mexicano de Investigación en Cambio climático Patricia Romero-Lankao.

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Presentation on theme: "Sistemas de Gobernanza y Vulnerabilidad Urbana en Ciudades Latinoamericanas Congreso Mexicano de Investigación en Cambio climático Patricia Romero-Lankao."— Presentation transcript:

1 Sistemas de Gobernanza y Vulnerabilidad Urbana en Ciudades Latinoamericanas Congreso Mexicano de Investigación en Cambio climático Patricia Romero-Lankao Resilient and Sustainable Cities NCAR México, Octubre 2011

2 Outline  Mitigation & adaptation:  Entry points  Challenges I.Research highlights from Resilient & Sustainable Cities I.Processes of urban change II.Socioeconomic drivers & mitigation III.Determinants of vulnerability & adaptation Valle Dorado y Chalco Sep. 2009 y 2010

3 Research highlights Resilient and Sustainable Cities I.Processes of urban change II.Socioeconomic drivers & mitigation III.Determinants of vulnerability & adaptation Valle Dorado y Chalco Sep. 2009 y 2010

4 I. Processes of Urban Change: Carbon and climate relevance 1.Scale A five-fold increase of urban populations (1950- 2011) In 2003, 3 billion urban dwellers; by 2030, 5 billion 2.Rate In 1950 there were 75 cities 1-5 million people; in 2011, 447; By 2020, 527 3.Location Asia/Pacific and Africa Small and medium cities (733 versus 15 large cities in 2000) Challenges and opportunities Romero-Lankao and Gnatz: 2011 Urban population projections, by region (2010–2020)

5 Research highlights Resilient and Sustainable Cities I.Processes of urban change II.Socioeconomic drivers & mitigation III.Determinants of vulnerability & adaptation Valle Dorado y Chalco Sep. 2009 y 2010

6 The wealthiest/largest cities don't necessarily have the largest carbon footprints. Why? Source: Romero Lankao (2008) 15.2 M. of people 18. M. of people

7 The wealthiest/largest cities don't necessarily have the largest carbon footprints. Why?

8 II. Multiple factors shape urban GHG emissions Poly-centric Mono- centric  Economic base and GDP per capita  Spatial structure (form) and population size/density ( 1% increase in urban density results in a 1.25% decrease in emissions)  Energy use intensity  Transportation mode share 1% increase in public transport results in a 0.15% decrease in emissions!  City’s latitude & energy endowments  Currently drafting a paper from a more ambitious effort: 225 cities  Multidisciplinary project  Database covering 84 cities  STIRPAT formula (instead of multiplicative IPAT)  Estimates elasticity of each driver  Tests four theories Sources: Romero Lankao, Tribbia and Nychka (2009); Bertaud (2009)

9 Climate Responses at the City Level Transport (56.8%) Waste (24.6%) Water (14.9%) Mitigation (94.3%) Basin mgmt. (45.2%) Agriculture (30.5%) Monitoring (18.2%) Adaptation (5.1%) Water culture Awareness raising Integrated waste mgmt. Outreach (0.6%) Example Climate Action Plan of DF (Budget 59,551.00 Millions of Mexican Pesos) Many cities are already responding  Focus on mitigation  Climate related to local priorities (e.g., energy, air pollution)  A piecemeal approach  Inventory protocols (e.g., ICLEI)  limited information about  Individual and collective impact  Specially when responses go beyond  municipal buildings and infrastructure systems or  involve behavioural change Source: Romero-Lankao 2011 Journal of Urban European Planning (accepted)

10 Mitigation: four modes of governing at the urban level The most common Too much attention on the government itself may detract resources from the key emitters and broader mitigation challenges Self-regulation Enabling Provision of infrastructure and services holds a high potential where municipal governments owns or control infrastructure networks and where basic needs have been met Provision Because of their targeted and enforceable nature, they can be very effective Yet these are also the least popular and therefore the most difficult to sustain politically Regulation Source: Romero-Lankao 2011 Journal of Urban European Planning (accepted) Relatively low upfront economic and political costs; transparency and legitimacy of urban governance Restricted to those who are willing to participate, and cannot be enforced.

11 Research highlights Resilient and Sustainable Cities I.Processes of urban change II.Socioeconomic drivers & mitigation III.Determinants of vulnerability & adaptation Valle Dorado y Chalco Sep. 2009 y 2010

12 Source: A. de Sherbinin and Romero Lankao (2011). The hazard risk of each city represents a cumulative score based on risk of cyclones, flooding, landslides and drought

13 Adaptation responses and urban vulnerability Individuals, CBOs and authorities are responding Yet, too few cities have developed coherent adaptation strategies, This is the result of –International structure of incentives (focus on mitigation, e.g., CDM) –local hindering factors: policy and governance frameworks; socio- environmental and cultural inertia –Lack of detailed risk assessments –Lack of understanding of how adaptation can be integrated into disaster risk reduction and development agenda (land use planning, water access, sanitation and housing) Bogota and Mexico City Source: Romero-Lankao 2011 Journal of Urban European Planning (accepted)

14 Mega-basin of Mexico City: Long term changes to climate-hydrological conditions Climate relevant to local hydrology Alternation of wet years/floods with drought episodes Water system induced Profound transformation of basins’ hydrological cycle High levels of energy consumption and GHG Negative impacts on livelihoods in basins providing and receiving water Electricity used to pump water from Cutzamala equivalent to the energy consumed by city of Puebla (5 mill) Romero Lankao 2010; Romero Lankao and Günther (2011 accepted)

15 Long term: State-centered system of water management and use Top-down decision making Fragmented institutional structures and participation Paradox: abundant water, yet “2 nd order scarcity” Unequal access to/payment for services Negative health implications of pollution & poor quality water sanitation Subsidence Propensity to flood Subsidence Water for the wealthy; Water for the poor Hydro-meteorological Events Resulting in Disasters (1980-2006) Romero Lankao 2010; Romero Lankao and Günther (2011 accepted)

16 Precipitation and social vulnerability rain intensity (20+ mm/½ hr event), 1979-2003 Graizbord 2010

17 ADAPTE: segunda etapa El cuestionario contempló 66 preguntas organizadas en siete secciones: I datos demográficos; II datos del hogar; III educación; IV entorno del hogar, activos y bienes; V experiencia con riesgos ambientales y sociales; VI recursos y opciones de adaptación a riesgos ambientales y climáticos; VII estrategias para enfrentar amenazas, sección

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19 Vulnerabilidad urbana: desde las ciudades Fuente: ADAPTE 2011 Eventos ambientales más importantes en las cuatro ciudades

20 Vulnerabilidad urbana: una mirada local (Xochimilco) Eventos ambientales más importantes Pérdida, daños, enfermedad, etc., resultantes de Fuente: ADAPTE 2011 Desastres en la ciudad (1980-2006) Fuente: Romero Lankao (2010) con informacion de La Red

21 ¿Para cuál de los siguientes eventos cuenta su barrio con un sistema de respuesta temprana? Fuente: ADAPTE 2011 ¿Cuáles de los siguientes medios usa para informarse sobre estas emergencias?

22 Three sets of options Develop communities’ capacities to anticipate and respond (e.g., emergency responses) Address the underlying processes of socio-environmental deterioration that reduce cities’ ability to attenuate hazard impacts Engage with the socioeconomic and institutional factors underlying poverty and social exclusion that contribute to differentiated capacities to adapt (e.g., access to land and housing) Xochimilco from Mexico City’s South

23 Thank you! RS-Cities Exploring key intersections between urban development and environment http://www.ral.ucar.edu/csap/themes/rs-cities.php


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