Presentation on theme: "Where India has come from to become a major food exporter: Lessons for East Africa Ram C. Chaudhary Chairman, Participatory Rural Development Foundation,"— Presentation transcript:
Where India has come from to become a major food exporter: Lessons for East Africa Ram C. Chaudhary Chairman, Participatory Rural Development Foundation, India Ram.Chaudhary@gmail.com
India after Independence in 1947 - 1965 1943 Bengal Famine: 3 million died of starvation Basket case country of hungry and food importers: western press. Dependent on PL480 & Food Imports. Still food crisis continued. Hunger death & mal-nourishment rampant
15 years later (late1970s) Drought of 1965-66 forced India to change its agricultural policy. Food self-sufficiency targeted. Wheat yield increased from 0.8 tons / ha of 1960s to 4.7 tons /ha in 1970. Era of Green Revolution; food production soared.
Now India world’s largest producer Source: FAOSTAT 2012 1.Areca nuts 2.Buffalo Meat 3.Chick peas 4.Chillies and peppers 5.Castor oil seeds 6.Fruits 1.Ginger 2.Jute and bast fibres 3.Milk 4.Pulses 5.Sunflower seeds 6.Sorghum & Millet 7.Spices
International Grains Council In 2012 India largest rice exporter (8.7 m tons). Still warehouses are over-flowing and storage problem with new crop harvested. While still selling 25 kg rice /month for 1 US$ to 10 million BPL (Below Poverty Line) families. With 4.2% water and 2.4% land it feeds 17% of world population !!!
Current superlatives for India Largest democracy with 1.21 billion people 4 th largest economy of the world. Largest area under wheat, rice, cotton, pulses (beans) and spices. Largest producer of fruits, milk, pulses (beans) and spices. Second largest producer of wheat, rice and a number of other foods
Current superlatives continued… Improved road, power, technology and reforms yield up by 500% over 40 years. Agriculture did not develop in Isolation ! Between 4 richest billionaire of the world and 300 m poors, 900 m vibrant middle class as stabilizer & power-house of India.
Productivity (kg/ha) growth in India over last 40 years (1970 to 2010) Crop1970 – 19711990 – 19912010 – 2011 Rice1,1231,7402,240 Wheat1,3072,2812,938 Pulses524578689 Oilseeds5797711,325 Sugarcane48,32265,39568,596 Tea1,1821,6521,669 Cotton106225510
Major thrusts of 12 th Plan in Agriculture 1.New technologies: Demand-driven & innovation-led R & D funded by 1% increased to 2% of GDP. 2. Technology dissemination: ATMA at district level, and now RKVY for convergence. 3. Rainfed agriculture: RFD Authority to coordinate. 4. Seed System: National Mission on Seed to coordinate public and private sectors; assure policy intervention. 5. IPM / NPM / Organic Agriculture: Promotion as environment friendly, safe to health and sustainable. 6. Land & tenancy reforms: In most states farmers owned and heritable, in remaining one under process.
Major thrusts of 12 th Plan….. 7. Livestock & Fishery promotion:- Already has White Revolution in milk yet striving for major increases. Poultry and Fishery sectors will receive technological innovations. 8. Market linkage:- For small and medium farmers reforms put in place to reduce farm and market-gate prices. 9. Crop Insurance:- Agriculture is risky and to avoid farmers losses due to crop failure, crop insurance introduced. 10. These steps will pave for 2 nd Green Revolution.
Reduced share and increased growth in Agriculture (%) PlanShare of AgricultureAvg. growth rateTotal Economy % IX Plan184.108.40.206 X Plan19.02.47.6 XI Plan220.127.116.11 XII Plan14.04.08.0
What made Indian Agriculture CLICK ? (in Billion US$) SectorXI 5 Year PlanXII 5-Year Plan DAC8,26714,000 DARE2,5185,100 DAHD & F1,6353,500 RKVY5,00012,000 State Agric Dept2,36550,144 Total39,78584,744
Major policy incentives by Govt. Minimum Support Price (MSP):- MSP is announced well ahead of planting season. Govt. obliged to buy the produce if prices fall below MSP. Subsidy on Inputs:- N, P & K fertilizers heavily subsidized. Seed is VAT free sold subsidised. Private Sector incentive: Zero VAT attracts investment in Seed Sector. Farmers get cheaper seed.
Policy incentive contd. Reduced Dependence on Agriculture:- Share of agriculture in GDP reduced from 51 % in 1951 to 14.2 % in year 2011. Convergence:- Many agencies & schemes. Non coordination and duplication. Converged under RKVY. Inclusiveness:- Small, medium, large farmers cared in the policies. All benefit to the same tune.
Policy support to farm sector MNREGA to guarantee 100-day jobs for unemployed agricultural labourers Warehouse Receipt system since 2006. Repeal Cess Act in 2006 to remove 0.6% tax on agricultural produce in marketing Kisan Credit Card:- for farmers to access credit.
Human Resource Develeopment 53 State Agricultural Universities ( with 2,000 or more students / univeristy) 5 Central / Deemed Agricultural Universities 4 Universities with Agriculture Faculty 700 Regular agricultural scientists 1,100 Extension workers
R & D institutions in agriculture 97 Crop or discipline oriented Central Research Institutes of ICAR. 61 agricultural research institutions. 61 All India Coordinated Research Projects with 50 – 250 testing centres. 591 KVK (Agri Science Centres) for Demo. 100s of R & D centres of private sector & 225 larger NGOs
Outputs do follow plans Annual pass-outs of students: - Ph D: 2,000 - M. Sc: 8,000 - UG : 25,000 Crop varieties released over last 40 years: - Rice: 271 - Wheat: 130 - Maize: 80
ICAR tracks food demand (m tons) to prepare research strategy and growth (%) required Commodity2016-172026-27 Annual growth % over 2011-12 Rice110.2122.01.1 Wheat89.1107.21.9 Maize19.324.22.4 All cereals257.3295.01.5 Pulses21.729.73.1 Fruits96.9164.05.1 Milk141.1217.54.2 Meat, Fish, eggs15.829.45.9
Largest farm produce by value in India: Target 2030 RankProduce Economic value Avg yield (2010) World's highest (2010) (2009, b US$)(t / ha) Country 1Rice$35.743.310.8 Australia 2Buffalo milk$25.071.71.9 Pakistan 3Cow milk$14.091.210.3 Israel 4Wheat$18.104.22.168 Netherlands 5Sugar cane$8.6166125 Peru 6Mangoes$8.126.340.6 Cape Verde 7Bananas$7.6037.859.3 Indonesia 8Cotton$5.811.64.6 Israel 9Potatoes$5.3119.944.3 USA 10F.Vegetables$5.2813.476.8 USA
Brief Profile of 4 East African countries (FAOSTAT 2012) ItemKenyaRwandaTanzaniaUganda Agric area (000 km 2 ) 27,3502,00035,50013,962 Organic area (000 km 2 ) 4.233.707.222.27 Population in Agriculture % 70%89%73% Food supply (kcal/capita/year) 2,092 USA = 3,688 2,1882,1372,260 Food import 2010 (million US$) 1,272157761531 Food export 2010 (million US$) 2,127104771702 Main export Tea 50% T+C offee 50% TobaccoCoffee 33%
Cereal yield (t/ha) in Asia &Sub-Saharan Africa (1961 – 2001)
Cereal production kg/person Asia &Sub-Saharan Africa 1961-2001
State of World under-nourished (Hunger Task Force of IFAD) Country1990-19921995 - 19972000 - 2002 India 252117 Kenya 443834 Rwanda 445237 Tanzania 46 40 Uganda 242622
Food Insecurity in the World 2012 (FAO report 2012
Who the hungry are? (Source: Hunger Task Force)
Duration of longest crises in African Countries 1986 - 2004
Kenya: Brief Country Profile, 2012 ItemValue Country area (km 2 )58,037, 000 Population41,610,000 Agricultural population29,163,000 Food Import value1,272 million US$ Major food imports Palm oil, Wheat, Rice, Sugar, Maize etc. Agricultural Export value 2,127 million US$ Major agricultural exports Tea (50%), Coffee, Fresh Vegetables, flowers etc.
Rwanda: Brief Country Profile, 2012 ItemValue Country area (km 2 )2,634,000 Population10,943,000 Agricultural population9,761,000 Food Import value157 million US$ Major food imports Sugar, Palm oil, Rice, Wheat, Maize etc. Agricultural Export value104 million US$ Major agricultural exports Coffee, Tea etc.
CAN AFRICA BE THE FUTURE RICE BOWL FOR ASIA ? Ram C. Chaudhary and Dat Van Tran, 2000 International Rice Development Conference, Philippines In major Asian countries rice area hit ceiling, now declining. Chinese, Indians, Bangladeshi, Viets, Middle Eastern, Europeans make a “Rice-Rush” in Africa. Use them and not abuse them as “land-grabbers”. Get a firm National Plan for Rice Production in place and invite donors and investors alike. Show your strong political will, supportive advocacy and consistency in policy.
Current & Potential area for rice in E. African countries (FAOSTAT 2012; That, 1982* Country 2011 Area (ha)Potential area (ha) * Kenya 20,181223,000 Rwanda 12,975100,000 Tanzania 720,0007,538,000 Uganda 140,0003,177,000 Total 2,291,45634,163,000
CountryArea (ha)Production (t)Import (t)Value (000 $) Ethiopia13,30025,20024,49813,000 Kenya20,18180,042296,16496,116 Madagascar1,350,0004,737,970106,79845,804 Rwanda12,97567,25325,6909,155 Somalia3,60014,600108,38542,202 Sudan6,40023,35032,61518,850 Tanzania720,0001,104,89013,0467,750 Uganda140,000218,11179,96433,151 Total 2,308,3566,373,925742,646303,770 Area, Production and Import of Rice in East Africa (FAOSTAT 2012, Unbroken rice data of 2010, import 2009)
Rice in Uganda Rice introduced in 1904 by Indian traders. Cultivated in Upland and swamp in 140,000 ha and produce 218,111 tons. Consumption 250,000 tons annually but growing @10%. Favourable rain (1250 – 1370 mm) and temperature (15 – 30C) round the year make continuous rice cultivation possible. Import 79,964 tons for US$33.2 million. Population 31.8 million growing @ 3.5%. Under NRDS plan to produce 465,000 tons by 2018. Potential to become “Seed Basket of East Africa ”
Shaping the future in East African Agriculture Analyze the ground realities. Count on your strength (resources, UN and CGIAR institutions, COMESA, ACTESA, others ) Plan & Policy (well defined, inter-regional trade) Implement with transparent honesty Provide LEADERSHIP
Leadership: Dr Abdul Kalam, ex President India, July 2012 Leader must have a vision. Leader must have passion to realize the vision. Leader must be able to travel into an unexplored path. Leader must know to manage success & failure. Leader must have courage to take decisions. Leader should be transparent in every action. Leader must work with & succeed with integrity.