2Econ 5313The Hudsucker Proxy“Project Startup Decisions” from The Hudsucker ProxyStop at 5:00Look like the process at your company?The steps in a ‘rational’ product launch
3Econ 5313Time ValueIf I auctioned off a $1 today (standard auction – not ‘all pay’), how much would you be willing to pay?Darn close to $1If I auctioned off a $1 to be paid to you in a year, how much would you be willing to pay?Something less than the first auctionWhat does the difference represent?The cost to you of delayed gratificationIn general, this is the source of discounting future income flows
4Econ 5313The Discount RateOften the rate at which we discount the future is the same per period. We call this the discount rate or “r”. Formally, we discount some future value “X”:Xt = Xt+1/(1+r) for one year.Xt = Xt+2/(1+r)2 for two years.Xt = Xt+s/(1+r)s for “s” years.We can also take current values into the future. If we lend X to someone, how much do they have to pay in the future to make us indifferent?Xt+1 = Xt×(1+r) for one year.Xt+2 = Xt×(1+r)2 for two years.Xt+s = Xt×(1+r)s for “s” years.
5Valuing an Income Stream Econ 5313Valuing an Income StreamUsually, we are dealing with an investment cost today that will generate a flow of future benefits.We expect the investment will generate a stream of future benefits B1, B2, B3, … , BT. We want to compare that to current costs, C0.To do so, we need to calculate the present value of each benefit:PV1 = B1/(1+r) for one year.PV2 = B2/(1+r)2 for two years.PVT = BT/(1+r)T for “T” years.Now the sum of these is:PV = B1/(1+r) + B2/(1+r)2 + … + BT/(1+r)T.Xt+s = Xt×(1+r)s for “s” years.
6Econ 5313Investment CriterionNow we can compare the current costs with the present value of the benefits.If PV > C0 then the investment will return benefits greater than the costs. Fund it.Sometimes we rearrange to ask “PV - C0 > 0?” This is the “Net Present Value” or NPV.Possible complications?Do we know Bt into the future?Do we know r?Is r constant?Compound interest?
7Cost of Capital Where do companies’ interest rates come from? Econ 5313Cost of CapitalWhere do companies’ interest rates come from?What is the opportunity cost of these funds?Borrowing and other forgone investment opportunities. Finance department calculates a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).What are typical values?How often are these updated?
8Without Discounting Two very simple projects Econ 5313Without DiscountingTwo very simple projectsWhat is the sum of the benefits for project 1?What is the sum of the benefits for project 2?Which would you choose?C0B1B2Project 1$100$115$0Project 2$60
9With Disounting But if the WACC was 14% then present values are: Econ 5313With DisountingBut if the WACC was 14% then present values are:Why does the timing matter?C0B1B2PVProject 1$100$100.88$0.00Project 2$52.63$46.17$98.80
10Discounting and Price Changes Econ 5313Discounting and Price ChangesShould Prof. Ward’s new car be a V6 or a 4 cylinder?He likes the power of the V6 but they burn more gas making the operating costs higher. We need to be able to forecast the price of gasoline over the life of the new carLook ahead at the counter-party’s decision processOil companies are have potential barrels of oil in the ground and have decided on how much to pull out each year. If MC rises with current production, spread out production over time.So set MRt = MCt in each periodAcross periods?
11Discounting and Price Changes Econ 5313Discounting and Price ChangesThey should equate PV of profits from pulling a barrel out across periods. Why?(P1-MC1)/(1+r)1 = (P2-MC2)/(1+r)2 = (P3-MC3)/(1+r)3 = …Suppose they expect that (P7-MC7)/(1+r)7 is higher than other years. What can they do to increase profits?Shift more production toward this period until equal againOr, (Pt-MCt)/(1+r)t = (P0-MC0) for each period tSuppose MCt = 0 for all t. Then, Pt = P0(1+r)t or prices just rise with the interest rateAha, a price predictionDo we think MC of extracting oil and refining it into gasoline is falling or rising?
12Discounting and Price Changes Econ 5313Discounting and Price ChangesHistorically, inflation adjusted prices have been roughly constant, so if r > 0, MC must have been falling.Whoopee, I am getting a V6
13Other Investment Criteria Econ 5313Other Investment CriteriaNPV versus “internal rate of return” versus “payback period”What is “internal rate of return” IRR?Defined by asking “What r will make NPV = 0?”Decision is “Is this more than WACC?”Problems with IRR?What is payback period?Defined by asking “For how many periods do we have to go out for the sum of benefits to exceed costs?”Decision is “Is this less than the life of the project?”Problems with payback period?
14Econ 5313Break-Even AnalysisYou can print bootleg Cowboy's Tee-shirts and sell them on game day for $9. Your costs are $6 per unit with a setup cost of $600.How many do you have to sell to break even?You just break-even when profits are zero. So we need:Revenues = Costs$9×Q = $6×Q + $600$3×Q = $600Q = 200You just break-even when you sell 200 shirts.If you expect sales of >200 shirts, should you invest?
15Break-Even Quantities Econ 5313Break-Even QuantitiesGeneral formula is QBE = FC/(P-MC).Use this to see how the forecast for Q compares with QBE.If you do not expect to sell QBE units, don’t invest FC.Problems with Break-Even Analysis?If Q < QBE, tempted to raise price to get a smaller value.But usually the forecast for Q is based on the lower price.EX Chicago Skyway
16Alternative Investments Econ 5313Alternative InvestmentsIn 1983, John Deere was in the midst of building a Henry-Ford-style production line factory for large 4WD tractors. Unexpectedly, wheat prices fell dramatically reducing demand for large tractors. Deere’s competitor, Versatile, assembled tractors in a garage using off-the-shelf components. A discrete investment decision – the factory had big FC and small MC, Versatile had small FC but bigger MC.High Tech: Fixed Cost = $100K and MC = $10KLow Tech: Fixed Cost = $60K and MC = $15KWhich is cheaper?
17Alternative Investments Econ 5313Alternative InvestmentsEven if you do not know Q, you might be able to determine how big or small it would have to be to justify one decision or another
18Econ 5313Break-Even PricesA toy manufacturer introduced a successful new toy truck. It invested $2.5 million for a plastic injection molding machine (which can be sold for $2.0 million) and $100,000 in plastic injection molds specifically for the toy (not valuable to anyone else). Labor and the cost of materials for each truck are $3. This year, a competitor has developed a similar toy that has cut into demand. The manufacturer is deciding whether they should continue production of the toy truck.If the estimated demand is 100,000 trucks, what is the break-even price for the toy truck?At a price of $20, should you shut down?$100,000 is sunk but $2 million is avoidable and so relevant to this decision. Breakeven price is $3 + $2 million/100,000 = $23.
19Sunk versus Avoidable Costs Econ 5313Sunk versus Avoidable CostsFor shutdown decisions, it is important to only consider those costs that are marginal to the decision.Of course, marginal production costs are relevant.But the fixed costs can be divided into those that are sunk and those that are avoidable.Sunk costs are gone and are no longer relevant to decisions on how to operate into the future.But avoidable costs mean that you are foregoing some other opportunity. If you shut down the toy factory, you can redeploy the $2million elsewhere. The opportunity cost of the toy factory is a return on the $2million elsewhere. This factory has to make it worth your while to not redeploy the funds.$100,000 is sunk but $2 million is avoidable and so relevant to this decision. Breakeven price is $3 + $2 million/100,000 = $23.
20Econ 5313Hold-upNational Geographic can reduce costs by printing with regional printers. To print a high quality magazine, the printer must buy a $12 million printing press. Each magazine has a MC of $1 and the printer would print 12 million copies over two years. The break-even cost/average cost is $7 = ($12M / 2M copies) + $1/copy.The printer wins the contract with a bid slightly over $7/copy.After a year, National Geographic wants to renegotiate the terms down to $2/copy. What should the printer do?
21Econ 5313Hold-upThis is an example of the “hold-up problem” or “ex post opportunism.”It arises because some costs involved in a project are marginal before the contract but are sunk during the contract.These costs have to be “relationship specific” i.e., no scrap value.You have to anticipate holdup and protect yourself from it.How could the printer have protected himself?
22Econ 5313Bidding on ContractSuppose you work for an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) who makes component pieces for a telecommunications company. The telecom company asks you for a price quote for 2,000,000 units that will require a $1,000,000 investment with marginal costs of $1. What is your bottom line in negotiations with the telecom? Suppose you agree on a price slightly above your bottom line. Immediately after quoting this price to the telecom company, you receive a purchase order for one million units.What should you do?
23Econ 5313Solutions to HoldupIf possible, condition prices on quantities purchasedIf possible, protect yourself with a strong enough contractAlways some contract imperfectionSometimes, the only solution is to vertically integrate so that there is no conflictEx power companySometimes, there is no solution and value-creating relationship-specific investments cannot be madeIs marriage a “value creating relationship-specific investment?”
24Econ 5313Selling an IdeaFargoOnce the idea is revealed, can you negotiate over it?
25From the Blog Chapter 5 Health Investments Pension Investments Econ 5313From the BlogChapter 5Health InvestmentsPension InvestmentsPrices and R&DItalian Employment ProtectionChinese Divorces
26Econ 5313Main PointsInvestments usually involve cash flows at different times, i.e., costs first & revenues laterTo make them comparable, need to discount future values to the present valueCompanies’ discount rates are from cost-of-capitalNPV rule – economic profit if NPV > 0Compare IRR and payout periodBreakeven quantity is quantity needed for contribution margin to cover FCBreakeven price is average avoidable costs and excludes sunk costsThe different timing of costs and revenues leads to holdup5