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Housing 2020 : What is Shaping the Future of Housing in Virginia.

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1 Housing 2020 : What is Shaping the Future of Housing in Virginia

2 Problems emanating from the housing market forced financial institutions to take massive write-downs on their mortgage portfolios, igniting a broader banking crisis. Amid fears about the strength of banks and severe losses of both housing and stock wealth, consumer confidence plunged 41 percent below its lowest previous trough. Households slashed their spending and—for the first time on record—cut their net borrowing. State of the Nation’s Housing 2009

3 Where we’ve been in the last 5 years Our housing market has been defined by the housing crash over the past 5 years. Over 100,000 homes foreclosed in Virginia Construction of new homes nearly came to a halt Sales of existing homes dipped to record lows Nearly 25% of mortgages in Virginia are underwater or near underwater The homeownership rate began to decline for the first time

4 After several false starts, there is reason to believe that 2012 marks the beginning of a true housing market recovery. State of the Nation’s Housing 2012

5 We’re beginning to hear noises that we’ve reached a major turning point in the housing market — and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target? It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves don’t clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down. Robert Schiller, NYT, January 26, 2013

6 Housing 2020: Why? As traumatic as it was, we need to look beyond recovery from the Housing Crash There are sweeping trends that are re-shaping housing in seismic ways. Our housing markets and products will be affected. Understanding these trends and their impacts will help us prepare our communities to take advantage of them.

7 THINK BIG: What is shaping the future of housing in Virginia over the next decade?

8 Demographics Economics Finance Green/Sustainability

9 Part 4: Green Housing 2020

10 Green / Sustainability Changing consumer preferences Green homes / communities are mainstream Implications for affordability “Walkable” and transportation oriented housing Technology advances – “Smart” houses 3 rd party certification programs

11 Green / Sustainability Sandra Leibowitz at Sustainable Design Consulting Founder, owner, and Managing Principal of Sustainable Design Consulting Sandra draws from nearly two decades of advanced experience in sustainable design projects and organizational programs to serve developers, architects and builders with expert green building/ LEED consulting and process management

12 Housing has a BIG carbon footprint

13 How will our Homes be different in 2020 ?

14 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “GREEN” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

15 What is the overall impact that GREEN will have on our quality of life in 2020 ?

16 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “GREEN Boost in Quality of Life” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

17 GREEN is now Mainstream 45% of AEC firms expect to have green jobs by 2014, in line with the green building market share of 48%-50% by 2015.

18 GREEN housing is Mainstream “Bye-bye McMansions. Hello modest, energy efficient homes in walkable communities. The era of bigger is better, fueled by “fictitious wealth,” has ended. That’s why Nashville builder Larry Chastain is leading the way in building smaller homes, without extra bedrooms and bonus rooms that people don’t use but have to heat. He’s making spaces more functional while giving buyers a home with the highest green certification.” Nashville Business Journal

19 Urban / “village” living is green and growing.

20 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “New Urbanism” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

21 Locational trends are CLEAR

22 More energy efficient materials and design will increasingly be the rule in home constrution.

23 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “New Standards in Energy Efficiency & Materials” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

24 Higher quality, more durable materials will also be the rule.

25 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Increase in Quality and Durability of Materials” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

26 Changing the mindset about affordability and quality.

27 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Quality and Cost of Building Materials” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

28 Maintaining / expanding community support for affordable housing requires good quality and design.

29 Cost vs. savings

30 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Cost vs. Savings in GREEN Building” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

31 Green housing: Why should LMI households care?

32 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Affordability of GREEN Building” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

33 Home size begins decline

34 Size will matter in the future… Less of this… More of this…

35 Shift towards smaller, urban homes

36 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Smarter Urban Living” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

37 Why houses Will get smaller Affordability is important in age of frugality Energy costs will continue to rise Aging boomers will DOWNSIZE Millennials: Big house / big yard. Tighter credit for big mortgages Small-home buyers don't have to sacrifice… better home design / multi purpose spaces.

38 The Age Wave & Green Design: Aging in place Aging in new places

39 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Aging in Place” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

40 3 rd party certifications: Confusing for consumers ?

41 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Future of GREEN Certification in Housing” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

42 Three important policy tools to advance sustainability in housing

43 Housing Virginia Video Presentations “3 Policy Goals for Sustainable Housing” by Sandra Leibowitz Click to view videoClick to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

44 Takeaways: GREEN/Sustainability Consumer preference for GREEN will continue to grow GREEN housing is more affordable…in the long run GREEN communities / not just homes Homes will be smaller – more space and energy efficient Urban, “suburban village”, walkable, transportation focused Construction materials / construction advances will run ahead of codes Technology may outpace user capability in Smart Homes Green certifications will consolidate

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