Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Modern Bus Features: Trends and Future Prospects Cliff Henke Sr. Analyst, BRT and Small Starts PB TR&S, Inc. Modern Bus and new Technologies Seminar Sacramento,

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Modern Bus Features: Trends and Future Prospects Cliff Henke Sr. Analyst, BRT and Small Starts PB TR&S, Inc. Modern Bus and new Technologies Seminar Sacramento,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Modern Bus Features: Trends and Future Prospects Cliff Henke Sr. Analyst, BRT and Small Starts PB TR&S, Inc. Modern Bus and new Technologies Seminar Sacramento, CA June 2008 Cliff Henke Sr. Analyst, BRT and Small Starts PB TR&S, Inc. Modern Bus and new Technologies Seminar Sacramento, CA June 2008

2 Topics Today  Bus Technologies Overview  Factors Driving New Bus Technologies  Cost and Project Considerations  Bus Technologies Overview  Factors Driving New Bus Technologies  Cost and Project Considerations

3 USA Advanced Bus Designs

4 The European bus design challenge

5 High-Comfort, Amenities  Interior Finish  Large Windows  Luggage Racks  Information  Grab Bars  Interior Finish  Large Windows  Luggage Racks  Information  Grab Bars Rear Window? Multiple Doors Circulation Seat Comfort Fast Securement

6 North American Vehicles Now with Doors on Both Sides NABI 60-BRT hybrid demo New Flyer 60DELFBRT hybrid pilot bus for Cleveland

7 Las Vegas: Hotbed of New Bus Development  Driven by image and BRT needs

8 Los Angeles: Another Hotbed of New Bus Development  Driven by environmental and BRT needs

9 Range of BRT Vehicles, Costs New Flyer Invero i40 LF Irisbus Civis Standard Artic Stylized Artic Specialized Stylized Std New Flyer Hybrid Electric DE60LF NABI CompoBus 45 C LFW Gillig 40 LF NABI CNG 60 BRT

10 Range of BRT Vehicles, Costs ModelBody TypePropulsionCost (US$) 40-ft. low-floor StandardDiesel or CNG mech. $340,000- $380, ft. low-floor StylizedDiesel or CNG mech. $550,000- $720, ft. low-floor Standard artic Diesel or CNG mech. $480,000- $520, ft. low-floor StylizedDiesel or CNG mech. $650,000- $700, ft. low-floor StylizedHybrid$950,000 +

11 Onboard Technologies Critical to BRT, Further Local Bus Success BRT System Success Measures Speed & Capacity Drive System AmenitiesStyling Ridership Increase System Capacity, Travel Time Capital Savings, Operational Saving Boarding/Exit Time, Accessibility Bus Emissions, Noise Economic Development, Land Use Safety Perception, Cleanliness, Style

12 Integrated Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) Plan Washington Metro (WMATA)

13 Toyota IMTS – New Future Automated BRT System  IMTS – Intelligent Multimode Transit System:  Based on latest ITS tech  Debut at Expo 2005 in Japan  System developed by Toyota  Allows unmanned, automatic or platoon bus operation on dedicated roads  Controlled by magnetic markers imbedded in roads  Automatic speed regulation, braking functions via inter-vehicle & wayside wireless  IMTS – Intelligent Multimode Transit System:  Based on latest ITS tech  Debut at Expo 2005 in Japan  System developed by Toyota  Allows unmanned, automatic or platoon bus operation on dedicated roads  Controlled by magnetic markers imbedded in roads  Automatic speed regulation, braking functions via inter-vehicle & wayside wireless

14 Central Control Room Vehicle Location, Service Supervision Brisbane SE Busway

15 Passenger Information At Stations LA: Metro Rapid Bus On Board Paris: Val de Marne Busway

16 Other Info Technologies Also Have Income Streams  On-Board Wi-Fi (L.A., Miami, various European cities)  On-Board and Station Advertising with Next-Bus Info  “Transit TV”  On-Board Wi-Fi (L.A., Miami, various European cities)  On-Board and Station Advertising with Next-Bus Info  “Transit TV”

17 Hybrid will surpass CNG for BRT Propulsion  28% of total will be hybrids  One-third to be CNG (traditional drivetrain)  28% of total will be hybrids  One-third to be CNG (traditional drivetrain)

18 Recent Hybrid Transit Bus Orders CustomerQty. + Options Bus OEMHybrid System Yosemite NP18GilligAllison EP 50 SF Muni OrionBAE HybridDrive Chicago150 articsNew FlyerAllison EP 50 Montebello et als150 +New FlyerISE Siemens ELFA New York MTA850OrionBAE HybridDrive Cleveland21New FlyerAllison EP 50 Philadelphia (SEPTA) New FlyerAllison EP 50 Market Total (est.)1,658 + ~1,000+

19 Southern California Projected Gasoline-Hybrid Transit Bus Orders YearQty Yr. Market Total 271 —Source: SCAQMD, 2006

20 Hybrid LCC Payback Exercise  Total LCC Cost Difference Payback: Some say 7-8 Years  Payback On Local Match: Less than Six Years  Assumptions: 42,000 miles driven, 3.5 mpg diesel  If…  $150,000 incremental cost  50,000 miles per year  33% fuel economy improvement and $3/gal.  Then total cost payback is 14 years on fuel alone  Total LCC Cost Difference Payback: Some say 7-8 Years  Payback On Local Match: Less than Six Years  Assumptions: 42,000 miles driven, 3.5 mpg diesel  If…  $150,000 incremental cost  50,000 miles per year  33% fuel economy improvement and $3/gal.  Then total cost payback is 14 years on fuel alone Cost ItemTotalLocal Share Federal Share Marginal Cost (per bus) $175,000$35,000$140,000 Fuel Savings $2/gal., 20% $4000/yr.$4000N/A Maintenance Savings ?? N/A Other Savings ?? Total Savings$ Payback time>43 yrs.<6 yrs.N/A

21 Docking/ Narrow Lane Guidance for speed/consistency Precision Docking—Theory:  Speed, consistency can be improved  Consistent gap can speed boarding  Same high station/curb height eliminates ramp deploy dwell time  Enables rail-like ADA compliance?? In Practice:  Not proven in USA  Benefits, cost unclear Precision Docking—Theory:  Speed, consistency can be improved  Consistent gap can speed boarding  Same high station/curb height eliminates ramp deploy dwell time  Enables rail-like ADA compliance?? In Practice:  Not proven in USA  Benefits, cost unclear Guidance - high speed in narrow lanes –Shoulder lane ROWs; Narrow bridges; Queue jump lanes –Inclement weather operations –Could save in capital cost of projects

22 Types of Precision Docking/ Narrow Lane Guidance In Operation:  Mechanical –Rail (France) –Curb (UK, Australia)  Magnetic (Holland, USA) –FROG/PATH  Optical (France, USA) –Siemens Matra/Irisbus In Operation:  Mechanical –Rail (France) –Curb (UK, Australia)  Magnetic (Holland, USA) –FROG/PATH  Optical (France, USA) –Siemens Matra/Irisbus Mechanical Curb Electro-Magnetic PATH – MMRS & GS Optical

23 Pace of Technology’s Change The 1990s:  Multiple floor heights, lengths  Several fuels (and aftertreatments)  Multiple structures  Advanced electronics (multiplexing, AVL, voice annunciators, AVM, etc.) The 2000s:  Growing use of hybrids  Real-time video surveillance  Data logging and advanced diagnostics  Wi-Fi  BRT features The 1990s:  Multiple floor heights, lengths  Several fuels (and aftertreatments)  Multiple structures  Advanced electronics (multiplexing, AVL, voice annunciators, AVM, etc.) The 2000s:  Growing use of hybrids  Real-time video surveillance  Data logging and advanced diagnostics  Wi-Fi  BRT features I/O Controls’ multiplexing system

24 The Result: A “Build to Order” Market  Each order custom  Pilot bus  Wiring scheme different  Major components different (even allowed by SBPGs)  Time to market now 18 months—or less  Big reason why OEMs are financially fragile  Each order custom  Pilot bus  Wiring scheme different  Major components different (even allowed by SBPGs)  Time to market now 18 months—or less  Big reason why OEMs are financially fragile  “And now you want what?”

25 Cost of New Technology?

26 Viewed another way…

27 London Transport Bus (LTB): New Paradigm of Franchises  London Transport provides integrated service to customers  LTB is a logistics center that designs, tracks, and evaluates services on behalf of customers  The LTB has outsourced the task of providing modal capacity  LTB does not own any buses  LTB does not operate any mode!  LTB does franchise to private operators coordinated with rail, etc.  London Transport provides integrated service to customers  LTB is a logistics center that designs, tracks, and evaluates services on behalf of customers  The LTB has outsourced the task of providing modal capacity  LTB does not own any buses  LTB does not operate any mode!  LTB does franchise to private operators coordinated with rail, etc.

28 London Transport Bus: No Longer An Operator Mobility management for customers now strategic mission of London Bus

29 Findings of WestStart-CALSTART 2007 Phase II: BRT-Heavy Survey  Migration of Elements: BRT elements to “migrate” to regular bus systems, vice versa, including:  Real time passenger information  Vehicle location  Onboard surveillance  Longer vehicles  Branding/stylized vehicles  More buses/Increased frequency  Transit signal priority (TSP)  Opinion: BRT is part of the tide lifting all boats  Migration of Elements: BRT elements to “migrate” to regular bus systems, vice versa, including:  Real time passenger information  Vehicle location  Onboard surveillance  Longer vehicles  Branding/stylized vehicles  More buses/Increased frequency  Transit signal priority (TSP)  Opinion: BRT is part of the tide lifting all boats

30 Project Cities in Planning Phase --sources: Sen. Banking Committee, FTA, METRO Magazine

31 Conclusions  Technology Explosion Accelerating  Driven by BRT, image, environmental concerns  Cost-Effectiveness May Be A Concern, but…  New Technologies Enable New Revenues, Even New Model of Service  Technology Explosion Accelerating  Driven by BRT, image, environmental concerns  Cost-Effectiveness May Be A Concern, but…  New Technologies Enable New Revenues, Even New Model of Service

32 Questions? Thank you


Download ppt "Modern Bus Features: Trends and Future Prospects Cliff Henke Sr. Analyst, BRT and Small Starts PB TR&S, Inc. Modern Bus and new Technologies Seminar Sacramento,"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google