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Abrupt Climate Change Modeling Multi-lab IMPACTS Team University Investigators abrupt_climate_change/

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Presentation on theme: "Abrupt Climate Change Modeling Multi-lab IMPACTS Team University Investigators abrupt_climate_change/"— Presentation transcript:

1 Abrupt Climate Change Modeling Multi-lab IMPACTS Team University Investigators abrupt_climate_change/

2 You are cordially invited to attend the Meet your fellow National Laboratory and University Collaborators And learn more about our new University Projects and IMPACTS program Meet your fellow National Laboratory and University Collaborators And learn more about our new University Projects and IMPACTS program When:Thursday, December 18, 2008, 6:00pm – 7:30pm Where: San Francisco Marriott, Golden Gate Room #B2 55 Fourth Street, San Francisco, CA Contact:Helen Prieto, LBNL, (510) When:Thursday, December 18, 2008, 6:00pm – 7:30pm Where: San Francisco Marriott, Golden Gate Room #B2 55 Fourth Street, San Francisco, CA Contact:Helen Prieto, LBNL, (510) *Please RSVP to: by Friday, December 12, 2008* (Appetizers, Hors D’Oeuvres, and non-alcoholic beverages will be served)

3 IMPACTS Investigation of Magnitude and Probabilities of Abrupt Climate TransitionS Mega droughts in N. America Marine ice sheet instability Methane hydrate destabilization Boreal/Arctic climate feedbacks

4 Dynamics of Ice Shelf – Ocean Interaction: Evaluation of Marine Ice Sheet Instability Personnel: W. Lipscomb, M. Maltrud, S. Price, T. Ringler (LANL) Collaborators: David Holland, Carl Gladish (NYU) Goal: Develop and apply a high-resolution, regional, coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf/ocean model to assess the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Progress: – We have developed an ice-sheet/shelf model with higher-order stresses and a dynamic grounding line. The model is being validated for idealized geometries. – We have written a coupler that computes exchange of mass and heat with the ocean, given the mixed-layer temperature and salinity. – Development of the HYPOP ocean model has been proceeding in parallel; the next step is to modify HYPOP to simulate sub-ice-shelf circulati on. Diagnostic shelf velocity compared to benchmark Snapshots of ice thickness and velocity (Ice shelf forced by ocean and run to steady state)

5 Boreal/Arctic-Climate Feedback Riley, Subin, Torn (LBNL); Post (ORNL); Bonfils, Phillips (LLNL); Zhuang (Purdue) Investigate potential for abrupt climate change from – Warming permafrost, peatlands, and lakes – Vegetation range shifts – Coupling with atmosphere Integrated into CLM4/CCSM – Preliminary results Lakes: Methane Release Methane Release

6 Representation of plants in boreal ecosystems Start with CLM-DGVM based on LPJ (Cook et al. 2008) – 5 boreal/arctic PFTs – Boreal Needleleaf Tree, Boreal Broadleaf Tree, Temperate Broadleaf Tree, C3 Arctic Grass. C3 Grass Additional PFTs to address Circumarctic Vegetation – Forbs, sedges, prostrate shrub, dwarf-erect shrub, tall shrub, mosses, lichens Sensitivity of CCSM to vegetation cover exercise with current, paleo- climate, an potential future vegetation Circumarctic Vegetation Classification for Biogeographical Modeling and Paleo-Validation

7 IMPACTS: Climate impact of methane clathrate releases Matthew Reagan (ocean sediments, LBNL), Scott Elliott & Mat Maltrud (oceans, LANL), Philip Cameron-Smith (atmosphere, LLNL) A vast quantity of methane is locked in icy clathrates in ocean sediments, (as much carbon as all other fossil fuels combined). Rapid destabilization of the clathrates due to climate warming would significantly increase methane releases, potentially causing: – ocean dead-zones (hypoxia), – strong greenhouse heating, – increased surface ozone (ie, poorer air- quality), – reduced stratospheric ozone, – intensification of the Arctic ozone hole, Connects to IMPACTS-Boreal project through terrestrial methane releases. Oceanic releases recently reported in East Siberian and Barents Seas.

8 IMPACTS: Mega Droughts in North America: The Role of Biosphere- Atmosphere Feedbacks Lab Personnel: L. Ruby Leung and Xiaohong Liu (PNNL); Celine Bonfils and Tom Philips (LLNL) Climate models projected warming/drying in the Southwest due to a northward shift of storm tracks and expansion of subtropical high in the mid-latitudes We propose to test two hypotheses related to the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks on mega drought in North America - We hypothesize that droughts may be prolonged or amplified through surface and subsurface processes and the subsequent influence on land-atmosphere interactions - We also hypothesize that atmospheric heating due to dust emissions from the mega droughts will have a significant influence on the North American monsoon circulation Diagnostics Study of Droughts Using CMIP3 Pre-Industrial “Control” Simulations Implemented a Dynamic Groundwater Component in a Regional Climate Model to Simulate Groundwater Table Dynamics and its Feedbacks to the Atmosphere

9 University Investigations


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