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Alok K. Sikka Deputy Director General (NRM) Indian Council of Agricultural Research New Delhi Climate Change: Production Variability and Diversity.

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Presentation on theme: "Alok K. Sikka Deputy Director General (NRM) Indian Council of Agricultural Research New Delhi Climate Change: Production Variability and Diversity."— Presentation transcript:

1 Alok K. Sikka Deputy Director General (NRM) Indian Council of Agricultural Research New Delhi Climate Change: Production Variability and Diversity

2 Indian agriculture has to feed 17.5% of the global population with only 2.4% of land and 4% of water resources at its disposal.  Large country with diverse climate  Sixty percent of net sown area rainfed  High monsoon dependency  Increase in frequency of extreme weather events  Diverse seasons, crops and farming systems  Close link - climate and water resources  Small holdings, poor coping mechanisms and low penetration of risk management products Climate Change and Indian Agriculture- Challenges

3 Trends in temperature, atmospheric CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O  Atmospheric CO 2 concentration has crossed 400 ppm.  Methane concentration increased from 800 to 1800 ppb.  Nitrous oxide concentration increased from 270 to 320 ppb.  Heat stress on agriculture would intensify in coming years.  Climatic variability will also increase causing more uncertainties with agricultural production. IPCC 5 th Assessment Report (2014)

4 Emission of greenhouse gases from various sub-sectors of agriculture in India in 2010 Currently N 2 O from soil and fertilizer is the 2 nd largest source

5 Climate at district level (Pre 1970) Climate at district level (Post 1970) Moist sub-humid districts in eastern region turned dry sub-humid

6 Delay in onset of monsoon projected in Western and peninsular region Increase in Total rainfall in western India hints at possibility of extreme events

7 Increase in Max and Min Temperatures across India

8 Probability of increase in heat wave

9 Cyclone-proneness Drought Incidence Area prone to floods (%GA)

10 2009 -Third worst monsoon since 1901 (1918-25%, 1972- 24%) Source of data: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation Drought in 2009-10 and its impact on Foodgrains production

11 Extreme events becoming matter of concern Year SWM Rainfall Departure (%) 2001-15 2002-19 2003+2 2004-13 2005 2006 2007+5 2008-2 2009-23 2010+2 2011+1 2012-8 2013+6 2014-12  2002 drought  20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh  Extreme cold winter in the year 2002-03  Drought like situation in India in July 2004  Abnormal temperatures during March 2004 and flood in 2005  Floods in 2005  Cold wave 2005 - 06  Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006  Abnormal temperatures during 3 rd week of Jan to 1 st week of Feb 2007  All India Severe drought 2009  2010 – One of warmest years  2011 – Failure of September rains in AP  2012 – Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat & Karnataka. Cyclone, AP floods  2013- Uttarakhand Flood, Phalin cyclone, and hailstorms  2014- J & K Flood, cyclone ‘Hudhud’

12 Hail frequency in India (1978-2011) Impact on crops Hail Storms

13 District level vulnerability assessment completed More vulnerable districts identified Vulnerability Atlas

14 Impacts of climate change in 2020 scenario on various crops Irrigated rice, wheat and mustard productions may be reduced by 6%, 4% and 4%, respectively. Adaptation strategies can compensate the reductions. Rice MustardWheat Rice

15 Impacts of climate change in 2020, 2050, 2080 scenario on various crops CropClimate Change Impact RiceProjected reduction in rice productivity (2020 to 2080): 4-10% in irrigated rice & 2.5 to 6% in rainfed rice Pollen sterility and poor germination of pollen due to high temperatures, adverse effect on basmati rice WheatProjected reduction in wheat yield (Global - MIROC3.2.HI, Regional - PRECIS): 6-23% by 2050; 15-25% by 2080 High thermal stress during post flowering period reduced wheat yield by 18% Mustard60% reduction (projected) Potato12% reduction (projected) Apple1°C increase in the Himalayan region is adversely affecting apple yield Sorghum2-14% reduction in Kharif sorghum yield by 2020 Worsening impact by 2050 and 2080 Maize18% reduction at regional level in irrigated kharif maize by 2050 due to warming which can be partly off-set by increased rain MilkAnnual loss (production) of 1.8 mt by 2020 based on ambient THI with maximum impact in U P, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and West Bengal

16 Sensitivity of rice yields to change in minimum temperatures  Rising trends in minimum temperature -negative impact on rice yields.  About 268 districts exhibited a negative impact of rising temperature and 49 of them showed statistical significance.  Negative impacts mostly in the on the eastern parts, Madhya Pradesh and Indo-Gangetic Plains. Correlation between district level minimum temperature rice yields

17 April Baseline April 2030 THI map(s) to Identify Different Strategic Locations for assessing Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production

18 Impact of Thermal Stress  Both increase in T max (> 4 o C above normal) during summer and decline in T min (>3 o C than normal) during winter, negatively impact milk production  The northern India is likely to experience more negative impact of climate change on milk production  The decline in milk production will be higher in crossbred (0.63%) than buffalo (0.5%) and indigenous cattle (0.4%)  Frequency and incidence of mastitis, FMD, tick born diseases affecting crossbred cows and other high producing animals may increase due to increase number of stressful days  Rise of 1-2˚C will marginally affect Milk production but rise of more than 2˚C will increase incidence of silent estrus, short estrus and decline in reproduction efficiency

19 Recent Government Initiatives on Climate Change in Agriculture TimelineInitiativeObjective 2004ICAR - Network Project on Climate Change To quantify sensitivities of food production systems to climate change scenarios Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agro- ecosystems Policy support for international negotiations on global climate change 2010 (approval) PM’s Council - National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) Evolve National Policy on climate change Initiate eight National Missions 2013MoA – National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) Enhance agricultural productivity and sustainability through adaptation measures on 10 key dimensions of Indian agriculture Judicious utilization of resources of commons via community based approach

20 National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) Objective To enhance resilience of Indian agriculture (including crops, livestock and fisheries) to climatic variability and climate change To demonstrate site specific technology packages on farmers’ fields to cope with current climatic variability To enhance the capacity of scientists and other stakeholders in climate resilient agricultural research and awareness of impacts NICRA Project Components  Strategic Research  Technology Demonstrations  Capacity Building  Sponsored / Competitive research grants Rainfed crop production systems Soil, water and nutrient management Irrigated crop production systems Monitoring of GHGs Horticultural production systems Energy efficiency in agriculture Improved machinery for adaptation and mitigation Livestock and Dairy sector Fisheries including Aquaculture All aspects covering the production systems in NE Rainfed crop production systems Soil, water and nutrient management Irrigated crop production systems Monitoring of GHGs Horticultural production systems Energy efficiency in agriculture Improved machinery for adaptation and mitigation Livestock and Dairy sector Fisheries including Aquaculture All aspects covering the production systems in NE Programme Area

21 Major Achievements  Extensive field phenotyping of germplasm of target crops (rice, wheat, maize, pigeonpea, tomato) to multiple abiotic stresses  District level vulnerability mapping – Atlas prepared  Technology development for climate resilient horticulture  Role of NRM in adaptation – Biochar, CA, water foot prints and emission reduction through efficient energy management, quantification of carbon sequestration by agroforestry  Unique traits for thermal tolerance in livestock mapped, heat care mixture for poultry ready for commercialization  Relationship established between increase in SST and catch and spawning in major marine fish species.  Three years of on-farm technology demonstrations came up with several models for upscaling under NMSA

22 Coping with current climate variability: Demonstrating climate resilient technologies on farmers fields in vulnerable districts

23 TDC NICRA NRM Livestock & Fisheries Institutional Interventions Crop Prod. Technology Demonstration Modules (4 modules) Implemented through KVKs In-situ Ex-situ RWHS Tolerant cultivars Planting time Crop diversification Contingency interventions CHC Seed/ Fodder bank Tolerant Breeds Shelter Mngmt Health Feed/ Fodder

24 In-situ Rain Water Harvesting Structures Demonstrated on 67 ha involving 229 farmers Value of convergence Rs 800000 Umarani village, Nandurbar Convergence with MGNREGA

25 Staggered Community nursery technique To avoid transplanting of over-aged seedlings (medium to long duration varieties in lowlands) Nursery sowings on 15 th June, 28 th June and 12 th July Technique adopted by the State Dept. of Agriculture, Bihar in 2013 (Rs 16500 /acre nursery) Coping with delayed onset of monsoon

26 TechnologyInput cost (Rs/ha) Av. Yield (q/ha) BC Ratio Direct Seeding Seed @ 30 kg/ha 14100/-45.02.19 Conventional method (60-80 kg/ha) 18900/-47.01.85 Timely sowing Water saving (25%) Diesel saving for pumping (27%) Labor saving (35- 40 mandays) Early maturity (7- 10 days) for timely rabi cropping Low methane emissions / less GWP (33% reduction compared to Tp) Timely sowing Water saving (25%) Diesel saving for pumping (27%) Labor saving (35- 40 mandays) Early maturity (7- 10 days) for timely rabi cropping Low methane emissions / less GWP (33% reduction compared to Tp) Punjab, UP, Bihar & Jharkhand Direct Seeded Rice: Coping with monsoon delay Scope for upscaling North-west IGP, Biahr, Jharkhand, Odisha, AP, Chattisgarh

27 CropNormalIntervention MustardLast week of Oct to Ist week of Nov 1-15 Oct. Wheat05-20 Dec.15-30 Nov. Chick pea Last week of Oct to Ist week of Nov 10-25 Oct. Nov,4,2011Oct,13,2011 Nov,19,2011 Advancing Planting date to escape from terminal heat / drought – Satna, MP Dec,17,2011

28 Tolerant paddy cultivars Yield (q/ha) % increase in yield B: C ratio DemoLocal Swarna Sub-141.2533.7518.92.09 MTU-1061 45.2828.123.11.84 MTU-1140 55.1 31.873.22.01 Demonstration of Tolerant Paddy varieties in Flood prone areas MTU-1061 Swarna sub-1 TDC Flood tolerant paddy varieties demonstrated in Assam, AP, Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal, Gujarat Identified performing varieties in low, medium and high inundation areas Submergence tolerance from 7-10 days Increased yield due to reduced extent of lodging Prevented loss in grain and straw yield MTU-1140

29 Change of cultivars and potassium spray helped farmers save paddy crop from floods post Neelam cyclone timm Swarna (MTU-7029) Indra (MTU-1061) 4.1 t/ha 5.6 t/ha Sirsiwada village could save Rs.45 lakhs worth paddy in one season

30 Conservation Agriculture and Carbon Sequestration in Rainfed Agriculture (Maize - horsegram system (2012-13 ) Residue retention of kharif maize and ZT improved soil profile storage capacity and C sequestration which helped grow post rainy- horsegram, in rainfed Alfisols: Otherwise monocropped region

31 Improved planting methods to increase rainwater use efficiency & crop productivity Crop stand in BBFDrainage in furrowsMaking of BBFs Soybean at Datia, MP BC ratio: 3.51 vs 2.41 Onion atTumkur Additional gross returns: Rs.1,50,000/- Cotton at Aurangabad

32 Short duration drought tolerant cultivars : Answer to reduced duration due to climate change Source: AICRPDA-CRIDA, Hyderabad CRIDA

33 Intercropping - the best way to Adapt to climate change by small holders (eg.India)

34 Crop diversification in Rice-wheat system : Short duration maize & pigeonpea Interventions DemoCritical inputNo of farmer Area (ha) Yield (Q/ha) DemoLocal% increase MaizeShort duration varieties Seed Var. GK3017 Var. DMH849 1047.540.218.7114 Economics of Demo Rs/ha Economics of Local Rs/ha Gross CostGross Return Net ReturnB:C:RGross Cost Gross Return Net Return B:C:R 1875056280375303.00166502431076601.46 South Bihar MAL-13

35 Crop No. of. farmers Area (ha) Av. Yield (q/ha) Gross Cost (Rs/ha) Gross Return (Rs/ha) Net Return (Rs/ha) BC Ratio Groundnut357.7185002464061401.33 Castor1568.831625032671164212.01 Foxtail millet15 12.3750023000155003.07 Castor + pigeonpea (1:1) intercropping Field day on ‘foxtail cultivation’ Crop diversification – Contingency measure

36 Conventional Raised Bed planting Crop Diversification of Wheat with Maize and Bed Planting 20-25 % Saving in irrigation water Opportunity for crop diversification Suitable for mechanical weeding & reduces herbicide use Source: NATP Irrigated Ecosystem CRIDA

37 Agro-forestry systems to provide more stable incomes during years of extreme weather events (eg.India) Neem + Cowpea Guava + stylo Faidherbia Albida+Sorghum Mango + Greengram Leucaena + Sunhemp

38 Minimize risk from a single enterprise in the face of natural calamities and diversified enterprises Year round income to farmers in monocropped paddy growing areas and improve their livelihoods and resilience to extreme weather events. Integrated fish-duck farming Rice-fish-poultry farming Integrated Farming System modules

39 Declining apple yields in Himachal due to inadequate chilling Source: HPKVV/ICAR network Shift in apple cultivation to higher elevations due to non fulfillment of chilling requirement and replace d with non-traditional horticulture

40 Community Seedbank: Dubri, Assam InterventionPurpose Maintenance of seed bank Quality seed of submergence tolerant and short duration late transplanted rice varieties for flood affected area Quality seed of summer rice and toria for rabi

41 Most Popular Implements in CHCs Zero till drill Drum seeder Rotavator Happy seeder Ridge & furrow planter Multi crop planter Multi crop thresher Power tiller Small Farm Mechanization through Custom Hiring Centers Facilitates timely sowing operations in narrow windows of moisture availability Precision planting, good germination and better crop stand Access to small & marginal farmers of costly machinery Crop residue recycling Water saving, in situ moisture conservation Increase in crop productivity Labor saving Multiple operations e.g. planter & rotavator Revenue generated: Rs. 18,00,000 Sustainability fund: 25% of revenue TDC

42 Village Climate Risk Management Committees constituted in all NICRA villages Bank account opened for each VCRMC Custom hiring centres for farm machinery setup in all NICRA villages Proceeds of hire charges deposited in bank and managed by a sub committee New enthusiasm due to financial empowerment of village institutions Regular meetings held for resolving community related issues while implementing NICRA interventions VCRMC- Key institutional Intervention

43 Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch NRM interventions In-situ measures Farm bunding with pucca waste weir, 41 farmers, 82 ha, convergence with DWDU Stop dams for community use (3) (Farmer contribution @ Rs 1000) Recharging of wells Efficient use thro’ drip irrigation (convergence) Border plantation (578 fruit plants)

44 Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch Crop Inteventions Cumin (GC-4), 170 demos, 68 ha, 32% increase, 9.5 vs 7.2 q/ha) Cotton (drip irrigation), 20 farmers, 31 ha Cluster bean (GG-2), 100 demos, 40 ha, 26% productivity increase (17.5 vs 13.8 q/ha) Castor (GCH-7), 15 demos, 6 ha, 16% productivity increase (40 q vs 36.6 q/ha)

45 Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch Livestock interventions Improved shelter for livestock for heat stress (5 models) Community fodder production – Dhaman grass Breed improvement in the village (3 pure breed Kankrej bulls) Cattle health, 678 animals, convergence with Dept. Milk yield increased by 15-25% in the village

46 Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch VCRMC Custom hiring centre Rs 30000 Seed bank Fodder sorghum (Gundri) (860 kg), Lucerne (620 kg) Community fodder bank, 380 animals, 142 livestock owners 24 meetings, Bank deposit Rs 3.25 lakhs Zonal Monitoring Committee (ZMC) recommendations:  Mineral Nutrient Feed Blocks  Scaling up of seed & fodder bank

47 Simple agronomic options can increase adaptation

48 Conclusions Climate change is a reality  Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to climatic variability and climate change.  This will be one of the major factors influencing future food security.  Adaptation strategies including technological interventions, management practices, institutional and policy interventions can help minimize negative impacts.  Crop and/or land use diversification may be one of the proposition.  Under technology demonstration component of NICRA, a number of climate resilient practices and technologies have shown promising results.  Mainstreaming of these smart practices in NMSA has begun with a Policy Dialogue with the Ministry of Agriculture for its out scaling.  Initiative taken for follow-up of TDC on cluster village basis through National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change.  Need for evolving suitable insurance products for risk minimization and promote climate change mitigation and adaptation.

49 Thank you !

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