Presentation on theme: "Part of "Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable", funded by BMZ Presented by P. Zhou, T."— Presentation transcript:
Part of "Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable", funded by BMZ Presented by P. Zhou, T. Simbini and G, Ramokgotlwane EECG
EECG PROFILE MOSTLY WORKING IN ENERGY AND ENVIORNMENT INCLDUING CLIMATE CHANGE. SINCE 1993. FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WORK IN ALL ASPECTS- EMISSIONS, IMPACTS AND MITIGATION WE SUPPORT NATIONAL CC ACTIVITIES- E.G. FIRST NATIONAL COMMUNICATION. ON IMPACTS DID THE WATER SECTOR MANAGED AND PARTICIPATED IN REGION CC PROJECTS- E.G. ESKOM CC RESEARCH PROGRAMME, CARBON PROJECT DEVELOPMENT AND MITIGATION MLODELLING IN OTHER AFRICAN COUNTRIES NOW HELPING MOZAMBIQUE DEVLOP THEIR CC MAINSTREAMING AND CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAMME WE ARE SMALL BUT SURVIVE ON PARTNERSHIPS WITH OTHER REGIONAL CENTRES AND ASSOCIATE CONSULTANTS CORE PRODUCERS OF THE REPORT TICH SIMBINI AND GORATA RAMOKGOTLWANE AND TS WILL MAKE THE PRESENTATION ACKNWOLEDGE UPFRONT THE INPUTS MADE BY IFPRI-WHO MADE ALL THE MODELLING RESULTS
Project Background Objectives Review of Current Situation and trends Review of Land Use, Potential, and Limitations Institutional Policy, Programs and Strategies Scenarios for the Future Agricultural Outcomes Conclusions
This study is part of a Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) project commissioned by the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
To assess the region’s vulnerability of Agriculture to climate change with special emphasis being placed on the poor.
Variable1984/851993/942002/03 1. Poverty rate (as % of indiv. population) 59 46.730.3 2. Income distribution: national Gini coefficient disposable income 0.5560.5370.573 3. Livestock ownership % of households without cattle50.254.662.5 % of households without goats46.963.0 % of households without sheep92.3 % of households without chicken59.1
CropsYearRequirementsProduction (mt) Deficit Maize2001/02124 00017 412-106 588 2002/03131 0001 633-129 367 2003/04125 0006 220-118 780 2004/05141 0002 586-138 414 2005/06140 00010 467-129 533 2006/07144 000751-143 249 Sorghum/millet2001/0262 00031 625-30 375 2002/0355 00054 362-638 2003/0465 00035 134-29 866 2004/0564 00021 164-42 836 2005/0660 00025 604-34 396 2006/0757 00026 193-30 807 Botswana has average deficit of 99% for maize and 46% sorghum for the period under review (i.e. 2001-2007) FAO reports that daily average kilocalories per capita in Botswana decreased from 2260 in 1990/92 to 2180 in 2001/03
Mainstay of the rural population, which makes up about 42.6% of Botswana’s population 85% of national herd grazed in communal lands and is hampered by a shortage of water Cattle production is the only source of agricultural exports in Botswana Average beef production has been declining and targets that were set in NDP9 were not met Being hampered by the lack of quality breeding stock, lack of infrastructure in production areas, poor livestock husbandry and diseases
MoA attribute this fall to outbreaks of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and that 10% of carcasses from BMC are affected with Bovine measles Item2001200220032004200520062007 Chilled meat8 1184,7815,3764,6924,1982,9861,119 Frozen Meat8 1105,0103,8255,4333,3753,1405,336 Total Exports16 2289,791920110,1257,5736,1266,455 Export Quota18 91618,916 Quota fulfillment 86%52%49%54%40%32%34%
Small stock production but plays and important socio-economic role in the lives of the rural poor as a source of food and income (mostly to female headed households) national small stock population showing a decreasing trend mostly due to poor management and disease and parasite infestation. high mortality rate for small stock during wet years because of high incidence of disease compared to dry years. E.g heartwater disease case in the eastern part of the country. heartwater disease in also being observed in areas that used to be designated as heartwater disease free areas. Botswana has for the first time in history had an outbreak of the Rift-Valley Fever in the Kanye and Ramotswa area.
Institutional Policy, Programs and Strategies Institutional Policy, Programs and Strategies that were reviewed include Vision 2016 NDP 9 Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agriculture Development (ISPAAD) Livestock Management and Infrastructure Development Programme Phase1 (LIMID) National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy Development (NAMPAADD) Gender Policy Botswana’s Agricultural Policy: Critical Sectoral Issues and Future Strategy for Development Diseases of Animal Act 1977 Revised National Food Strategy Programs in Support of Public Goods (Rural Infrastructure, Agricultural Research)
Scenarios for the Future Changes in mean annual precipitation for SSA and Botswana between 2000 and 2050 Changes in normal annual maximum temperature for Botswana between 2000 and 2050 Yield change map under climate change: rainfed maize in Botswana Yield change map under climate change: rainfed sorghum in Botswana
Figure 1. Maps showing changes in mean annual precipitation for Sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2050 using the A1B scenario CNRM-CM3 GCM CSIRO-MK3 GCM ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2 While consequences of CC are becoming increasingly well known, greater uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will play out in specific locations GCMs illustrate the range of potential climate outcomes
MAIZE CHANGESDISTRICTSCOMMENTS OPTIMISTICGreater than 25%NE+PandamatengaAll GCMs 5 to 25%kweneng, Kgaltleng3 of 4 GCMs mixedKgalagadi All GCMs- dont agree PESSIMISTIC-5 to -25%Kweneng and SEall GCMS SORGHUM CHANGESDISTRICTSCOMMENTS OPTIMISTICupto 25% Central, Kweneng, Kgatleng,Southern, SE2 of 4 GCMs -5 to -25% Ghanzi, Ngamiland, half of Centralall GCMS mixedKgalagadi2 of 4 GCMs PESSIMISTIC general loss of yields Across the country
Agricultural Outcomes Impact of changes in GDP and population on maize in Botswana
Agricultural Outcomes Impact of changes in GDP and population on sorghum in Botswana
Conclusions Botswana’s semi-arid climate severely already limits the country’s food production capacity before impacts of climate change 5% is suitable for cultivation and less than 1% is being cultivated mostly in the eastern parts of the country Agriculture contribution to GDP reduced from 40% at independence in 1966 to just over 1% at present Agriculture still remains the mainstay of the rural economy, which is made up of 41.4% of the country’s households and offers employment to 30% of the country’s employable population
Conclusions communal farmers cultivate 80% total planted area in the country but produce 38% of the country’s total harvest Beef production is the only agriculture export earner in Botswana and is dominated by communal farmers who possess about 85% of the national herd There is currently no policy in Botswana, which caters for the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change The current policy framework has taken into consideration the drought prone climate of Botswana
Conclusions Change in precipitation Most optimistic scenario:- change between -50 to -200mm in different parts of the country Most probable scenario:- changes of between -50 to 50mm in most of the country Temperature projected to rise by between 1 to 3.5 o C across the country Maize and sorghum yields, projected to increase as the farming methods improve and better hybrid seeds are produced thus resulting in increased production for both crops. However the increased local production will not be sufficient to satisfy the local demand Communal farmers are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than commercial farmers
RECOMMENDATIONS HERE ONLY VULNERABILITY-NO ADAPTATION MEASURES EVEN ON VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT- NOT A ONCE OFF EXERCISE-NEED CONTINUED ASSESSMENTS TO GAIN BETTERUNDERSTANDING OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS (E.G. ON LIVELIHOODS) AND HOW TO PREPARE FOR THEM. IDENTIFY MODELS THAT BEST SUITE BOTSWANA IDENTIFY IMPORTANT INPUTS INTO PLANNING PROCESSES ON ADAPTATION OPTIONS MAP ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND COSTING THE STRATEGIES
RECOMMENDATIONS CONTD BUILD NECESSARY CAPACITY FOR MODELLING LEARN FROM GOOD PRACTICES AND BAD PRACTICES- THINKING COST BENEFIT UPSCALING OF HOPEFUL PILOT STRATEGIES REVISION OF POLICIES/PLANS/STRAGEIES/PROGRAMMES TO INCORPORATE CC. MAINSTREAMING CC INTO DEVELOPMENT FORUM OF INFORMATION SHARING M&E FRAMEWORK