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RIHN E-E REG 2013.1.25 Toward sustainable society in monsoon Asia ―how to cope with complex problems of natural disasters and human-induced environmental.

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Presentation on theme: "RIHN E-E REG 2013.1.25 Toward sustainable society in monsoon Asia ―how to cope with complex problems of natural disasters and human-induced environmental."— Presentation transcript:

1 RIHN E-E REG 2013.1.25 Toward sustainable society in monsoon Asia ―how to cope with complex problems of natural disasters and human-induced environmental issues― Tetsuzo Yasunari Professor of Hydrospheric-Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University Chair, Japan National Committee for Global Environmental Changes, SCJ

2 More than 60% of the world population is occupied in monsoon Asia

3 http://www2.ttcn.ne.jp/honkawa/9050.html Population density of the world 世界の人口の 60 %以上が集中するモンスーンアジア

4 A: Rice agriculture with paddy fields in monsoon climate and ecosystem Q: how has this region enabled to have this huge population and traditional societies with less poverty condition ?

5 Rice production within a limited area of monsoon Asia can afford more than 60% of the world population (UN ) http://www.pref.aichi.jp/0000034108.html

6 http://stlab.iis.utokyo.ac.jp/~wataru/publication/pdf/agropedia2006.pdf Rice paddy field distribution (MODIS)

7 Precipitation and moisture transport in monsoon season (JJA)

8 http://blog.livedoor.jp/syoukaibu/?p=6 A typical view of terrace rice paddy field (TANADA) in Japan

9 http://blogs.yahoo.co.jp/taketake5295/folder/929079.html?m=lc&p=5 Terraced Rice paddy field in Nepal (ネパールの棚田 )

10 Monsoon Asia is a huge tectonic zone on the earth

11 Tectonic zone (with frequent earthquakes, land slides…..) of the world

12 http://www3.aa.tufs.ac.jp/~kmach/map.htm Monsoon Asia corresponds well with a huge tectonic zone in Pacific-East Eurasia ⇒ Tibet-Himalaya region produces moist monoon climate over east-southeast-south Asia ⇒ tectonic zone (mountains with numerous faults) provide many alluvial terrains in valleys and plains ⇒ all the rice pddy fields are reclaimed in these alluvial terrains. (Musiake, 2006)

13 Rice-paddy fields ~ alluvial areas another important geomorphological characteristic of monsoon Asia

14 The fertile alluvial plain and valleys in Japan islands were formed after the last glacial period (20Ka~ present) Our ancestors have formed a sustainable agricultural system and associated traditional society in these alluvial areas, coping with frequent natural disasters (of floods, droughts, earthquakes, landslides etc.) 島根県出雲平野 愛知県四谷千枚田

15 The Great Earthquake and Tsunami in Eastern Japan 2011.3.11

16 Natural conditions for inducing extreme events (disasters) are, at the same time, blessing of nature in monsoon Asia People here have managed or tried to harmonize their life with these natural condition, to form a traditional human- nature system called “ 風土 (Fudo)”.

17 Monsoon Asia has become a major center of world economic activity

18 Global GDP distribution (2005) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_GDP_per_region_2005.png Asia

19 World GDP Density distribution 2007 http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/01/sachs.png

20 http://www.megacities.uni-koeln.de/documentation/megacity/map/MC-2015-PGM.jpg Mega-cities in the world (世界の巨大都市の分布)

21 Monsoon Asia has become a hot- spot region of the global environmental issues /emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols and its climate impacts / water and soil pollution / biodiversity loss

22 Optical thickness by sulfate aerosols Air pollution by sulfate aerosols ( 硫酸塩エアロゾルによる大気汚染 Pollution by Carbon Monoxide (CO) 一酸化炭素による汚染 Monsoon Asia is one of the major emission areas of Air and water pollutants.

23 (肥料使用による)窒素の負荷はすでに生命圏を壊しつつある

24 Impact of GHG increase on hydro-climate and water cycle is becoming serious over the whole globe, but……

25 全大陸における Heavy rain (豪雨)が、総降水量に 占める割合(%)が増加している (1950-2005) (IPCC 2007) 22.5%

26 Published by AAAS B. N. Goswami et al., Science 314, 1442 -1445 (2006) Indian monsoon rainfall (1951 - 2000) Very heavy and heavy rainfall days are increasing, But moderate/weak rainfall days are decreasing. 並雨( 5100mm/day) 豪雨 (R>150mm/day) Moderate rain Heavy rain Very heavy rain

27 East Asian monsoon (1960-2000) (Endo, Yasunari and Ailikun, 2005 JMSJ) Yantze river basin: heavy rainfall is increasing Yellow river basin: drought is increasing 増加減少 Heavy rainfall

28 Annual Precipitation in Japan (1898-2009) slightly deceasing, but increasing of variability 全国 51 地点月降水量データ

29 Trend values of rate-classfied (1 to 10) rainfall amounts in the past 100 years in 4 regions of Japan Northern Japan Eastern Japan Western Japan Southwest islands Strong rain ( 8,9,10 ) show increasing trends, but weak rain (1-5) Show decreasing trends.

30

31 Change of 20-year return values of annual 24-hour maximum precipitation (%) associated with GHG increases (to 2100) SREX-2012 (IPCC, 2012)

32 A hydro-climate issue in monsoon Asia (SREX 2012)

33 The Asian Challenges This region is located in the midst of world tectonic zone and monsoon climate, which cause high frequency of complex natural disasters (e.g., massive earthquakes, Tsunamis, landslides, typhoons, floods and droughts). The region as a whole is characterized by rapid population, economic growth and urbanization, which are vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change, particularly of extreme regimes. Associated with this rapid population & economic growth, this region has also become a huge hot-spot of air and water pollutions, damaging human wealth and eco-climate system of regional to global scale. ⇒ To cope with these Asian challenges is a key not only for regional but also global sustainability


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