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1 Modelling the Interactions between Ecological and Social Dynamics in Integrated Natural Resources Management The usefulness of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS)

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Presentation on theme: "1 Modelling the Interactions between Ecological and Social Dynamics in Integrated Natural Resources Management The usefulness of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS)"— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Modelling the Interactions between Ecological and Social Dynamics in Integrated Natural Resources Management The usefulness of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS)

2 2 MAS and Natural Resources Management A spatial grid some entities holding natural resources with their own dynamics Some entities representing management units Several agents using or managing the resources hold by the environment

3 3 MAS and Natural Resources Management z Behaviours and interactions at different levels of organisation z Investigating collective organisation modes and collective decision making processes (testing contrasted scenarios) z A modelling approach to build common representations of a system shared by the stakeholders (scientists, local people, policy makers, politicians) z Adaptive models (run-time modifications) for adaptive management

4 4 A “ Companion ” Modelling Approach model field simulations hypothesis questions Experiments’ plan discussion of hypothesis new questions

5 5 Interacting with Decision Making Processes model field simulations Decision Making Processes

6 6 Which future for the Causse M é jan grasslands ? Michel ETIENNE, Christophe LE PAGE INRA, CIRAD AVIGNON, MONTPELLIER (France) A multi-agent approach to solve environment and land management problems

7 7 1950 2000 The current land dynamics cereals, hay grasslands Natural increase of Woodland pines afforestation population ?

8 8 Historical context zPlantations or spontaneous encroachment of pine are not manage zThe encroachment and the reafforestations of adults are or enter in phase of dispersion zOriginal grasslands (anthropological origin) are threatened zBreeders, foresters and defenders of the nature express multiple and often conflicting social demands

9 9 pine encroachment sheep farm pine afforestation native grasslands croplands

10 10 The questions zHow to imagine landscape changes in a man-made natural environment according to contrasting strategies of land management ? zHow to account simultaneously for productive and heritage stakes ? zHow to support the concertation between agents concerned by the same ecological dynamics ?

11 11 z … or afforestations zEncroachment as a pioneer front fromz … native woodlands... The ecological process 1

12 12 z … > 15 year-old Scots pines zEncroachment from isolatedz … > 30 year-old black pines... The ecological process 2

13 13 Seed catchment 2 Dispersal model ridge 1 ridge 2 Any grassland cell under the wind is invaded Any cell far from the seed-bearers but located inside their seed catchment has a probability to be invaded related to grazing presssure Any cell where mature trees are growing up and located at the eastern edge of a catchment is capable to send seeds to the following catchment Scots pine over15 years-old or black pine over 30 years-old

14 14 The agent-based approach zTo represent the bare zone of the Causse M é jan on the basis of the current scientific knowledge on the ecological dynamics and the pratices of the local agents (MAS 1) zTo make this formalisation accessible to the local agents and share a certain representation of the system with them (Simplified MAS) zTo stimulate reactions of stakeholders facing a virtual situation that is close to their reality (pine encroachment) (Role game) zTo collectively imagine possible management scenarios and to assess their consequences (MAS 1)

15 15 the MAS conception zA territory defined by combining vegetation structures that shelter different resources according to the agents tree + shrub + grassland shrub + grassland tree + shrub grassland tree + grassland crop tree shrub 4 ha/cell

16 16 the MAS conception zThree categories of agents with diverse objectives but which practices modify clearly the pine tree dynamics zFarmers who wish to continue living from sheep husbandry on the Causse zForesters who wish to make profit from investments realised 30 years ago zConservationists who are missioned to conserve a very rich but very instable environment

17 17 Sheep farmer (ewes/cell/year) Productive impacts 5 0,5 1,5 2,5 0 0 5 Forester (m 3 /ha) 0 20 à 50 50 à 100 0 20 à 50 10 à 20 100 à 300 0 BlackPine 0 10 à 30 30 à 50 0 10 à 30 1 à 5 50 à 100 0 Scots pine big + small trees, low density small trees, low density big + small trees, high density grassland a few big trees a few small trees big trees, high density big trees, low density

18 18 Ecological impact on protected flora disappearance of Gagea pratensis, Adonis vernalis disappearance of Gentiana clusii disappearance of Orchis coriophora disappearance of all protected species disappearance of Gagea villosa disappearance of Saponaria bellidifolia no disappearance small trees, low density big + small trees, high density grassland a few big trees a few small trees big trees, high density big trees, low density big + small trees, low density

19 19 Ecological impact on fauna + than 25 % on 6 cells + than 50 % on 6000 cells + than 10 % of pine canopy cover on 1 cell

20 20 Modelling farmers zA farm defined by an equilibrium between crops, rangelands and forests zA certain amount of work for controlling pine trees zSheep rearing practices using more or less rangelands according to their production system zForestry pratices linked with the availability of incentives zLand tenure fixed until retirement zA plausible future for the farm after retirement

21 21 Farmers actions Balance Zoning Evaluating range condition Grazing Consuming forage Adjusting Adapting grazing pressure Intervening or not on pine trees Uprooting or mowing Thinning or felling Negociating or not with the partners

22 22 Grassland Paddock Shrubland Grassland with young pines Crop Grassland with pines Wood Schematic representation of a Farm

23 23 Paddocks

24 24 Modelling conservationists zA landscape to conserve defined by a strong dominance of « open land » zLaw regulations zAn ability to get financial support for the control of pine encroachment zA clear vision of the fauna, flora and landscape stakes zA small owned land zAn ability to influence public policy

25 25 Conservationists actions Zoning Locating zones with high heritage value or farmers with good practices Choosing Moving to the most intesresting zone Visiting other problematic cells Scanning Clearing Uprooting the pine trees Balance / survey Deciding or not to continue to clear pine trees Negociating or not with the partners

26 26 Modelling foresters zManagement units determined according to the origin of the pine stands (afforestation, natural encroachment) zRegimented woodlands zWoodlands divided into woodlots in order to plan the forest management more easily zAn ability to liberate capital and work force to plant and exploit pine trees zA productive vision of pine trees zA patchy and extending land tenure

27 27 Foresters actions Balance Inventory Evaluating pine stands condition Thinning and/or Harvesting Making profit from timber production Planning Scheduling an operation calendar Deciding or not to go on producing pine Planting or not Negotiating or not with the partners

28 28 7 land management strategies zlet nature work zlet farmers and foresters work zlet save the heritage hotspots zlet block the ecological process zLet associate naturalists and farmers zLet develop silvopastoralism zLet recreate the steppe

29 29 Comparing three scenarios according to the “ vegetation ” point of view Let Nature work Silvopastoralismconcerted with naturalists Let recreate the steppe

30 30 Different points of view for a same simulation Timber production (forester) Cutting small pines (farmers - PNC) Heritage interest (PNC)

31 31 The role playing game conception zThe land is described by a cellular-automata able to simulate the vegetation dynamics according to the applied management zthe players, on the spatial entities they are used to manage and according to the results of the negotiations they decide to conduct as their territory is changing

32 32 Simplification of the model zThe constraints of a ludic application yto reduce the time of playing and the role of the computers yto simulate at least 25 years of vegetation dynamics yto warranty the participation of 4 sheep farmers (1 per type) 2 naturalists and 1 forester (maximum 10, 5 et 2) zThe need to simplify the representations ya smaller land ysame size and characteristics of the farms ysimple indicators adapted to the players uses zThe adaptation of the rules ysame rules on vegetation dynamics ycompletely open negotiations

33 33 The game land z2000 cells (5 ha/cell) defining... za serie of pine seed dispersion catchments submitted to a nort-western wind, zand agreggated into 10 sheep farms composed of 50 ha of croplands, 8 paddocks of 50 ha of rangelands, shrublands and woodlands z3 private forests and 1 hunting ground zgrasslands and croplands shelter many endangered species

34 34 forest shrublands steppe crops ++ + + + Natural resources each color corresponds to the overlapping of vegetation layers

35 35 The farmer land grasslands a paddock shrublands grasslands spotted with pine trees croplands grasslands invaded by pine trees woodlands

36 36 The conservationist markers 3234 18 0 indffp ratio j coupes

37 37 After a brief introduction to the game rules meanwhile the PNC analyses the land on the computer The game setting 1 each farmer receives a farm... …and moves to his table with an order to elaborate the grazing calendar 10 minutes later the grazing calendar is put into the computer and the land dynamics is simulated

38 38 The game setting 2 Each farmer receives a new map of his farm and thinks about the strategy to develop with the pine trees meanwhile the PNC set up a negotiation strategy Then for 10 minutes naturalists, foresters and farmers negotiate Lastly the operations planned during the negotiation are put into the computer

39 39 zTo make easier the modelling of the interaction between players zTo share collectively a representation of the pine encroachment process zTo leave totally open the players creativity to develop original strategies of operation and negotiation A role playing game (RPG)...

40 40 zThe MAS permits to test several options of the pine dynamics management and to visualise it according to different view-points zThe coupling with a role playing game permits to imagine plausible adaptation strategies of the agents practices to an unusual ecological process zand to elaborate new markers into the MAS in order to better account for the way the agents perceive the pine trees The feed-back between MAS and RPG

41 41 Perspectives zto compare the impact of contrasting land planning policies on the state of Nature and on the dynamics of farm and forestry activities zto stimulate a collective awareness of environmental problems and to identify the main conflictual points between the agents zto support long term planning during collective negotiations on the management of so-called natural resources

42 42 Reality zthe National Park created a fund to support the preventive control of pine encroachment zThe Chambre d ’ Agriculture and the Communaut é de Communes set up a collective reflexion on the problem of pine trees zA Local Concerted Management Plan was elaborated and financed to pay collectively planned operations zThe Forest Service and the National Park are looking for new procedures to permit anticipated interventions on stratgic ridges

43 43 An Approach Combining an Agent-Based Model and a Role-Playing Game Applied Agent-Based model 1.Expert knowledge Role game 2.Social validation Collective and adaptive learning 3. Collectively discussed scenarios

44 44 Combining ABM and RpG z to produce and collect information and knowledge about behaviours, z to present and explain the model to the stakeholders, and to validate it, z to test scenarios and compare them, by the mean of simulation Building a common representation

45 45 Experiments Irrigated schemes in Senegal Land allocation between grazing and rice cropping activities in Senegal Negotiations between a shepherd and a forester in a Mediterranean ecosystem Discussions between foresters, shepherds and a national park in an ecosystem facing pine encroachment (South of France), Agricultural land-use in North-Vietnam, Environmental mediation about phytogenetics resources management in Madagascar

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