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2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II1 UCERF3.2: Hazard Implications Hazard comparison metrics Inversion testing –Convergence and eqn. set weighting Hazard maps –Influence of logic tree branches –Contributions to changes in hazard Hazard curves at sites

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Hazard Evaluation: Metrics Ground motion values: –2% in 50 years(Prob. Exceed.) –10% in 50 years(Prob. Exceed.) –RTGM (1% Prob. Collapse in 50 yr.) Frequencies –PGA –5Hz –1Hz Curves:NEHRP (2009) Test Cities Other WGCEP, PBR Maps:Full logic-tree for PGA (1440 branches) Partial tree for 1Hz (40 branches) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II2

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Hazard Metrics: RTGM Risk Targeted Ground Motion (RTGM) Adopted by BSSC in conjunction with 2009 NEHRP provisions Ground motion for 1% probability of collapse in 50 years Computed at frequencies: 5Hz and 1Hz Scalar valued Considers entire hazard curve 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II3

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Hazard Curves: Inversion Convergence 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II4 San Diego PGA San Francisco 1Hz Examine variation over repeated inversion runs Single “reference” branch 100 runs

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Hazard Curves: Inversion Eqn. Weights 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II5 San Diego PGA San Francisco 1Hz Examine effect of varying inversion equation weights 11 weight variants

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Hazard Maps: UC2 vs. UC3 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II6

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Hazard Ratios: Grid vs. Fault Sources 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II7

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Hazard Ratios: Grid Source Comparison 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II8

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Hazard Ratios: Smooth Seis. Comparison 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II9

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Branch Ratios: Fault Models 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II10

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Branch Ratios: Deformation Models 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II11

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Branch Ratios: Magnitude Scaling Rel. 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II12

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Branch Ratios: Dsr (slip along rupture) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II13

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Branch Ratios: M≥5 rate 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II14

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Branch Ratios: Off-fault M max 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II15

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Branch Ratios: Smoothed Seis. models 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II16

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Hazard Ratio: Sources of Change Explain all non-yellow areas –Smoothed seismicity model –New faults, slip changes, or Mo rate changes –Methodological changes

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Shows influence of M max & total M≥5 rate increase for gridded seismicity UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08 Grid Sources Only (and using only U2 Smoothed Seis.) Sources of Change: M max & M≥5 rate

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Shows influence of tighter U3 Smoothed Seis. Model UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08 Grid Sources Only (using both U2 & U3 Smoothed Seis.) Artifact of “Deep seismicity” being excluded from denominator map Sources of Change: Artifacts

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UCERF 3.2 / NSHMP08 Grid Sources Only (using both U2 & U3 Smoothed Seis Map) Influenced by UCERF3 smoothed- seismicity branch Shows influence of tighter U3 Smoothed Seis. Model Sources of Change: Grid Sources

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UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Big Lagoon-Bald Mtn : Extended N ~60 km, and moment rate ~8 times higher on ABM Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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New faults: Klamath Falls Lake E & W UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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Gillem and Cedar Mtn. faults have lower slip rates UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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Four new faults Likely Fault (moment rate doubled) UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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8 new faults (ABM rates high due to block boundary) Maacama (20% increase in moment rate) West Napa (factor of 3.5 increase in Mo rate, ABM about 4 times higher than others) UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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Great Valley 07 (Orestimba) moment rate went down by ~60% New Great Valley faults UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension Complex combination of new faults and geometric and rate changes UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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New fault: Oceanic – West Hausna (NeoKinema rate more than 4 times higher than others) 3 new faults UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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New fault: Lost Hills Mix of new faults & gridded sources New faults in Mojave UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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New Fault: Cerro Prieto New faults: San Clemente San Diego Trough Santa Cruz Catalina Ridge San Pedro Basin UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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Cucamonga: biggest methodological change Death Valley Faults (North, South, and Black Mtn. Frontal): moment rates went down ~40% UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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Anacapa Dume: moment rate down by factor of 3 UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black Sources of Change: Fault Sources

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Addition of, or moment rate change on faults UCERF3/UCERF2 Mo Rate Log10(Mo ratio); new faults are black

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Hazard Analysis Sites 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II34

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Hazard Analysis Sites 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II35

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Hazard Curves: Blue: Logic tree weighted mean hazard curve (UC3) Light Blue: Logic tree min max hazard curve range Red: UC2 logic tree weighted mean (solid), min and max (dashed) hazard curves Green: NSHMP reference value Ground motion histogram of logic tree branches summed over weights Tornado diagram 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II36

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Hazard Curves: Los Angeles 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II37 PGA1Hz

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Hazard Curves: San Francisco 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II38 PGA1Hz

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Sites with changes > 10% 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II39 SiteGroupchange ReddingWGCEP287% BrookingsWGCEP257% San DiegoNEHRP137% Carson CityWGCEP127% Long BeachNEHRP122% VallejoNEHRP121% NorthridgeNEHRP119% Big SurWGCEP118% Century CityNEHRP114% SiteGroupchange San BernardinoWGCEP88% Malibu WestWGCEP86% EurekaNEHRP86% PalmdaleWGCEP85% Santa RosaNEHRP83% OaklandNEHRP82% Death ValleyNEHRP64% CucamongaWGCEP59%

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Hazard Curves: Redding (x3) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II40 PGA1Hz

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Grid & Fault Conributions: Redding 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II41

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Hazard Curves: San Diego (140%) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II42 PGA1Hz

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Hazard Curves: Vallejo (120%) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II43 PGA1Hz

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Hazard Curves: San Bernardino (88%) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II44 PGA1Hz

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Hazard Curves: Oakland (82%) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II45 PGA1Hz

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Hazard Curves: Cucamonga (50%) 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II46 PGA1Hz

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Hazard Ratios: PGA vs. 1Hz 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II47

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Hazard Ratios: PGA vs. 1Hz 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II48

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Hazard Ratios: Logic-Tree Weight Variation 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II49

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Continued UCERF3 analysis… Branch averaged solutions Deaggregation Stacked histograms of ground motion distribution at sites for each logic tree node (branch correlations) Repeat convergence and equation weight tests Higher resolution maps around San Francisco and Los Angeles Hazard analyses online: –http://opensha.usc.edu/ftp/pmpowers/UCERF3.2/ 2/21/20132013 USGS NSHMP CA Workshop II50

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