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1 Planetary Defense Activities at NASA Science Mission Directorate Lindley Johnson NEO Program Executive, NASA HQ Aug 23 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Planetary Defense Activities at NASA Science Mission Directorate Lindley Johnson NEO Program Executive, NASA HQ Aug 23 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Planetary Defense Activities at NASA Science Mission Directorate Lindley Johnson NEO Program Executive, NASA HQ Aug 23 2011

2 2 Current United States Government Policies and Activities Regarding Planetary Defense Lindley Johnson NEO Program Executive, NASA HQ May 2011

3 Source US Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Letter to Congress dated 15 October, 2010* Response to Section 804 of NASA Authorization Act of 2008 The Director of OSTP will: (1)develop a policy for notifying Federal agencies and relevant emergency response institutions of an impending near-Earth object threat, if near-term public safety is at risk; and (2)recommend a Federal agency or agencies to be responsible for – (A) protecting the United States from a near-Earth object that is expected to collide with Earth; and (B) implementing a deflection campaign, in consultation with international bodies, should one be necessary * 3

4 Background US National Space Policy, June 28, 2010* NASA shall: “Pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize near-Earth objects to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet and to identify potentially resource-rich planetary objects.” * US President’s FY2012 NASA Budget Request: “The expanded Near-Earth Orbit Observation (NEOO) program [$20.4M] will improve and increase its efforts to detect Earth approaching asteroids and comets that may provide resources for our exploration of the inner solar system, or could become potential impact hazards to the Earth. It will also expand efforts to characterize their nature, both to better understand their composition and provide information for study of potential hazard mitigation techniques.” US President’s new plan for human space flight, announced April 15, 2010*, establishes the goal of conducting a human mission to an NEO by 2025 * 4

5 NEO Threat Detection Within US Government: NASA will coordinate NEO detection and threat information from all organizations within the NEO observation community NASA has instituted communications procedures, including direction with regard to public release of information NASA notification procedures are set into motion only after the necessary observations, analyses, and characterization efforts have taken place to determine that a space object indeed represents a credible threat –Depends on level of risk and urgency, may unfold for years after detection –Will entail various combinations of: Increased monitoring Cross-checks of potentially hazardous trajectories as needed Accelerated observations and orbit determination if potential hazard is near term 5

6 US component to International Spaceguard Survey effort Has provided >98% of new detections of NEOs Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May, 1998 –Averaged ~$4M/year R&A funding since 2002 –Budget increase submitted for FY2012 Scientific Objective: Discover 90% of NEOs larger than 1 kilometer in size within 10 years (1998 – 2008) NASA Authorization Act of 2005 provided additional direction (but no additional funding) for “George E. Brown (GEB) Survey” “… plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020]. NEO Observation Program 6

7 NASA’s NEO Search Program (Current Systems) LINEAR MIT/LL Soccoro, NM Catalina Sky SurveyUofAZ Arizona & Australia Minor Planet Center (MPC) IAU sanctioned Int’l observation database Initial orbit determination NEO Program Office @ JPL Program coordination Precision orbit determination Automated SENTRY Pan-STARRS-1 Uof HI Haleakula, Maui NEO-WISEJPL Sun-synch LEO 7 Reached End of Mission 1 Feb 2011

8 NEO-WISE Detections 8 This figure shows a top-down view of the objects detected by NEOWISE as of February 2011 (distances are given in AU). The outermost circle represents Jupiter's orbit; the interior circles represent the terrestrial planet orbits. Previously known NEOs are shown as green dots; new NEOs discovered by NEOWISE are shown as red dots; previously known comets observed by WISE are shown as cyan squares, and comets discovered by NEOWISE are shown as yellow squares. All other objects, mostly main belt asteroids, are shown as black points.

9 NEO Detection (as of 01 Aug ‘11) 9 PHA= Potentially Hazardous Asteroid

10 Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (Harris 2006) Numbers (powers of 10) 0.01 0.1 1 10 Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity Hiroshima Protected by Earth’s Atmosphere 10 Assumes average albedo of 0.14

11 Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (Harris 2006) 140 m 50 m 1 km ~250,000 ~20,000 ~ 1,000 Numbers (powers of 10) 0.01 0.1 1 10 Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity Hiroshima Protected by Earth’s Atmosphere 11 Assumes average albedo of 0.14

12 NEO Detection 12 ~90% ~45% ~10% ~1% <<1% Breakup Damage

13 NEO-WISE Detections 13 2010 TK7 – First Earth Trojan Asteroid Discovered in NEO-WISE Collected Data Continuing to mine NEO-WISE Data for Knowledge of NEOs

14 Close Approaches 14 Close Approach of 2011 MD (~10 meters size) at 7,600 miles (~2 Earth radii)

15 ObjectClose-Approach Date Close-Approach Date (TDB) YYYY-mmm-DD HH:MM ± D_HH:MM Miss Distance NominalMiss Distance Nominal (LD/AU) Miss Distance Minimum Miss Distance Minimum (LD/AU) V relative V relative (km/s) V infinity V infinity (km/s) N sigma H (mag) (2011 CQ1)2011-Feb-04 19:38 ± < 00:010.03/0.00008 9.695.174.1e+0332.0 (2011 MD)2011-Jun-27 17:00 ± < 00:010.05/0.00012 6.701.486.93e+0528.1 (2010 WA)2010-Nov-17 03:44 ± < 00:010.1/0.0003 13.0712.261.82e+0330.0 (2011 CF22)2011-Feb-06 11:40 ± 01:140.1/0.00030.09/0.0002319.6119.1020.730.9 (2010 TD54)2010-Oct-12 10:49 ± < 00:010.1/0.0003 17.5417.094.4e+0328.8 (2010 XB)2010-Nov-30 18:05 ± < 00:010.1/0.0004 19.9419.551.11e+0329.6 (2010 RK53)2010-Sep-08 23:58 ± 00:010.2/0.0005 8.818.1631227.9 (2010 RF12)2010-Sep-08 21:12 ± < 00:010.2/0.0005 (2010 VP139)2010-Nov-12 02:36 ± 1_10:510.2/0.00050.02/0.000069.448.893.5929.2 (2011 GP28)2011-Apr-06 19:36 ± 00:040.2/0.0006 14.8214.5368329.4 (2011 CA7)2011-Feb-09 19:28 ± 00:020.3/0.0007 9.338.9034030.3 (2010 UE)2010-Oct-16 10:20 ± 00:260.3/0.00080.3/0.000717.4017.2060.829.6 (2011 AM37)2011-Jan-11 11:46 ± 00:040.3/0.0009 4.413.6538629.7 (2011 BW11)2011-Jan-25 06:33 ± < 00:010.3/0.0009 23.9523.8255128.3 (2010 VN1)2010-Nov-02 18:05 ± < 00:010.3/0.0009 11.2911.0183328.3 (2011 EY11)2011-Mar-07 03:26 ± < 00:010.3/0.0009 11.8611.605e+0328.6 (2010 TW54)2010-Oct-09 00:40 ± < 00:010.4/0.0011 8.077.761.24e+0327.5 (2011 OD18)2011-Jul-28 06:38 ± 10:340.5/0.00120.3/0.00099.279.0218.226.3 (2010 XR)2010-Nov-29 22:04 ± 01:180.5/0.00130.4/0.001119.6019.4920.226.9 (2011 GW9)2011-Apr-06 04:53 ± < 00:010.5/0.0013 11.3611.181.32e+0328.1 (2011 EM40)2011-Mar-08 04:05 ± < 00:010.6/0.0016 10.7910.6328628.0 (2010 UY7)2010-Oct-26 17:10 ± < 00:010.6/0.0016 4.263.8594628.5 (2011 CA4)2011-Jan-31 04:09 ± 00:030.6/0.00170.6/0.00166.005.7350727.0 (2010 RX30)2010-Sep-08 09:51 ± < 00:010.6/0.0017 10.009.834.84e+0327.2 (2011 EN11)2011-Mar-03 08:46 ± < 00:010.6/0.0017 11.2011.061.18e+0327.9 (2010 SK13)2010-Sep-30 15:59 ± < 00:010.7/0.0018 18.6318.552.32e+0327.3 (2010 UJ7)2010-Nov-02 02:36 ± < 00:010.7/0.0019 9.389.234.02e+0325.6 (2011 DU9)2011-Feb-23 19:03 ± < 00:010.7/0.0019 8.928.7780126.7 (2010 VC140)2010-Nov-13 14:11 ± < 00:010.8/0.0019 4.834.541.01e+0327.9 (2011 AN52)2011-Jan-17 23:19 ± < 00:010.8/0.0021 15.9315.8550428.5 (2011 EB74)2011-Mar-16 21:49 ± 01:090.9/0.00220.6/0.00147.697.5318126.9 (2010 TN55)2010-Oct-11 01:10 ± 00:020.9/0.00220.8/0.002225.4525.4018727.0 (2009 BD)2011-Jun-02 00:51 ± < 00:010.9/0.0023 1.911.151.14e+0628.3 (2011 JV10)2011-May-05 17:13 ± 00:010.9/0.0023 5.345.1237029.7 (2010 VR21)2010-Nov-07 23:11 ± < 00:010.9/0.0024 14.2614.1828829.3 (2011 BY10)2011-Jan-20 08:28 ± 00:010.9/0.0024 7.847.6943427.3 (2010 TE55)2010-Oct-17 01:26 ± < 00:011.0/0.0024 3.403.071.87e+0428.0 15 NEO Threat Detection 37 Close Approaches within Lunar Orbit Last 12 Months

16 Spaceguard Survey New Object Notification Current Spaceguard Survey Infrastructure and Process Survey, Detect, & Report Correlate, Determine Rough Orbit Possible New PHO? Routine Processing Publish Results Yes Possible Impact? Resolve Result Differences Publish Results No Precision Orbit and Follow Up Observations Impact Still Possible? Observations and Update Orbit Publish/ Update Results No Yes Iterate Survey Systems Minor Planet Center JPL NEO Office* * In parallel with NEODyS Radar Alerts MPC PHO of interest MPC possible close approach JPL reports possible impact to NASA/HQ JPL publishes probability of impact 16

17 NEO Threat Notification Upon notification from NASA: Of impending NEO Threat to United States territory: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) takes lead to notify appropriate Federal, state and local authorities and emergency response institutions utilizing existing resources and mechanisms –When time/location of affected areas known, activate National Warning System –Analogous to large re-entering space debris and/or hurricane warning procedures –Post-impact event, analogous to other disaster emergency and relief efforts Of NEO Threat beyond United States territory: Recognizing vital role US efforts lead in NEO detection activities, US Department of State facilitates international notifications in effort to minimize loss of human life and property –Bilaterally through diplomatic channels to potentially affected countries –To member nations of multilateral forums – UN entities (OOSA, COPUOS), NATO, etc –Post-impact event, convey offers of disaster relief and technical assistance 17

18 2005 YU55 to Approach Earth Nov. 8, 2011 C-type asteroid Diameter ~400 meters Earth & Moon close approach Extensive radar, visual and infrared observations are being planned.

19 Future Survey Capabilities 19

20 Large Synoptic Survey Telescope 6.4-m effective diameter 10 sq deg field of view ugrizy optical filters 18,000 square degrees ++ 2x15s exposures + 2 more within 60 minutes Survey entire visible sky every 3-4 days in 2 filters for 10 years 20

21 LSST Survey for NEOs LSST Project modeling: Assumes H=22 at D=140m Uses model PHA population Uses LSST Operations Simulation (historical weather, seeing conditions, telescope properties) Simulate ‘observations’; require suitable for detection in MOPS 10 years ~80% In 10 years, normal cadence: LSST is ~80% complete at 140m 12 years 90% In 12 years, NEO optimized: LSST reached ~90% complete D=140m 15% dedicated to NEO survey Normal Cadence “NEO Optimized” Cadence 21

22 Space SurveillanceTelescope 22 DARPA funded project Designed and built by MIT/LL Same division as LINEAR Located Atom Peak, WSMR, NM 3.6 meter primary mirror First Light was Feb 2011 Started 1 year of checkout Eventual operations by AFSPC First of 3 to 4 worldwide sites Serendipitous detection of NEOs in background mode to space surveillance

23 “NEOStar” Concept Spitzer Kepler “NEOStar” X ≈ 23

24 Potential NEO Mitigation/Deflection Essential first step is continued enhancement of efforts to detect NEOs –Identify potential impact hazards early –Provide as much advanced warning of impact threat to enable more mitigation options Potential roles and responsibilities for mitigation options are in early stages of development and not yet ready for implementation –Wide range of possible scenarios and challenges involved –Significantly more analysis and simulation needed to understand feasibility and effectiveness of several approaches, and technical assessment of current technologies NASA to take lead to conduct foundational analysis and simulation, assessment of applicable technologies –Close coordination with DOD, FEMA, and other relevant departments and agencies –Possible simulated emergency response exercises to be led by FEMA –Outreach to relevant private-sector stakeholders to leverage related work –Important to engage other nations and multilateral forums to explore opportunities for international cooperation, e.g. UNCOPUOS, European Union, ISECG 24

25 Efforts in Mitigation/Deflection Research 25 NASA Office of Chief Technologist –OCT Space Technology Grand Challenges Open call for cutting-edge technological solutions that solve important space- related problems, radically improve existing capabilities or deliver new space capabilities altogether 1 of 12 areas of research: Near-Earth Object Detection and Mitigation: Develop capabilities to detect and mitigate the risk of space objects that pose a catastrophic threat to Earth.

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