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“New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) © Gresham College 2009 Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce Michael Mainelli Beyond Price Trust Me, I’m Commercial
© Gresham College 2009 Outline Trust is not a good Trust in theory, and diagrams Trust in games Trust in volatility Trust in money Trust me, I’m human “Get a detailed grip on the big picture.” Chao Kli Ning
© Gresham College 2009 Bond, Commercial Bond
© Gresham College 2009 Motherly Trust
© Gresham College 2009 Agency Theory [Source:
© Gresham College 2009 Information Theory Encoder Interpreter A Decoder Interpreter B Encoder Message Feedback [Source, Schramm, 1954]
© Gresham College 2009 Trust Theory P/A A/P obligates performs evaluation & self interest evaluation & self interest Experience TTP Security Trust Anticipation
© Gresham College 2009 Nobody Loves Me Like I Love Me [Source:
© Gresham College 2009 Trust Equation Reputation = Σ (Experiences – Anticipations) Obligation Trust = Reputation
© Gresham College 2009 Trust In A Game
© Gresham College 2009 Mexican Standoff [Cat-eyed tree-snake, deadlocked with a Morelet's treefrog -
© Gresham College 2009 Experiences
© Gresham College 2009 Anticipations
© Gresham College 2009 Green Shoots Of Anticipations
© Gresham College 2009 Experiences Tighter Than Anticipations Mediocre/Poor – had expected better Adequate - better than expected, though not expecting much Reliable Disastrous Amazing
© Gresham College 2009 Anticipations Tighter Than Experiences DisappointingExceptional Disastrous Amazing Reliable
© Gresham College 2009 Accumulated Differences Disinformation Experience Anticipation Positive difference Negative difference Large difference Small difference Disastrous Amazing Poor Information Reliable Adequate
© Gresham College 2009 A Problem Created … Is A Margin Improved 100,000 customers 5,000 'normal' problems create 95,000 problems increase problem catch-rate to 96% Returning Customers Recommendations 100,000 customers 95,000 normal experiences 5,000 problems problem catch-rate 4% 84,550 3, , ,000 uncaught 1, ,240 2, , , , ,
© Gresham College 2009 Building Trust – Slow Path Anticipations Experiences difficulties tough times goodwill commitment
© Gresham College 2009 Sowing Betrayal – Fast Crossover Anticipations Experiences creating trust trusting taking advantagebetrayal
© Gresham College 2009 Volatility Makes Friends Disinformation Experience Anticipation High volatility Low volatilty High volatility Low volatility Dangerous Exciting Boring Information Reliable
© Gresham College 2009 Trusting Souls [Source: “What’s our policy on trust?”
© Gresham College 2009 VIX TO RealitY [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (inflation), Wikipedia (historical VIX)]
© Gresham College 2009 Trust Me, I’m Human [Source:
© Gresham College 2009 Discussion 1. How can we know when we’re too suspicious – the opposite of “too trusting”? 2. Can we ultimately automate trust?
© Gresham College 2009 Beyond Price Trust Me, I’m Commercial Thank you! “Get a big picture grip on the details.” Chao Kli Ning
“New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)
© Z/Yen Group 2010 Z/Yen Group Limited Risk/Reward Managers 5-7 St Helen’s Place London EC3A 6AU United Kingdom tel: +44 (20) Professor Michael.
© Z/Yen Group 2010 “New Learning” Barnard’s Inn Hall Holborn London EC1N 2HH Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)
The Prospects Service © Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Was Karl Marx always wrong? Year 2, Lecture 3 Douglas McWilliams Mercers School.
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L C C I E B LONDON CHAMBER of COMMERCE & INDUSTRY EXAMINATIONS BOARD EFB.
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Chapter McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Valuation and Rates of Return 10.
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Fundamentals of Communication Chapter 1-Introduction to Human Communication.
I‘m really into ……… florbal Positives Teamwork Quick game Steam off Like hockey Wins Passing, shooting Comunication with team-mates Negatives Travelling.
THE 2nd FM EXCELLENCE CONFERENCE Cambridge 2005 Looking DAPR How Dynamic Anomaly and Pattern Response Will Change the Management of Facilities Michael.
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