Presentation on theme: "Mitigation of Climate Change"— Presentation transcript:
1 Mitigation of Climate Change IPCC Working Group III contribution to theFourth Assessment ReportBert MetzCo-chair IPCC WG IIIRisoe International Energy Conference, Roskilde, Denmark, May 22, 2007
2 The process Three year process Assessment of published literature Extensive review by independent and government expertsSummary for Policy Makers approved line-by-line by all 180 IPCC member governments (Bangkok, May 4)Full report and technical summary accepted without discussion
3 The people Lead Authors: 168 Contributing authors: 85 from developing countries: 55From EITs: 5from OECD countries: 108Contributing authors: 85Expert Reviewers: 485
4 Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 % Total GHG emissionsGtCO2-eq/yr6055504540353025201510519701980199020002004
6 With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decadesIPCC SRES scenarios: %increase of GHG emissionsin 2030 relative to 2000GtCO2eq/yr2030
7 Mitigation potential Mitigation potential: Market potential: Emission reduction, relative to emission baselines, that is economically attractive at a given “price of carbon”Market potential:Based on private costs and private rates of returnExpected to occur under forecast market conditionsIncluding policies and measures currently in placeBarriers limit actual uptakeEconomic potential:Takes into account social costs and benefits and social rates of return,Assuming that market efficiency is improved by policies and measures andBarriers are removed
8 Global economic potential in 2030 Economic mitigation potential till 2030 could offset the projected growth of global emissions, or reduce emissions below current levelsBoth bottom-up and top-down studiesBOTTOM-UPTOP-DOWNGlobal economic potential in 2030Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes
9 What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq mean? Crude oil: ~US$ 25/ barrelGasoline: ~12 ct/ litre (50 ct/gallon)Electricity:from coal fired plant: ~5 ct/kWhfrom gas fired plant: ~1.5 ct/kWh
10 All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute (end-use based) Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.
12 Future energy supplyStrong increase in energy demand projected (upto 100% by 2030)Increase in oil/gas price: both low and high carbon alternatives attractivePrice volatility important barrier against investmentsShortage of fossil fuel is not going to help to stabilise CO2 concentrations (IPCC TAR)
13 How can emissions be reduced? SectorKey mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. (Selected)Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected)Energy Supplyefficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities;advanced nuclear power;advanced renewables (tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)
15 Potential emission reductions from additional electricity saving in Building sector at <US$ 50 /t CO2
16 Potential emission reductions from additional electricity saving in the industrial sector at <US$ 50 /t CO2
17 Potential emission reductions from additional improved generation plant efficiency and fuel switching at <US$50 /tCO2
18 Potential emission reductions from additional hydro, wind, geothermal, bioenergy, solar at <US$ 50 /tCO2The share of renewables in the total electricity supply can rise from 18% in 2005 to 30 – 35% by 2030 (at carbon price < US$50/tCO2eq).
19 Potential emission reductions from additional nuclear power at <US$ 50 /tCO2 Nuclear share can increase from 16% of the electricity supply in 2005 up to 18% in 2030 (at carbon price < US$50/tCO2eq).
20 Potential emission reductions from additional CCS in new coal and gas plants at <US$ 50 /tCO2 Fossil fuel share of electricity generation without CCS drops to < 50% of total supply by 2030 (at carbon price < US$50/tCO2eq).
21 How can emissions be reduced? Sector(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected)TransportMore fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planningSecond generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries
22 Mitigation potential in the transport sector till 2030 Goods transport, public transport: not quantifiedVehicle efficiency: net benefits (many cases), but big barriersAviation: efficiency, but not offsetting growthBiofuel potential :Depends on production pathway, vehicle efficiency, oil and carbon prices3% of global transport energy in 2030; 5-10% , if cellulose biomass is commercialisedWatch out for: local land and water availability, competition with food
23 How can emissions be reduced? Sector(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected)IndustryMore efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO2 gas emissionsAdvanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufactureBuildingsEfficient lighting; efficient appliances and airconditioners; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliancesIntegrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings
24 Mitigation potential in the industry and buildings sector till 2030 Potential predominantly in energy intensive industries.Many efficient installations in developing countiresBarriers include slow stock turnover and (for SMEs) lack of financial resources, inability to absorb technical informationBuildings:About 30% of projected GHG emissions by 2030 can be avoided with net economic benefit.New buildings: >75% savings compared to current (at low to zero additional cost)Barriers include availability of technologies, financing, cost of reliable information and limitations in building designs
25 Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings.Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systemsReduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport
26 What are the macro-economic costs in 2030? Costs are global average for least cost appoaches from top-down modelsCosts do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damagesTrajectories towards stabilization levels(ppm CO2-eq)MedianGDP reduction(%)Range of GDP reduction Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates (percentage points)0.2-0.6 – 1.2< 0.060.60.2 – 2.5<0.1Not available< 3< 0.12 This is global GDP based market exchange rates. The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030. The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.
27 Illustration of cost numbers GDPGDP without mitigation80%77%GDP with stringent mitigationcurrentTime~1 year
28 There are also co-benefits of mitigation Near–term health benefits from reduced air pollution may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costsMitigation can also be positive for: energy security, balance of trade improvement, provision of modern energy services to rural areas, sustainable agriculture and employment
29 Stabilisation of GHG concentrations (radiative forcing) in the atmosphere and emission reductions The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO2 emissions have to peakMultigas and CO2 only studies combined
30 Stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures Equilibrium temperatures reached after 2100Uncertainty of climate sensitivity importantMultigas and CO2 only studies combined
31 Long term mitigation (after 2030) Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levelsStab level(ppm CO2-eq)Global Mean temp. increaseat equilibrium (ºC)Year global CO2 needs to peakYear global CO2 emissions back at 2000 levelReduction in 2050 global CO2 emissions compared to 2000445 – 4902.0 – 2.4-85 to -50490 – 5352.4 – 2.8-60 to -30535 – 5902.8 – 3.2-30 to +5590 – 7103.2 – 4.0+10 to +60710 – 8554.0 – 4.9+25 to +85855 – 11304.9 – 6.1+90 to +140 The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM]. Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150. Ranges correspond to the 15th to 85th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO2-only scenarios.
32 Technology The range of stabilization levels can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available andthose that are expected to be commercialised in coming decades.This assumes that appropriate and effective incentives are in place for development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion of technologies and for addressing related barriers
33 What are the macro-economic costs in 2050? Trajectories towards stabilization levels(ppm CO2-eq)MedianGDP reduction(%)Range of GDP reduction Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates (percentage points)0.5-1 – 2< 0.051.3Slightly negative - 4<0.1Not available< 5.5< 0.12 This is global GDP based market exchange rates. The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2050that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2050. The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.
34 Policies are available to to governments to realise mitigation of climate change Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementationIntegrating climate policies in broader development policiesRegulations and standardsTaxes and chargesTradable permitsFinancial incentivesVoluntary agreementsInformation instrumentsResearch and development
35 Selected sectoral policies, measures and instruments that have shown to be environmentally effective Policies, measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effectiveKey constraints or opportunitiesEnergy supplyReduction of fossil fuel subsidiesResistance by vested interests may make them difficult to implementTaxes or carbon charges on fossil fuelsFeed-in tariffs for renewable energy technologiesMay be appropriate to create markets for low emissions technologiesRenewable energy obligationsProducer subsidies Public RD&D investment in low emission technologies have proven to be effective in all sectors.
36 Selected sectoral policies, measures and instruments that have shown to be environmentally effective Policies, measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effectiveKey constraints or opportunitiesTransportMandatory fuel economy, biofuel blending and CO2 standards for road transportPartial coverage of vehicle fleet may limit effectivenessTaxes on vehicle purchase, registration, use and motor fuels, road and parking pricingEffectiveness may drop with higher incomesInfluence mobility needs through land use regulations, and infrastructure planningParticularly appropriate for countries that are building up their transportation systemsInvestment in attractive public transport facilities and non-motorised forms of transport Public RD&D investment in low emission technologies have proven to be effective in all sectors.
37 An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes.Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulationFor stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach US$/tCO2eq by 2030(5-65 if “induced technological change” happens)At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected
38 InvestmentsEnergy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions.The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment, although the net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5-10%It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply
39 The importance of technology policies The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more efficient RD&D efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decadesGovernment support is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment throughfinancial contributions,tax credits,standard settingmarket creation.BUT, government funding for most energy research programmes has been declining for nearly two decades: now about half of 1980 level.
40 International agreements Notable achievements of the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol that may provide the foundation for future mitigation efforts:global response to the climate problem,stimulation of an array of national policies,the creation of an international carbon market andnew institutional mechanismsFuture agreements:Greater cooperative efforts to reduce emissions will help to reduce global costs for achieving a given level of mitigation, or will improve environmental effectivenessImproving, and expanding the scope of, market mechanisms (such as emission trading, Joint Implementation and CDM) could reduce overall mitigation costsAssessed literature on future agreements on basis of criteria for enevironmental/ cost effectiveness, distributional/ institutional feasibility
41 Two-way Relationship Between Climate Change and Sustainable Development Climate policy can have positive or negative effects on other aspects of SDNon-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policiesClimate change mitigationSustainable development
42 Examples of side-effects of climate mitigation OPTIONSEnergy: efficiency, renewables, fuel-switchingSYNERGIESair qualitysupply securityemploymentcosts (efficiency)TRADEOFFSparticulate emissions (diesel)biodiversity (biofuels)costs (renewables)waste: landfill gas capture, incinerationhealth & safetyenergy advantagesground water pollutioncosts
43 Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies SectorsNon-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concernsPossible influence (% of global emissions)Macro-economyTaxes, subsidies, other fiscal policiesAll GHG emissions (100%)ElectricityDiversification to low-carbon sources, demand management, limit distribution lossesElectricity sector emissions (20 %)Oil-importsDiversification energy sources/decrease intensity -> enhance energy securityGHGs from oil product imports (20 %)Insurance (buildings, infrastructure)Differentiated premiums, liability insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green productsGHG emissions buildings, transport (20%)Bank lendingSector/ country strategies, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing countriesNotably development projects (25%)Rural energyPolicies promoting LPG, kerosene and electricity for cookingExtra emissions over biomass (<2 %)
44 The Summary for Policy Makers , the Technical Summary and the full Report (subject to editing) can be downloaded from Further information: IPCC Working Group III Technical Support Unit at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: