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Presentation on theme: "METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS, PREPAREDNESS, MONITORING,"— Presentation transcript:

With Special Reference to DROUGHTS Y.K. REDDY Director Meteorological Centre, HYDERABAD

2 INTRODUCTION A Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a society, causing widespread human, property or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using only its own resources. Natural Disasters that commonly affect Indian Areas are: TROPICAL CYCLONES; - affect Agriculture Sector EARTH QUAKES; TSUNAMIS; - affect Agriculture Sector FLOODS; - affect Agriculture Sector DROUGHTS; - affect Agriculture Sector

3 Favourable conditions for a Cyclonic Storm
TROPICAL CYCLONES Favourable conditions for a Cyclonic Storm Pre existing area of disturbed weather Sea surface temperatures greater than 80˚ Fahrenheit/26.5 ˚ Centigrade Warm ocean water must be at least 200 feet deep (waves can’t bring up cold water) Absence of wind shear Not closer than 5˚ latitude from Equator CYCLONE SEASONS (For Indian Seas) Pre-Monsoon Cyclone Season : March to May Post Monsoon Cyclone Season : October to December

4 Dimentions of Tropical Cyclones
Size Speed of Movement Large ( km dia) kmph (Slow) Medium ( km dia) kmph (Moderate) Small (<300km dia) >25 kmph (Fast)

One of the most important functions of IMD A constant watch is kept on the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal for the likely genesis of tropical cyclones with the help of satellite imagery. Data from ships and ocean buoys is also very valuable. When the systems come nearer to the Indian coastline, their subsequent development and movement is monitored by a chain of Cyclone Detection Radars. The likely movement of the storms is predicted with the help of track prediction models(Computer Programs) and by reference to past climatology which has been built up using 125 years of cyclone data.

6 Potential Impact upon Landfall of a Tropical Cyclone
Wind Effect of local Tides Effect of local Coastal Configuration Low Atmospheric Pressure in the Centre Rain Storm Surge Flooding Loss of Human Life: Injuries Damage to structures & Continent Flooding of Low-Lying Coastal Areas Erosion of Beaches Damage to onshore & offshore installations Damage to Shipping & Fishing Facilities Loss of Communications & Power Urban Bushfire Loss of Soil Fertility from Saline Intrusion Land Subsidence Contamination of Domestic Water Supply Destruction of Vegetation, Crops, Livestock

7 Impact of TS: Storm Surge
A Storm Surge is an abnormal rise of sea level caused by a cyclone moving over a continental shelf

8 in a Cyclone Wind Distribution
Band of Maximum winds would be 20 – 50 Km from the Center. (Variablility: 10 – 150 Km) In this belt, Speed decreases rapidly towards eye. But decreases slowly and in an irregular fashion outward from eye. The highest wind will be in the northeast sector.

9 Rainfall Distribution
in a Tropical Cyclone Extensive Rainfall In the Right forward sector in Recurving to East/NE In the left forward sector in westerly moving In the forward sector in north moving Intensive Rainfall Occurs to the left of the cyclone Slow moving/Big size cyclones give more rainfall whereas fast moving/small size ones give less rainfall Intensity and Area of Rainfall depends on: Intensity and size of Storm Speed of the storm Orography of Land/Orientation of Coast Direction of movement of Storm Rate of ascent of air in the storm circulation Temperature & Lapse Rate in the System Continuous moisture feed even over the land into the system RESULT : FLASH FOODS IN LOW LYING AREAS, BREACHES OF RIVERS, INUNDATION OF VILLAGES, STANDING CROPS ETC.

10 Impact of Cyclonic Storms and Suggested Mitigation Actions
Category / T.No. / Wind Speed Structures Communication & power Road/Rail Agriculture Marine Interests Coastal Zone Overall Damage Category Suggested Actions Deep Depression T2.0 28-33 Knots Kmph Minor damage to loose/ unsecured structures Minor Some breaches in Kutcha road due to flooding Minor damage to Banana trees and near coastal agriculture due to salt spray. Damage to ripe paddy crops Very rough seas. Sea waves about 4-6 m high. Minor damage to Kutcha embankments Fishermen advised not to venture into sea. Cyclonic Storm T2.5-T3.0 34-47 Knots Kmph Damage to thatched huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to breaking of tree branches. Major damage to Kutcha and minor damage to Pucca roads. Some damage to paddy crops, Banana, Papaya trees and orchards. High to very high sea waves about 6-9 m high. Sea water inundation in low lying areas after erosion of Kutcha embankments Minor to Moderate

11 Impact of Cyclonic Storms and Suggested Mitigation Actions
Category / T.No. / Wind Speed Structures Communication & power Road/Rail Agriculture Marine Interests Coastal Zone Overall Damage Category Suggested Actions Severe Cyclonic Storm T3.5 48-63 Knots Kmph Major damage to thatched houses / huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly. Minor damage to power and communication lines. Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to Banana and Papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees. Phenomenal seas with wave height 9-14 m. Movement in motor boats unsafe. Major damage to coastal crops. Storm surge upto 1.5m (area specific) causing damage to embankments/ salt pans. Inundation upto 5 Km in specific areas. Moderate Fishermen advised not to venture into sea. Coastal hutment dwellers advised to move to safer places. Other people in the affected areas to remain indoors.

12 Impact of Cyclonic Storms and Suggested Mitigation Actions
Category / T.No. / Wind Speed Structures Communication & power Road/Rail Agriculture Marine Interests Coastal Zone Overall Damage Category Suggested Actions (a) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm T4.0-T4.5 64-90 Knots Kmph Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to Kutcha houses. Some damage to Pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects. Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles. Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems. Widespread damage to standing crops plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds Blowing down bushy trees like mango. Phenomenal seas with wave heights more than 14m. Visibility severely affected. Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe. Storm surge up to 2 m, Inundation up to 10 Km in specific areas. Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings. Large Fishermen not to venture into sea. Evacuation from coastal areas needs to be mobilized. People advised to remain indoors. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic needed.

13 Impact of Cyclonic Storms and Suggested Mitigation Actions
Category / T.No. / Wind Speed Structures Communication & power Road/Rail Agriculture Marine Interests Coastal Zone Overall Damage Category Suggested Actions (b) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm T5.0-T6.0 Knots Kmph Extensive damage to all types Kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. Potential threat from flying objects. Extensive uprooting of power and communication poles. Disruption of rail / road link at several places. Extensive damage to standing crops plantations, orchards. Blowing down of Palm and Coconut trees. Uprooting of large bushy trees. Phenomenal seas with wave heights more than 14m. Movement in motor boats and small ships not advisable. Storm surge up to 2 – 5 m, Inundation may extend up to Km over specific areas. Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings, country crafts may get detached from moorings. Extensive Fishermen not to venture into sea. Evacuation from coastal areas essential. Diversion / suspension of rail traffic may be required.

14 Impact of Cyclonic Storms and Suggested Mitigation Actions
Category / T.No. / Wind Speed Structures Communication & power Road/Rail Agriculture Marine Interests Coastal Zone Overall Damage Category Suggested Actions Super Cyclonic Storm T6.5 and above 120 Knots and above 222 Kmph Extensive damage to non concrete residential and industrial building. Structural damage to concrete structures. Air full of large projectiles. Uprooting of power and communication poles. Total disruption of communication and power supply. Extensive damage to Kutcha roads and some damage to poorly repaired pucca roads. Large scale submerging of coastal roads due to flooding and sea water inundation. Total disruption of railway and road traffic due to major damages to bridges, signals and railway tracks. Washing away of rail / road links at several places. Total destruction of standing crops / orchards, uprooting of large trees and blowing away of palm and coconut crowns, stripping of tree barks. Phenomenal seas with wave heights more than 14m. All shipping activity unsafe. Extensive damage to port installations. Storm surge more than 5m, Inundation up to 40 Km in specific areas and extensive beach erosion. All ships torn from their moorings. Flooding of escape routes. Catastrophic Fishermen not to venture into sea. Large scale evacuations needed. Total stoppage of rail and road traffic needed in vulnerable areas.

15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING Of Movement : Various Techniques are available for Track Prediction of the storm. i)* Methods based on climatology ii)* Methods based on Persistence & Climatology iii)* Synoptic Techniques – Empirical Techniques iv) * Satellite Techniques v)* Statistical Techniques using climatology, persistance and Synoptic vi)* Analogue Techniques and vii) Dynamical Techniques * Used in Operational Mode. Of Intensity and Associated Weather: No reliable objective techniques. Subjective techniques like Climatology, Synoptic and Satellite are used. Good Techniques are available for Storm Surge predictions. But accuracy depends on the accuracy of input data.

Four Stage Cyclone Warnings Fisheries warnings Weather and Sea bulletins Port Warnings (Storm Warning Signals) Coastal bulletins (upto 75 Kms from the coast line) Aviation Warnings Bulletins for Indian Navy “Fleet Forecast”. Bulletins for Departmental Exchange. Bulletins for AIR/DD Bulletins for Press Album page Warnings- to important govt/pvt agencies

I Stage -PRE-CYCLONE WATCH: 72 Hrs in Advance Early warning about development of a cyclone, its likely intensification, coastal belt likely to be affected etc. Issued by DGM himself and addressed to Cabinet Secy of GOI and Chief Secy of concerned State Govts II Stage – Cyclone Alert : At least 48 Hours in advance of adverse weather by concerned ACWCs/CWCs Contains location of storm, direction of movement, intensifi-cation, coastal districts likely to be affected, adv to fishermen

III Stage – Cyclone Warning : At least 24 hrs in advance by ACWCs/CWCs at 3 hrly Contains latest position of cyclone, its intensity, maximum sustained surface wind speed, forecast of landfall point, time of landfall , impact of strong winds, heavy rain and advice to fishermen and general public. IV Stage – Post Landfall Outlook: Issued 12 hrs in advance of expected time of land fall Issued by concerned ACWC Contains likely direction of movement after landfall, adverse weather likely to be experienced in the areas away from coast

19 PORT WARNINGS IMD maintains a port warnings service by which the Port officers are warned about disturbed weather likely to affect their Ports. On receipt of warnings, Port officials hoist appropriate visual signals so that they are visible from a distance. Ports are warned 5 to 6 times a day during period of cyclonic storm. Warning contains information about location, intensity, expected direction, expected land fall point and type of signal the Port should hoist.

20 Bulletin contains information about
FISHERIES WARNINGS Criteria Strong off-shore and on-shore winds (or with appropriate direction), speed exceeding 45 kmph SQUALLY Weather – Frequent Squalls with rain; or persistent type of strong gusty winds (>20kts; 36kmph) accompanied by rain. Gales State of sea very rough or above. Information Through ports XXW landline telegrams to fisheries officials and AIR broadcast daily three / four times in local language. Bulletin contains information about Synoptic situation Signals hoisted and Advice not to go out in to the sea.

CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS BEFORE CYCLONE (WHEN EXPECTED) Check doors, windows, bolts etc., Fix glass windows if loose Check defects in tiled/sheets roof Clean loose metal tins/sheets around house Shift from very old/damaged house Keep radio with batteries to hear cyclone warnings Store Kerosene, keep ready lamps, candles, match sticks, battery lights etc Store drinking water and provisions for a week. Ready to eat/easy to cook foods will further help in such situations Move to cyclone shelters if necessary. Move cattle to safety, secure boats & nets Be optimistic and prepared for cyclone Give adequate weightage for Cyclone Warnings even if no wind or rain is present. Some cyclones move fast and cause great damages.

Don’t be afraid. Hear to Cyclone Warnings. Don’t spread rumors. Don’t move around outside. Don’t leave cyclone shelters till told to do so. Don’t open doors and windows. If required open windows which are not facing the wind When cyclone passes over your place it will be calm and clear during the cyclone eye. Keep waiting for another spell of bad weather.

Move out of cyclone shelters after consulting concerned officers. Don’t touch electric wires on the way / road. Inform APSEB officials. Beware of big trees. Branches may break. Take vaccines and cholera injections. Drink water after adding chlorine tablets


25 Tsunamis A series of traveling ocean waves of extremely long length generated primarily by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, outer-space meteorite splash or landslides occurring below or near the ocean floor. Tsunamis are a threat to life and property for all coastal residents living near the ocean. Although 80% of the tsunamis occur in the Pacific, they can also threaten coastlines of countries in other regions, including the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, Caribbean region, and even the Atlantic Ocean.

26 MORE ABOUT TSUNAMIS Earth quakes of intensity >7 on Richter scale have potential for generating Tsunami Tsunamis travel outward in all directions from the generating area In the deep and open ocean, they travel at speeds of 500 to 1,000 kilometers per hour The distance between successive crests can be as much as 500 to 650 kilometers In the open ocean, the height of the waves may be no more than 30 to 60 centimeters (1 or 2 feet), and the waves pass unnoticed The passing waves produce only a gentle rise and fall of the sea surface. Upon reaching shallower water, the speed of the advancing wave diminishes, its wave length decreases, and its height may increase greatly, owing to the piling up of water Configuration of the coastline, shape of the ocean floor, and character of the advancing waves play an important role in the destruction wrought by tsunamis

27 TSUNAMI SAFETY RULES 1.       All earthquakes do not cause tsunamis, but many do. When you hear that an earthquake has occurred, stand by for a tsunami emergency. 2.       An earthquake in your area is a natural tsunami warning. Do not stay in low-lying coastal areas after a strong earthquake has been felt. 3.       A tsunami is not a single wave, but a series of waves. Stay out of danger areas until an "all-clear" is issued by competent authority. 4.       Approaching tsunamis are sometimes preceded by a noticeable rise or fall of coastal water. This is nature's tsunami warning and should be heeded. 5.       Small tsunami at one point on the shore can be extremely large a few miles away. Don't let the modest size of one make you lose respect for all. 7.       All tsunamis like hurricanes are potentially dangerous, even though they may not damage every coastline they strike. 8.       Never go down to the shore to watch for a tsunami. When you can see the wave you are too close to escape it. Never try to surf a tsunami; tsunamis do not curl or break like surfing waves. 10.    During a tsunami emergency, your local civil defense, police, and other emergency organizations will try to save your life. Give them your fullest cooperation.

A Network sensors being established by participating countries to share data A Multi Departmental setup involving IMD, DOD, DOS etc National Tsunami Warning Centre at INCOIS, Hyderabad Network if 17 Real Time Seismo Monitoring Stations being installed by IMD which transmit data to IMD and INCOIS 12 Nos Bottom Pressure Records being installed in BOB 50 Nos tide guages being installed along east coast, 8 along AP coast Tsunami Modelling (N2 of Japan, MOST by US) to be used to work out quickly the wave heights, wave speed etc. INCOIS processes data and issued warnings to MHA at Delhi MHA at Delhi co-ordinates dissemination



India Meteorological Department Is The National Agency For Detecting And Locating Arthquakes And Evaluation Of Seismicity In Different Parts Of The Country A network of Seismological sensors is maintained by IMD National Centre for Earthquakes in IMD HQ receives realtime data. Data is analysed using computer based systems and parameters like Epicentre, Intensity etc are computed. Data disseminated to INCOIS, MHA etc


33 FLOODS Floods are mainly triggered by severe thunderstorms, cyclones or monsoons. In low-lying coastal areas, storm surges, tsunamis or rivers swollen by exceptionally high tides can cause flooding. Floods can threaten human life and property. Floods affect Agriculture sector Flood water can become a breeding ground for mosquitoes, tsetse fly creating an increased risk of malaria, sleeping sickness, typhoid, cholera and dengue fever outbreak;

34 Monitoring of Floods IMD monitors Flood situations through a network 10 Flood Met Offices located in various states and as per river basins. FMOs collect rainfall data from rain gauges of IMD, CWC, State Govt networks and compute sub-basin wise Aerial Average Precipitation. FMOs issue sub-basin wise QPF to CWC. CWC issues flood alerts/warnings.

35 DROUGHTS Classification of droughts
Monitoring drought: Physical, Biological and Social Indicators Drought monitoring by IMD New Initiative : Drought Forecasting

36 Classification of droughts
Droughts are commonly classified into four categories which are mostly based on different parts of the hydrological cycle. Meteorological drought: Droughts generally start with a lack of precipitation, possibly in combination with high evapotranspiration, resulting from the natural variability of the weather. This is called a meteorological drought. Agricultural drought : The meteorological drought causes a lack of soil moisture, which is called a soil moisture drought and which affects agricultural crops and/or the natural vegetation. The soil moisture drought is also frequently called agricultural drought.

37 Classification of droughts
Hydrological drought : Lack of precipitation may also cause low stream flows: the stream flow drought. The soil moisture drought causes a decrease in the amount of recharge, which in turn causes lower groundwater levels and decreasing groundwater discharge to the surface water system, which is a groundwater drought. Both the stream flow drought and the groundwater drought are part of the hydrological drought. Socio-economic drought: The socio-economic drought expresses the deficit of water as an economic good and addresses the damage caused by all the different types of drought.

38 Measurement/indication of Four different ways of drought
Meteorological-a measure of departure of precipitation from normal. Due to climatic differences, what might be considered a drought in one location of the country may not be a drought in another location. Agricultural-refers to a situation where the amount of moisture in the soil no longer meets the needs of a particular crop. Hydrological-occurs when surface and subsurface water supplies are below normal. Socioeconomic-refers to the situation that occurs when physical water shortages begin to affect people.

39 Classification of droughts
Drought differs from aridity, which is characterized by a dry climate with low precipitation and high evaporation losses.. Drought characteristics vary significantly from one region to another, e.g., some days without receiving rainfall in a tropical region might be considered a drought occurrence, whereas in dry regions a drought may first be recognized after some years without rain.

40 Drought at a glance

41 Sequence of Drought Impacts:
When drought (i.e. meteorological drought ) begins, the agricultural sector is usually the first to be affected because of its heavy dependence on stored soil-water. Those who rely on surface water (i.e, reservoirs and lakes) and subsurface water (i.e,ground water) are usually the last to be affected. A deficit of precipitation has different impacts on the ground water, reservoir storage, soil moisture, snowpack, and streamflow. Soil moisture conditions respond to precipitation anomalies on a relatively short scale, while ground water, streamflow, and reservoir storage reflect the longer-term precipitation anomalies.

42 Monitoring drought: Physical, Biological and Social Indicators
Physical indicators include Rainfall, Effective soil moisture, Surface water availability, Depth to groundwater, etc. Biological/ Agricultural indicators comprise Vegetation cover & composition, Crop & Fodder yield, Condition of domestic animals, Pest incidence, etc. Social indicators are mostly impact indicators and include Food and Feed availability, Land use conditions, Livelihood shifts, Migration of population, etc. In most cases only those indicators that measure the rainfall needs of following sectors are considered: (a) agricultural need, (b) drinking water supply, and (c) storage of reservoirs and ground water

43 Drought monitoring by IMD
During 1965 and 1966, major parts of India were under prolonged and severe drought conditions due to deficient monsoon rainfall. On the recommendations of the Planning commission, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has started Drought Research and monitoring at Pune in 1967. IMD monitors drought by using three well established drought indices. One of which is purely meteorological drought, the second one is agricultural drought and the third one started last year covers meteorological, agricultural as well as hydrological droughts.

44 1. Percent of Normal The percent of normal precipitation is one of the simplest measurements of rainfall departure/deficiency for a location. Analyses using the percent of normal are very effective when used for a single region or a single season. Percent of normal is also easily misunderstood and gives different indications of conditions, depending on the location and season. It is calculated by dividing actual precipitation by normal precipitation i.e. long period average and multiplying by 100%. This can be calculated for a variety of time scales. Usually these time scales range from a single month to a group of months representing a particular season, to an annual or water year. Normal precipitation for a specific location is considered to be 100%.

45 IMD Criteria on meteorological drought
IMD describes meteorological drought from rainfall departure from its long term averages (normal) and declares meteorological drought on SEASONAL basis for a geographical region. Departure of actual rainfall from normal (%) to – Moderate drought or more Severe drought In India, a year is considered to be a DROUGHT YEAR in case the area affected by moderate and severe drought, either individually or together, is % of the total area of the country and seasonal rainfall deficiency during south-west monsoon season for the country as a whole is at least 10% or more. When the spatial coverage of drought is more than 40% it will be called as ALL INDIA SEVERE DROUGHT Merit : Simplicity makes this index popular in India. Demerit : Average precipitation is not always the same as median precipitation.



48 Rainfall Monitoring by IMD
India Meteorological Department through it’s wide network of observations (around 3000 rain gauges) routinely monitor rainfall situation over the country throughout the year in different spatial scales (districts/states/meteorological subdivisions and all India) in daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal scales and prepares rainfall reports for the use of different state/central government agencies. Hopefully we can start monitoring rainfall situation eve taluka/block level

49 Rainfall Monitoring in met subdivision scale
Monthly scale Weekly scale Seasonal scale


51 Daily time scale Weekly time scale Seasonal time scale 2014 SW

52 Rainfall Departures in Monsoon 2014
In CAP SRK,VZM & VSK Normal rainfall Remaining Districts Moderate Drought In RYSM KRN Normal rainfall Remaining Districts Moderate Drought In TLNG MDK & NZB Severe Drought Remaining Districts Moderate

53 Areas and dates of high impact weather events during the 2014southwest monsoon



56 Rainfall Monitoring in District scale
Seasonal scale Weekly scale

57 All India southwest monsoon rainfall and percentage of districts affecting drought during 2003-2013  

58 Every year even in good monsoon year more than 15 % of the districts (80-85 districts) of India experience drought

59 Agricultural drought IMD monitors agricultural drought on a real-time basis during the main crop seasons (kharif and rabi) of India using Aridity Anomaly Index. Based on the aridity index, Biweekly Aridity Anomaly Reports and maps for Southwest Monsoon Season for the whole country and for Northeast Monsoon Season for the five meteorological sub‑divisions, viz. coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Kerala are prepared. These maps are sent to Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operation, New Delhi and other government agencies on operational basis for the use in Agricultural Planning and advisory. The maps are also routinely uploaded in IMD website

60 Aridity Anomaly Index (contd..)
Aridity index (AI) is developed on the lines of Thornthwaite’s concept to monitor the incidence, spread, intensification, and recession of drought. Real time rainfall for about 210 stations network in considered for calculating Aridity index. AI is given as ─ PE - AE AI = × 100 PE where PE is potential evapotranspiration calculated with the help of Penman’s formula, which takes into account mean temperature, incoming solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed. AE is actual evapotranspiration calculated according to Thornthwaite’s water balance technique, taking into account of actual rainfall, and field capacity of the soil.

61 Aridity Anomaly Index (contd..)
The Normal Aridity Indices (NAI) are calculated using the climate normal values. Aridity anomalies (Actual ‑ Normal) are worked out and classified into various categories of aridity conditions viz. 'mild', 'moderate' and 'severe' for monitoring and assessment of agricultural droughts over the country. The arid areas are demarcated as follows: Aridity Anomaly Areas 0 or negative Non-arid 1 – Mild arid Moderate arid > Severe arid

62 Aridity Anomaly Index (contd..)
With the help of aridity anomalies, crop stress conditions in various parts of the country can be monitored during the monsoon season. These anomalies can be used for crop planning and in the early warning system during drought/desertification. This is an useful index for monitoring agricultural drought at 15 days interval.

63 Aridity Anomaly Maps during Southwest Monsoon Season 2013





68 Thank You


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