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Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization Abdel Omran. The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology.

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Presentation on theme: "Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization Abdel Omran. The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology."— Presentation transcript:

1 Epidemiologic Transition: Changes of fertility and mortality with modernization Abdel Omran. The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the epidemiology of population change. Milbank Quarterly. 1971;49: pdf

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3 Imhotep, the "father of medicine". The word "Imhotep" means "he who comes in peace'

4 Herodotus, after his visit to Egypt in the Vth century B.C., stated that Egyptians were, with the Libyans, the healthiest people. This must have implied a good deal of sanitation. Cleanliness, was religious as well a hygienic obligation. Prevention in Egypt

5 Medicine is a science from which one learns the states of the human body with respect to what is healthy and what is not, in order to preserve good health when it exists and restore it when it is lacking Ibn Sina, the opening to the Qanun fi al-tibb

6 Medicine is a science from which one learns the states of the human body with respect to what is healthy and what is not, in order to preserve good health when it exists and restore it when it is lacking Ibn Sina, the opening to the Qanun fi al-tibb

7 Charles Darwin Evolution of Species Abdel Omran Evolution of Disease

8 Epidemiology  Psychiatric Epidemiologists  Diabetes Epidemiology  Cardiovascular Epidemiology  Cancer Epidemiology  Infectious Disease Epidemiology

9 Instead at looking at individual diseases, we need to look at the patterns of diseases

10 Mortality is the fundamental factor in the dynamics of population growth and causes of death. Mortality has no fixed upper limits. Thus if fertility approached its upper maximum, depopulation would still occur.

11 During the epidemiologic transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are replaced by degenerative and man-made diseases...

12 Age of Pestilence and Famine Characterized by high mortality rates, wide swings in the mortality rate, little population growth and very low life expectancy

13 Age of Receding Pandemics Epidemics become less frequent, infectious diseases in general become less frequent, a slow rise in degenerative diseases begin to appear

14 The shifts in disease patterns in the 19th century were primarily related to changing SES. With the 20th Century more related with disease control activities independent of SES: e.g. Mexico, China

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19 Epidemiologic Transition in Developing and Developed Countries

20 35 years 14 years

21 Changing Life Expectancies 20 yrs 5 yrs

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25 Population Life Expectancy Infection CA CHD Other Violence Increasing Life Expectancy and Causes of Death

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30 Epidemiologic Transition Mortality Rates Infectious Diseases NCD

31 Death Rates for TB in England and Wales

32 TB Bacillus Identified Chemotherapy BCG Vaccination

33 Death Rates for Measles in Children in England and Wales

34 Immunization begun

35 Epidemiologic Transition Mortality Rates CA CHD NIDDM Trauma

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41 Importance of Geographic Patterns

42 Incidence of Stomach CA Males

43 Breast Cancer Incidence Females

44 CHD Death Rates Males, aged 45-54

45 Cirrhosis Death Rates, Males, aged 45-54

46 High Incidence of NCDs in Developing Countries ] Possible Infectious Etiology Macronodular Cirrhosis Macronodular Cirrhosis Hepatocellular Carcinoma Hepatocellular Carcinoma Rheumatic Heart Disease Rheumatic Heart Disease Iron deficiency anemia Iron deficiency anemia ] Related to Nutrition Deficiency Endemic Goiter Endemic Goiter Malnutrition Related Diabetes. Malnutrition Related Diabetes.

47 High Incidence of NCDs in Developed Countries Cardiovascular Cardiovascular CHD CHD Deep Vein Thrombosis Deep Vein Thrombosis Respiratory Respiratory Emphysema Emphysema Lung CA Lung CA Female Genital Female Genital Endometriosis Endometriosis Endometrial CA Endometrial CABreast Breast CA Breast CA Fibrocystic Disease Fibrocystic Disease Male Genital Male Genital Prostrate CA Prostrate CA Metabolic Metabolic NIDDM NIDDM

48 Back to Nature  Improved Physical activity  A Healthier Diet, less saturated fats, more fiber  Less Stress

49 Transition  Nomads  Farmers  Urban 45 yrs 60 yrs 70 yrs

50 1960 Urban Rural USA Developing Countries ruralurban

51 2007 Urban Rural USA Developing Countries rural urban

52 Causes of Death n Age Accidents Accidents CA CA CHD CHD n Age CHD CHD CA CA Accidents Accidents Age Accidents CHD CA Age CHD CA Accidents DevelopedDeveloping


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