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ENHANCING LIFE Fiber in the Access: A Game Changer Gamal Hegazi Founding board member, Chair Technology committee FTTH Council MENA ENHANCING LIFE Regional.

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Presentation on theme: "ENHANCING LIFE Fiber in the Access: A Game Changer Gamal Hegazi Founding board member, Chair Technology committee FTTH Council MENA ENHANCING LIFE Regional."— Presentation transcript:

1 ENHANCING LIFE Fiber in the Access: A Game Changer Gamal Hegazi Founding board member, Chair Technology committee FTTH Council MENA ENHANCING LIFE Regional Arab ITU 2012 Sharm, June, 2012

2 ENHANCING LIFE FTTH Council MENA is founded as non-profit organization in since 2011 with the mission to accelerate the FTTH deployment in Middle East and North Africa. Our members are from the main FTTH industry players of the region including Vendors, National and Private Networks, Governments, Service operators, Utilities. Since July 2011, 8 Platinum members, 4 Gold and 9 Silvers and 4 ongoing. The FTTH Council MENA ENHANCING LIFE

3 Devices 1.2 billion IP-enabled devices by 2014 Users 680M fixed BB users by 2015 Data and Video Explosion Sources: Bell Labs analysis 37% of internet traffic during primetime is online video Video ~ 70% of internet traffic by 2014 … DRIVING EXPONENTIAL INCREASE IN NETWORK CONSUMPTION xx 200720112015 300 600 Fix BB users [M]

4 ENHANCING LIFE Global Broadband penetration Studies showed that the current household Broadband penetration in the Middle East and Africa region is only 10% vs. the other regions. ENHANCING LIFE

5 Global FTTH/B Market ENHANCING LIFE From June 2010 …

6 ENHANCING LIFE Connected Experience… Connected Life… Connected Home… Transformation of society is happening Residential Customers Enterprise Customers Fiber-To-The-Office Enterprise rethink “converged” Fiber-To-The-Home Quality of Experience matters

7 ENHANCING LIFE FTTH Cloud Computing Telepresence : High quality video comms Intelligent Power Grid Virtual companies: on demand enterprises E- Governme nt Online Entertainmen t E- Education E-Health FTT H Benefits for Business and the Nation at large

8 ENHANCING LIFE FTTH 100+ Mbit, IP Phone IPTV & HD and 3D VoD Browsing Home Monitoring Enhanced Video- Communicatio ns (e.g. care for elderly people) Online Gaming no delays interactive environments virtual communities Benefits for the users and consumers

9 ENHANCING LIFE HSIVoIPOTTSDSD VoDHDHD VoD 3DTVFemto 20 Mb/s 50 Mb/s / sub ( 100 Mb/s peak) 20% CAGR expected bandwidth growth Sources: FTTH Council; Operators; Alcatel-Lucent Global peak and average bandwidth have demonstrated their ability to grow consistently. 100Mbps will eventually become commonplace. Expected continuous bandwidth growth

10 ENHANCING LIFE Various Architectures to reach the customers VDSL2 ~30 Mb/s ADSL2+ ~10-20 Mb/s VDSL2 ~30 Mb/s VDSL2 & vectoring ~50-100 Mb/s Mobile FTTN PON or P2P 100+ Mb/s CENTRAL OFFICE FTTB or FTTC VDSL2 vectoring ~100 Mb/s VDSL2 bonding ~60 Mb/s FTTH

11 ENHANCING LIFE FTTH is a broadband service enabler FTTH improves the way people live and work with symmetry and speed and interactivity Real speed Download of 6.5 Gbyte DVD-film: 10 Mbit/s DSL: 1.44 hours 100 Mbit/s FTTH: 8.6 min = INTERACTIVITY Symmetry Upload of 300 holiday-photos (700 Mbyte): 1 Mbit/s Upstream:92 minutes 10 Mbit/s Upstream:9 minutes 100 Mbit/s Upstream:56 seconds +

12 ENHANCING LIFE A New connected experience Connected Digital Home “Cloud” Internet Managed Multimedia Communication Web Applications Home Management FTTH Enable media sharing Enable bandwidth Enable applications Service Management Platform HDMHSMBCM Self Service Console Digital Life Console Customer Service Console Home View Aggregate content in an easy way Organize all your personal content Secure access to your personal content Share effortlessly Home Gateway Service Platform Service Platform APP 1APP 2APP 3APP 4 Home Control Provider Security Provider Utilities Provider Healthcare Provider device discovery sensor abstraction service creation SHDSL.bis GPON 0,512 4 8 10 24 100 > 1000 500 1 DL Speed [Mbps] 200020022004 2006 200820102012 GPRS UMTS 10G PON ADS L ADSL2 HSPA ADSL2+ LTE VDSL2 HSPA+ 10 24 100 500 >1000 2000 2012

13 ENHANCING LIFE Decision Criteria Flow Chart Designated Area (Available Power) Green Field Brown Field Dense FTTB Sub-Urban FTTH New Duct. New Civil Work. New Cabinet/Manhole Available Copper NO YES Reusable Copper FTTC/N YES Available Duct NO FTTB/H YES NO Copper Maintenance ALT-1 ALT-2 Alternate Network Overlay

14 ENHANCING LIFE The private players alone are not coping with the cost (pay back period?)… Note: 30% take rate Tier 1 citiesTier 2 & sub-UrbanRural Fiber drop Dark Fiber Trenching ducts Engineering Network HW Home HW Fiber drop Dark Fiber Trenching/ducts Engineering Network HW Home HW Fiber drop Dark Fiber Trenching/ducts OSP engineering Network HW Home HW FTTH CAPEX (€/subs) Pay back period ~4 years~8 years> 20 years Market DrivenPolicy DrivenRisk Driven FTTH Economics and Business Cases

15 ENHANCING LIFE Fraction public to private investment Socio-economic impact of fiber High Low Market DrivenPolicy DrivenRisk Driven Services Active Passive Public € Private € 0 % 100 % Socio-economic impactLow/MediumMediumHigh Investor Payback Time~5 year~10 year~20 year Public Sector Intervention Access to infra, RoW, in-house labeling.. Ducts, sewers, dark fiber. Active? Passive, active. Utility services? FTTH ECONOMICS: Public-Private GEOGRAPHICAL SEGMENTATION

16 ENHANCING LIFE MENA FTTH Homes Passed indicators Country20102011Y-o-Y Growth The Gulf Countries: Bahrain7.910.1 27% Kuwait65.080.7 24% Oman7.710.1 31% Qatar13.377.7 486% Saudi Arabia29.5115.2 290% UAE985.71,186.8 20% African Countries: Algeria3.020.0 567% Egypt55.357.3 4% Morocco0.1 67% South Africa19.523.8 22% Tunisia3.25.0 56% The Levant Countries: Iran0.0 0% Iraq2.58.0 220% Jordan2.02.6 32% Lebanon4.75.0 6% Syria0.81.2 50% Overall1,200.21,603.7 34% NUMBER OF HOMES PASSED BY FTTH/B, 2010-2011 (000) Source: Pyramid Research, based on operator data ENHANCING LIFE

17 Opportunities: FTTH Homes subscribed 32% average take rate COUNTRIES NUMBER OF HOMES PASSED BY FTTH/B 2011 FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS 2011 (000) TAKE RATE UAE1,186.80445.2 38% Saudi Arabia 115.235.4 31% Kuwait80.75.4 7% Qatar77.76.1 8% Egypt57.34.9 9% Algeria200.6 3% Bahrain10.13.1 31% Oman10.11.6 16% Iraq80.6 8% Tunisia51 20% Lebanon50.5 10% Jordan2.60.6 23% Syria1.20.4 33% Morocco0.1 100%

18 ENHANCING LIFE 70% FTTB 30% FTTH Main architecture deployed Dwellings deployed 30% SDU 70% MDU Source: FTTH Council MENA dynamics

19 ENHANCING LIFE FTTH BUSINESS MODELS ALONG THE 3 LAYERS Network Operator Infrastructure Owner Full separation Vertically Integrated Service Active Passive Retail Service Provider Infrastructure Owner Passive Sharing Active Sharing Retail Service Provider Vertical Infrastructure Provider Vertically Integrated Operator Vertical Service Provider Competition Infrastructure Competition Service Competition Regulated passive wholesale Regulated active wholesale Regulated passive & active wholesale Access to public infrastructure Regulation

20 ENHANCING LIFE FTTH a key economic driver FTTH is a critical driver for the knowledge economy –Deployment of FTTH creates jobs –New services create GDP growth, not only from ICT industry (entertainment industry etc.) FTTH creates business opportunities & competitiveness –Operators: increased ARPU (30%!), lower churn-rate, OPEX savings –Businesses: new ways of working, reduced travel & office rental costs, better time management, more innovation, better competitiveness –Regions/Municipalities: retain and attract more businesses & investment, offer cost-efficient services to the community, increase local competitiveness

21 ENHANCING LIFE After Jordan 2009, Lebanon 2010, Egypt 2011... Qatar in December 2012!


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