1. 2020: A Strategist Approach – How the Changing Face of Higher Education and America Will Affect Who You Are and What You Do Bryan J. Cook Director, Center for Policy Analysis American Council on Education

2. The Major Trends  Significance of 2020  Who will learn?  Waning boomlet  Traditional redifined  Where are the guys  Exploding diversity  Who will teach?  Who will lead?

3. Bold Goal: 2020 “…by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world” -President Barak Obama

4. Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34) 2007 US Degree Attainment Top OECD Country in 2020 (projected) 37%60%

5. The Problem: 2007 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34) Degree Attainment + US citizens with some college, no degree = US Degree Attainment 37%21%58%

6. The Problem: Degree attainment and Population Change (age 25 to 34 ) Race Percent with college degree in 2007 Increase in population by 2020 Hispanic20% Black28% White47% Asian73%

7. The Problem: Degree attainment and Population Change (age 25 to 34 ) Race Percent with college degree in 2007 Increase in population by 2020 Hispanic20%30% Black28%23% White47%8% Asian73%15%

8. Percent Change in NY Population by Race, 2005 to 2025 Source: US Census Bureau

9. Higher Education: 2009 to 2020 Increased access More accountability Greater transparency Cost containment

10. The Future of Higher Education

11. A Cautionary Tale Source: U.S. Department of Education, Projection of Education Statistics.

12. The Waning Boomlet Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door.

13. High School Graduates: Variability by State Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door. 2001 to 2009 and 2013 to 2021 Sustained loss (2)LA ND Gain, loss (10)AL AK CT IL MA MI NH NY OH RI Gain, flat (4)ME MD PA CA No change (8)DC HI IA MS SD VT WV WY Flat, gain (7)KS MN MT NE NM OK OR Sustained gain (20) AZ AR CO DE FL GA ID IN KY MO NV NC TX NJ SC TN UT VA WI WA

14. NY High School Graduates 2000 to 2020 Source: US Census Bureau

15. Traditional Redefined

16. The Old Nontraditional Student Percentage of Total Student Population Age 25 or Older Source: U.S. Department of Education, Digest of Education Statistics 2007.

17. The New Nontraditional Student Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study.

18. A New Market for Higher Education? The Boomers Retire Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

19. Where are the Guys?

20. Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income 2007-08 Lowest Quartile White42% African American 42% Hispanic41% Asian49% All Students42%

21. Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income 2007-08 Lowest Quartile Middle Quartile White42%46% African American 42%46% Hispanic41%42% Asian49%52% All Students42%46%

22. Percentage of Dependent Undergraduates Who Are Male, by Race/Ethnicity and income 2007-08 Lowest Quartile Middle Quartile Highest Quartile White42%46%50% African American 42%46%48% Hispanic41%42%48% Asian49%52%51% All Students42%46%50%

23. What’s Happened to the Guys? Source: King, Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage?

24. Another Look at the Gender Gap Source: ACE, Minorities in Higher Education 21 st Annual Status Report.

25. What’s Happened to the Guys? Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2014 31% growth 19% growth

26. Exploding Diversity

27. Diversity of High School Graduates Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking on the College Door.

28. Change in NY H.S. Graduates by Race and Gender Source: NYSED, ORIS 2009

29. Current Variation in K-12 Diversity Source: U.S. Department of Education, Common Core of Data 2006-07. Percentage “Minority” NortheastSouthMidwestWest 60 percent or more (5) DC HI, NM, CA, TX 40 to 59 percent (15) NY, DE, NJ MS, LA, MD, FL, GA, SC, NC, AL, VA IL AZ, NV, AK, OK 20 to 39 percent (16) CT, RI, MA, PA AR, TN MI, KS, MO, WI, OH, NE, MN, IN CO, WA, OR Less than 20 percent (15) NH, VT, MEKY, WVSD, ND, IA UT, MT, ID, WY

30. Cultural Diversity 16% 61% Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Postsecondary Education Statistics, Projection of Education Statistics to 2015

31. Cultural Diversity Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 2003-04.

32. Graduate and Professional School Enrollment by Race 1980 -2003 20% 219% -11% 207%

33. Major Field of Study: First Year Whites African Americans Hispanics Asian Americans Major %% Humanities 9.17.06.17.8 Social Sciences 6.05.76.13.7 STEM 13.817.113.018.9 Education 8.95.95.21.9 Business 11.716.511.813.1 Health 8.514.69.210.4 Technical/ Professional 8.610.4104.1 Undecided 3222.337.939.1

34. Major Field of Study: Third Year Whites African Americans Hispanics Asian Americans Major %% Humanities 14.610.111.310.1 Social Sciences 13.112.811.311.2 STEM 15.811.410.725.8 Education 9.87.67.54.0 Business 16.616.917.719.5 Health 7.110.15.97.0 Technical/ Professional 8.714.39.55.7 Undecided 14.316.92616.9

35. Who will teach?

36. Who Will Teach? Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

37. Faculty Retirements Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

38. Who Will Teach? Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

39. Who Will Teach? Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Survey of Postsecondary Faculty, 2003-04.

40. Who will lead?

41. Who Will Lead? Distribution of College Presidents by Race, 2006

42. Who Will Lead? Percent of Minority Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005

43. Senior Administrators No More Likely to be People of Color Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. 2008. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.

44. Who Will Lead? Distribution of College Presidents by Gender, 2005

45. Who Will Lead? Percent of Female Presidents by Institution Type, 1995 and 2005

46. And more likely to be women … Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Sources: ACE. 2007. The American College President: 2007 Edition. ACE. Forthcoming. On the Pathway to Presidency: Characteristics of Higher Education’s Senior Leadership.

47. Recapping the Trends Boomlet will wane nationally, with growth continuing in a few states A new kind of non-traditional student Boomer retirees a potentially huge market Huge educational strides by women Increasing racial and cultural diversity Major wave of faculty retirements

48. Center for Policy Analysis 202-939-9551 Bryan_cook@ace.nche.edu