1. Winter component of the T-PARC Yucheng Song 1, Zoltan Toth 2, Yoshio Asuma 3, Rolf Langland 4, Carolyn Reynolds 4, Edmund Chang 5, Jack Parrish 6, Istvan Szunyogh 7, Chris Doyle 8, Trevor Smith 8, Mel Shapiro 9, Alexander Kats 10, Mark Moran 11, Christina Prates 11, Cihan Sahin 11, David Richardson 11, Tim Hewson 11 (1) Plurality at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, USA (2) NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, USA (3) University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan (4) NRL, Monterey, CA, USA (5) SUNY, Stonybrook, NY, USA (6) NOAA/AOC, MacDill AFB, FL, USA (7) Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA (8) Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada (9) UCAR, Boulder, CO, USA (10) Roshydromet/CAO, Moscow, Russia (11) ECMWF, Shinfield Park, UNITED KINGDOM Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TISS) 2009.09.14-18 10:10-10:30

2. Motivations Operations Preliminary evaluations Summary Outline

3. CASE DEPENDENT, ETKF-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE ON THE WINTER STORM Sharan Majumdar March 05 March 04 March 07March 06 Verification eventMarch 11

4. 20 more times bigger errors than initial condition error after 5 days GFS “dropout” case

5. The time-mean geopotential height of the 300-hPa surface for (a) WSR99 and (b) WSR00. The sample period starts at 0000 UTC 13 Jan 1999 for WSR99 and at 0000 UTC 23 Jan 2000 for WSR00. Shown by shades is the daily amplification of the most unstable baroclinic mode (Eady index) for the time-mean flow in the 850– 925-hPa layer. Dropsonde locations are shown by crosses Szunyogh et al. 2002, M.W.R Storm track regions are most unstable regions a) b)

6. Day -4-6 RAWIN Russia D -2-4 G-IV D -1-3 C-130 G-IV North America VR Arctic VR Day -5-6 E-AMDAR Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and North America ENHANCED OBSERVING PLATFORMS

7. Collaborative efforts of winter T-PARC among multi-agencies CONTRIBUTORS / PARTICIPANTS Funding for observing assets –NOAA, Env. Canada, Roshydromet, Japan Science / operational aspects –US, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Japan, ECMWF/UKMO (including Universities and Institutions) Data archiving –NASA Langley Research Center Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (NASA)

8. OPERATIONS

9. The main website is the central place for forecast products and discussions A plethora of products have been used to provide sound guidance to the adaptive platforms Significant amount of coordination among different participants 1.Track redesign due to length change or weather pattern changes 2.Different time zones 3.Air traffic control 4.“Lost in translation”

10. Requests from HPC/SPC/OTHERS - example 46N 148E at 21/12Z Asian low 50N 128W at 23/00Z Vancouver area Priority Valid Time Area Remarks High 02/22-24/12z 40N 123W West coast pcpn Moderate 02/22/00z 39N 80W Eastern US system 02/23/00z 42N 72W Moderate 02/24/00z 35N 90W MS-TN Valley pcpn 02/25/00z 35N 87W High.......02/23/00Z...33N/83W....Upper trof supporting psbl E coast storm Medium.....02/23-24/00Z...40N/122W....CA precipitation

12. ECMWF/UKMO DTS system used as a reference in winter T-PARC

13. Today’s run +36 Our tool to design the tracks based on overlaid summary chart onto Google map

14. Google earth is widely used for track display and distance measurement G-IV and C-130 tracks on Feb 13, 12Z

15. Comparing sensitivity charts with short lead forecasts – as a reference to design the tracks A sound check with short lead time forecast

16. After flight check - track overlaid on MTSAT maps Surface pressure and 500mb geopotential height Courtesy of Dr. Asuma Yoshio

17. Wave packet from analysis From Edmund Chang Wave packet analysis used as a reference timing and location

18. Winter T-PARC platform statistics NOAA G-IV: 24 successful missions, 201hrs flown with 456 dropsondes Out of Japan during Jan 11 to Feb 26, 2009 USAF C-130s: 14 successful missions, 142.8hrs flown with 212 dropsondes Out of Alaska during Jan 20 to Feb 13, 2009 E-AMDAR from Lufthansa airlines: (Descents and Ascents: boxed area) Total: 802+1103=1905 profiles 7040+10600=17640 en route obs From Jan 11 – Feb 28, 2009 Enhanced Russia RAOBS: Total 602 radiosondes released from a selected of 37 stations for 33 cases From Jan 12 to Feb 28, 2009

19. The tireless G-IV crew and their tracks NOAA AOC G-IV crews for T-PARC T-PARC/WSR09 tracks

20. Evaluation Results

21. 21 Overall results for Surface pressure (T-PARC 2009) In certain cases, significant RMS reductions are observed as high as 35%

22. 22 Overall results for vector wind (T-PARC 2009)

23. 23 Surface Pressure RMS vs. Fcst Hours RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time ~10-20% rms error reduction in winds

24. 24 Vector Wind RMS vs. Fcst Hours RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time ~10-20% rms error reduction in winds Beyond 4 days

25. 25 T-PARC Summary statistics Variable # cases improved # cases neutral #cases degraded Surface pressure 37 0 15 Temperature 35 0 17 Vector Wind 36 0 16 Humidity 28 0 24 39 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES. 13 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 75% improved 25% degraded

26. 26 4 significant systems/events Date Verification Region Leading hours Surface pressure RMS (with) Surface pressure RMS (w/o) RMS error reduction Jan 31E (77W, 44N)843.25mb5.45mb67% Feb 06AK (156W, 58N)1327.75mb9.904mb27.7% Feb 13W (115W,35N)721.20mb1.618mb34.8% Feb 24W(123W,40N)1087.07mb9.56mb35.2%

28. Wild West -- The worst weather on this Presidents Day Monday is in California, where rain, snow and wind are pounding most of the state. Flood watches have been posted for coastal areas while winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the eastern part of the state. The worst of the storminess will end later today, as the system moves into the Great Basin overnight and Tuesday. That same storm will eject into the middle and southern states by later Tuesday and Wednesday. Feb 16, 2009 from USATODAY Up to two meters of snow had fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the past week Review the Feb 13, 12Z missions

29. Wild West -- The worst weather on this Presidents Day Monday is in California, where rain, snow and wind are pounding most of the state. Flood watches have been posted for coastal areas while winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the eastern part of the state. The worst of the storminess will end later today, as the system moves into the Great Basin overnight and Tuesday. That same storm will eject into the middle and southern states by later Tuesday and Wednesday. Feb 16, 2009 from USATODAY Up to two meters of snow had fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the past week

30. 30 March 1, 2009 CA Storm Weather event with a large societal impact Each GFS run verified against its own analysis – 60 hr forecast Impact on surface pressure verification RMS error improvement: 35.2% (7.07mb vs. 9.56mb) Targeted in high impact weather area marked by the circle Surface pressure from analysis (hPa; solid contours) Forecast Improvement (hPa; shown in red) Forecast Degradation (hPa; blue)

31. 31 March 1, 2009 CA Storm Forecast improvement Red: forecast improvement Globally averaged fit of surface pressure: Difference of forecast- analysis

32. Major snowstorm roars up coast Atlantic coast braces for biggest snowstorm of the season March 2, 2009, heavy rainfall near CA on the 27 th, Feb WHY T-PARC? The best example

33. Strong connection of the tropical and extra-tropical systems

34. TARGETED DROPSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS Jan 20/12UTC high impact per-observation Summed impact of dropsonde observations (error reduction is NEGATIVE, units are J kg -1 ) Courtesy of Rolf Langland

35. FEBRUARY 2009 1x10 -3 J kg -1 (Moist Total Energy Norm) Total # of targeted radiosonde data = 29,898 (06UTC and 18UTC) Number of targeted radiosonde profiles = 272 (33 stations provided at least one profile) Total targeted radiosonde impact = -0.6626 J kg -1 JANUARY 2009 Error Reduction Error Increase Total # of targeted radiosonde data = 27,508 (06UTC and 18UTC) Number of targeted radiosonde profiles = 247 (33 stations provided at least one profile) Total targeted radiosonde impact = - 0.4322 J kg -1 For comparison: 00UTC and 12UTC observations from these same stations: - 4.24 J kg -1 and 2,154 profiles during all of January 2009 1x10 -3 J kg -1 (Moist Total Energy Norm) Courtesy of Rolf Langland

36. 1x10 -3 J kg -1 (Moist Total Energy Norm) Error Reduction Error Increase Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR ascent/descent data = 17,444 (12-31 January 2009) Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = - 0.583 J kg -1 GLOBAL Lufthansa AMDAR ascent/descent impact = -2.89 J kg -1 and 113,151 data during all of January 2009 JANUARY 2009 FEBRUARY 2009 Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR ascent/descent data = 24,423 (1-28 February 2009) Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = -0.7663 J kg -1 Courtesy of Rolf Langland

37. A myriad of research interests in Winter T-PARC Strong mapping into the US THORPEX Science Plan ( 13 of 15 priorities) Rossby wave packet analysis and IPY connection ( 3.4,4.4 ) Meso-scale storm structure and moist processes studies ( 4.1 ) Multi-scale tropical influences – YOTC ( 3.1,3.3,4.4 ) Data assimilation: best use of observations ( 4.2 ) Satellite data calibration/validation with in situ data ( 4.2 ) Adaptive targeting studies ( 4.3 ) Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting & socio-economic applications - Winter Olympic Demo ( 4.5,5.1-5 ) Field phase completed, data archived by NASA How to support post-field research/evaluation?

38. Data archive contribution by NASA-Langley Research Center Web address: http://science.larc.nasa.gov/T-PARC/ Need user account to access Support sftp and scp for scripting purposes Please contact us: Yucheng.song@noaa.gov Data: satellite data conventional data cloud images with tracks Some DTS products Analysis and forecast (pressure level data) Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (LARC)

39. Summary and Plans Field phase successfully completed –Winter T-PARC marks the first time vertical profiling of winter storms conducted west of the dateline Data archived at NASA (LARC) A wide variety of research opportunities now open –An ideal framework for research studies such as dynamical /physical processes storm initiation/propagation the role of moist processes interaction of tropical convection with extra-tropical storms Socio-economical impact studies Need to identify funding resources for further research Ongoing evaluation –NRL preliminary evaluation large positive impact on the 24hr forecast more than 90% of the data reduced forecast errors –NCEP data denial experiments Full rejection (done) Only rejecting the aircraft data (ongoing) Propose a joint meeting with summer T-PARC next year

40. GDAS: 300mb v (ave:30-60N)PRX2: 300mb v (ave:30-60N)

41. PRX2-PRX4: 300mb v (ave:30-60N)

42. JANUARY 2009FEBRUARY 2009 Sensitivity of 24hr Forecast to initial conditions Courtesy of Rolf Langland

43. WTPARC Targeted Observation Summary – NOGAPS/NAVDAS Impact on moist total-energy 24h forecast error norm in global domain January 2009 Impact# of obs Avg impact per-ob EAsian EAMDAR -0.5830 Jkg -1 17,4443.34 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Dropsondes -0.6679 Jkg -1 27,4442.43 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Russian Raobs -0.4332 Jkg -1 27,5081.58 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 (06z and 18Z) February 2009 Impact# of obs Avg impact per-ob EAsian EAMDAR -0.7663 Jkg -1 24,4233.14 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Dropsondes -0.7176 Jkg -1 32,1722.23 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Russian Raobs -0.6626 Jkg -1 29,8982.22 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 (06 and 18Z) Petropavlosk -0.2047 Jkg -1 3,3966.03 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Courtesy of Rolf Langland

44. WTPARC Targeted Observation Summary – NOGAPS/NAVDAS Impact on moist total-energy 24h forecast error norm in global domain January 2009 Impact# of obs Avg impact per-ob EAsian EAMDAR -0.5830 Jkg -1 17,4443.34 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Dropsondes -0.6679 Jkg -1 27,4442.43 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Russian Raobs -0.4332 Jkg -1 27,5081.58 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 (06z and 18Z) February 2009 Impact# of obs Avg impact per-ob EAsian EAMDAR -0.7663 Jkg -1 24,4233.14 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Dropsondes -0.7176 Jkg -1 32,1722.23 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 Russian Raobs -0.6626 Jkg -1 29,8982.22 x 10 -5 Jkg -1 (06 and 18Z) Petropavlosk -0.2047 Jkg -1 3,3966.03 x 10 -5 Jkg -1

45. Raob Station 32540 Petropavlosk Kamchatskoe (53.02N, 158.72E) Feb 2009 (very large forecast error reduction) Total Impact of all soundings = -0.4281 J kg -1 (10,320 data) Just the 06Z and 18Z soundings = -0.2047 J kg -1 (3,396 data)

46. Station 32540 radiosonde impact on 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS – Feb 2009 Number of Station 32540 radiosonde observations assimilated in NOGAPS/NAVDAS Summed impact of Station 32540 observations (error reduction is NEGATIVE, units are J kg -1 ) 6-hour assimilation windows