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Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展 --变革和挑战 Donald E. Orr, Jr. President, JBS United, Inc. Chairman Elect – American.

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Presentation on theme: "Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展 --变革和挑战 Donald E. Orr, Jr. President, JBS United, Inc. Chairman Elect – American."— Presentation transcript:

1 Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展 --变革和挑战 Donald E. Orr, Jr. President, JBS United, Inc. Chairman Elect – American Feed Industry Association 当奥博士, 美国联合营养公司,总裁 美国饲料工业协会,主席(当选)

2 Seven Pillars of Hog Production 养猪生产的七大支柱 –Access to affordable feed grains 有充足的优价饲料资源 –Infrastructure costs 基础设施成本 –Regulatory requirements 法规要求 –Access to and cost of capital 资金来源和成本 –Labor cost and availability 劳动力成本和来 源 –Management expertise and practice 管理经验和手段 –Large domestic market pork consumption 当地的消费市场 RaboBank, 2005

3 Largest Pork Producers 2007 美国养猪公司排名 RankName of OperationHeadquarters# Sows 1Smithfield FoodsSmithfield, VA1,227,000 2Triumph FoodsSt. Joseph, MO403,700 3Seaboard FoodsShawnee Mission, KS213,600 4Iowa Select FarmsIowa Falls, IA150,000 5Prestige FarmsClinton, NC142,000 6The Pipestone SystemPipestone, MN135,600 7The Maschhoff’s, Inc.Carlyle, IL115,000 8CargillMinneapolis, MN107,000 9AMVC ManagementAudubon, IA95,000 10Maxwell Foods, Inc.Goldsboro, NC85,000 11Tyson FoodsSpringdale, AR70,000 12Hormel FoodsAustin, MN63,000 Top 1-20 ProducersTotal3,124,700

4 Firm size (thousand head mktd. annually) 1988199119941997200020032006 Less than 1 32% 23% 17% 5% 2% 1% 1 - 2 19 20 17 12 7 85 2 - 3 11 13 12 10 5 3 - 5 10 12 10 7 43 5 - 10 9 10 12 10 96 10 - 50 12 13 16 18 1921 50+ 7 9 17 37 51 59 65 Share of Annual U.S. Hog Slaughter by Year and Size Category 美国不同规模的养猪公司年生猪宰杀比例 U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

5 Firm Size (thousand head mktd. annually) 19941997200020032006 50 - 50057127136149164 500+ 9 18 20 24 27 Number of Large Firms Producing Hogs 美国大型猪场数量 U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

6 How Firms Plan to Expand 2006-09: Percent of U.S. Hogs Owned by All Firms Reporting 猪场扩张展望 Percent of Hogs Do not plan to market more hogs28% Market more through existing facilities34% Construct new facilities50% Purchase existing facilities11% Contract for more finishing space10% U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

7 Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1996-2008 美国依阿华州养猪盈利 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

8 Cost of Slaughter Hog Production 美国生猪成本 Iowa State University Calculations, 1990-2008 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

9 Changes in live weight in Midwest USA herds over 20 years. 美国上市生猪体重变化

10 Changes in whole herd feed efficiency in Midwest USA herds over 20 years. 美国猪群饲料报酬变化

11 Feed: gain changes adjusted for live weight 饲料报酬以体重调整后的变化

12 Throughput Trends in US (Agri-Metrics) 上市体重变化

13 Throughput Trends in US (Agri-Metrics) 每头母猪年生产小猪头数

14 Throughput Trends in US (Agri-Metrics) 每头母猪年生产猪肉量

15 U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board. Production Information 2006: Percent of All U.S. Hogs Affected 二○○六年猪场生产情况 Feed is self-prepared54% Replacement gilts are purchased32% Hogs are raised indoors94% Feeding is split sex64% Facilities are wean-finish29% Grain raised by own firm35%

16 Grain Market Factors 谷物市场因素 Energy Prices 能源价格 –Biofuels World Supply 世界供应 –Grain carryovers declining Growing World Demand 世界需求增长 Weak Dollar 美元疲软 –Encourages exports –Inputs more expensive Feed Demand 饲料需求 Fund Trading 资金需求 Market Volatility 市场浮动 –Risk premiums Inflation 通胀 Credit Crunch 信用(资金)限制 Acreage Balance/Expected Production 种植面积 / 生产供应 Weather 气候变化

17 Use of AI in the USA Swine Industry 人工授精技术的使用 1990 only 5% of the sow were artificially inseminated 2000 approximately 60% were bred with AI 2007 > than 90% bred with AI Typical dose is 75-80 ml, 2.5-3 billion sperm cells/dose Singleton, WL. 2001. Theriogenology 56:1305-1310

18 Firm Size (thousand head mktd.) 1-33-55-1010-5050-500500+ Collected by firm 10%25%16%26%11%86% Purchased 77%69%70%63%71%33% Part-owned stud 13% 5%14%11%23%14% Where Firms Acquired Semen 猪精来源 (percent of firms responding in size category) U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

19 Firm Size (thousand head mktd.) 1-33-55-1010-5050-500500+ Load by load 82%65%67%57%28%32% Negotiated contract 9%16% 35%38%89% Group contract 10%17%19%21%56% 5% Own packing plant 4%5%9%10% 4%42% Other 4%7% 4% 1% 5% How Firms Marketed Slaughter Hogs, 2006 生猪是怎样销售的 (percent of firms in size category) U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

20 Percent of Hogs Sold on Carcass Merit Basis 依胴体价值定价 Firm Size (thousand head mktd. annually) U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

21 Firm Size (thousand head mktd.) Farrowed by contractorsFinished by contractors 19972000200320061997200020032006 1 - 50 10% 5%15%3%14% 9%13%12% 50 - 500 8% 13%14% 9%13%12%14% 500+ 22%26%4041%22%33%39%40% Total 40%39%6855%45%55%64%66% Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised by Firms That Are Contractors 公司由提供合同进行(合约)养猪的比例 1997-2006 U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

22 Firm Size (thousand head mktd.) FarrowedFinished 19972000200320061997200020032006 1 - 50 1% 2% 7% 1% 8% 3% 5% 7% 50 - 500 4% 7% 5% 4% 7%10%11%14% 500+ 11%13%17%15%16%21%25% Total 17%22%23%20%30%34%41%46% Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised under Contract, 养猪户依照合同来养猪的比例 1997-2006 U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

23 What Do You See as the Greatest Challenges to the U.S. Pork Industry over the Next 5 Years? 未来五年最大挑战 U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board. Rank: 1 = extremely serious 6 = not serious Firm Size (1,000 hd. mktd.) 1-5050-500500+All Disease & health management 疾病 2.32.12.02.1 Compliance issues 法规 2.72.0 2.2 Maintaining desired productivity 生产力 2.42.62.02.3 Animal care & well-being, animal activism 动物福利 2.82.02.52.4 Input purchasing 成本 2.9 1.92.6 Alternative feeds: profitability & environ. impact3.02.52.8 Establishing consumer trust & confidence2.73.02.72.8 Finding, training, retaining employees4.02.12.42.8 Facilities management & maintenance3.03.43.03.1 Health effect of prod. on employees & neighbors3.53.63.93.7 Finding higher value pork alternatives, niche mkts.3.8 4.13.9 Reorganizing farm business3.95.14.14.4

24 Unprecedented Times 前所未有的境遇 $120 / barrel oil At least 4.1 billion bushels of 08/09 corn crop used for ethanol. (33% of projected production) Corn carryout of 0 – 5%. (Very low, maybe negative without any weather issues). What happens if there is even a modest drought? Greenwood, 2008

25 At least 7% more market hogs in 2008 功过于求 $5.50 + corn/bu 玉米价格 $340 + soybean meal/ton 豆饼价格 $280 / ton feed cost (finishing ration) 饲料成本 Abundant finishing spaces open / available 育肥栏过剩 US Breeding herd has been growing a very modest 1- 2% annually. 繁殖猪群增长 Canada paying producers $225 to eliminate sows from production / food chain. 加拿大淘汰母猪补助计划 Greenwood, 2008 Unprecedented Times 前所未有的境遇

26 Signature Farms 联合公司养猪生产部 1.Feed costs increased dramatically 2.Sale weights were heavy – feed efficiencies biased upwards as a result 3.Questions/issues a.What is the impact of altering feed composition on profitability? b.What is optimal/most profitable sale weight? -How is that weight achieved? STRATAPLAN™

27 Putting the STRATAPLAN Model to Work 联合养猪生产模式 Impact of reducing diet cost – removing fat, removing Paylean, adding DDGS –Reduced both diet costs & pig performance –+ $4.42/pig Optimal/most profitable sale weight – ingredient costs at $6/bu corn –258-270 lbs (live) –Net effect of achieving weight: + additional $2-3/pig Achieved through a combination of selling ahead, reducing total days in barn STRATAPLAN™

28 Financial Impact 对回报的影响 Feed composition/costs: + $4.42 / pig –Annualized: $1,800,000 Selling at most profitable wt: + $2 to 3 / pig –Annualized: $800,000 to $1,200,000 Grand total: + $6.42 to 7.42 / pig –Annualized for Signature Farms: + $2,600,000 to $3,000,000 STRATAPLAN™

29 Livestock Industry In Crisis 养殖业的严峻挑战 U.S. Estimated Cost of Production Per Head 美国每头猪饲养成本估计 2008 Total costs: $165 to $170 2006 Total costs were $110 2008 Feed cost per head = $105 2006 Feed cost per head = $52 Greenwood, 2008

30 Global View of Costs 世界养猪成本 Spain costs per head were at Euros converts to $217 for a 235# pig 西班牙养猪成本 Breakeven is $.92 live 平本价每磅 $0.92 All of Europe is struggling 整个欧洲面临困境 Corn in Spain was $8.67 bushel 西班牙玉米价格 $0.34/kg Soybean meal was $500 a ton 豆粕价格每吨 $500 U.S. is the most competitive 美国最具竞争力。 Greenwood, 2008

31 Conclusion 结论 Risk Management will be more critical in the future. 风险管理更加关键 Hog Prices as all protein prices will go up – food inflation will occur. 猪肉价格持续 增长,食品通胀将发生 This will speed up more integration of the industry. 行业将进一步整合。 Greenwood, 2008

32 Thank You.


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