Presentation on theme: "Making Climate Change Work: Challenges and Opportunities for Economy and Development in Cambodia Lay Khim, E&E Team Leader, UNDP Cambodia Asia Economic."— Presentation transcript:
Making Climate Change Work: Challenges and Opportunities for Economy and Development in Cambodia Lay Khim, E&E Team Leader, UNDP Cambodia Asia Economic Forum – 7 April 2009 Presentation structure: 1.Climate change in SE Asia and Cambodia 2.Cambodia: Projection and implications 3.Potential opportunities 4.Current initiatives to build upon 5.Conclusion
Vulnerability to climate change Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards, sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity
2. Cambodia: Projection and Implications Cambodia ’ s temperature would increase up to C in 2100 Annual rainfall would increase between 3 and 35% from current condition; lowland areas seem to be more affected than highland areas (Source: First V&A Assessment: with two Global Circulation Models (GCM) : CCSR & CSIRO, and two emission scenarios: SRESA2 & SRESB1) Cambodia mean annual temperature anomaly Source: Oxford University (2008)
Potential Impacts – floods & drought Cambodia is vulnerable to floods and droughts. High dependency on rain-fed farming makes agriculture sector particularly vulnerable. Floods and drought are recognised as one of the main contributors to poverty. Map of flood-prone communesMap of drought-prone communes Source: WFP (2005)
Various implications Destructive floods have become more frequent in recent years. (INC) Past known economic losses: Between , floods caused 70% of production losses of rice, while drought 20%. The floods of only caused USD 205 million damage. Cambodia’s economy is rated as one of the most vulnerable to impacts of climate change on fisheries. (Allison et al 2009) Sea level rise – e.g. 1m rise can submerge 56% of Koh Kong City damage to infrastructure, agriculture, tourism, and livelihood
Various implications (cont.) Risk of water quality degradation and sanitation Significant implications for food security, especially in undiversified agriculture & economy (High dependency on single crop rice and low processing capacity within the country) Health: increase in water-related / tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue. Neglecting climate change impacts could reverse the current development efforts and investments. e.g. Irrigation or infrastructure development scheme not considering future climate change scenario could fail due to changing climatic conditions in the near future.
3. Potential opportunities Appropriate technologies for climate change adaptation, energy efficiency and renewable energy schemes available for transfer to developing countries Low carbon economy will enhance economic efficiency Benefits from carbon trading / financing Climate change related financing increasingly available (bilateral donors, UNDP, WB, etc.) Scope for private sector engagement, contribution & benefit.
Energy supply – e.g. improved supply and distribution efficiency, Renewable sources, security and access Transport – e.g. Hybrid vehicles, emission standards, biofuels, Public transport, non-motorised transport Buildings – e.g. passive and active solar integrated buildings, improved insulation Industry – e.g. Upgrading of factories, processing lines / schemes etc. Agriculture – e.g. improved agricultural practices Waste management – e.g. landfill methane recovery; waste to energy; composting; recycling and waste minimization Forestry – e.g. Reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation Opportunities for low carbon economy and enhanced economic efficiency (Examples from IPCC)
Carbon trade global value: 2006USD 31 billion 2007USD 64 billion 2008USD 118 billion Untapped potential in Cambodia and SE Asia in carbon finance: - Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) e.g. Samrong Thom Methane-fired Power Generation Total GHG emission reduction for 7 years: 47,544 tCO2e Total income at $15/tCO2e: US$ 713,160 - Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) Carbon Finance Source: New Carbon Finance
$$$ Pig sale $$$ Electricity sale $$$ Carbon credit Invest in Biogas Digester Invest in GHG emission reduction One Cambodia example: benefits for investor Samrong Thom Methane-fired Power Generation
4. Initiatives to build upon in Cambodia Highest-level recognition of climate change as a threat to Cambodia: Rectangular Strategy-II (Sept 2008) Policy tools increasingly available (NAPA) Institutions and policy tools being set up (e.g. National Committee on Climate Change involving 19 ministries / govt agencies; National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)) Increasing recognition of schemes such as CDM and REDD by government and non-government entities Various financial and technical support potential from development partners Growing private sector
5. Conclusion Climate change is not an environmental issue – it is a developmental challenge & potential opportunity Neglecting climate change impacts could reverse the current development efforts and investments. Cost of not acting is significant. Measures to create crisis resilient economy have a lot in common with increasing adaptive capacity to climate change, when due consideration is made. Ensure climate change mainstreaming in all sectors: agriculture, water, finance, health, infrastructure, energy, transport, construction, tourism… various tools, technologies and financial resources available for the governments, private sector and CSOs Major role for private sector in creating: - low-carbon economy (cleaner and more cost-effective development) - self-reliant & resilient economy - expanding appropriate climate change adaptation schemes
Still great scope of regional collaboration in financing, technology transfer, research & development, information and data sharing e.g. high resolution climate data available in Japan would help include many important future climate characteristics of the SE Asia region, especially tropical storm. e.g. more responsible Direct Foreign Investments should ensure climate change considerations both in mitigation and adaptation terms. Furthermore:
Thank you Some images in the presentation reproduced with permissions from: Economy and Environment Programme for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) Helsinki University of Technology Southeast Asia START Regional Centre For UNDP’s work on climate change in Cambodia, please contact: Lay Khim, Team Leader & Assistant Country Director, Halley McCann, Climate Change Programme Analyst, Environment & Energy Cluster UNDP Cambodia