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WORKING GROUPS - SCENARIOS AND GUIDANCE - 1. Anthropology Criminology Communication Sciences Education Economics Geography Political Science Psychology.

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Presentation on theme: "WORKING GROUPS - SCENARIOS AND GUIDANCE - 1. Anthropology Criminology Communication Sciences Education Economics Geography Political Science Psychology."— Presentation transcript:

1 WORKING GROUPS - SCENARIOS AND GUIDANCE - 1

2 Anthropology Criminology Communication Sciences Education Economics Geography Political Science Psychology Religion Sociology Others… Understanding ROMOUnderstanding the Human Environment Understanding Power and Influence Understanding the Environment …from George Solhan’s Presentation 2

3 MULTI-SCALE INTERACTIONS SCALE Macro Meso Micro Society Organization Individual Collective interactions form a group Group and societal influences affect individuals Dynamic and Unstructured Environment 3

4 ROMO Power/Influence Human Environ. Environ. -What are the key disciplines? -What are the key elements of the disciplines? -What are the key interfaces between the disciplines? -What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)? -How do we decompose these into building blocks so that hypotheses can be posed and tested? From the building blocks, can we create a matrix of relevance across -Phases of ROMO -Power dimensions -Human dimensions Each Group will Deconstruct, Mix, and Re-construct SCENARIOS AND WORKING GROUPS 4

5 SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP 5

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10 Individuals Groups Society Mubarak: Autocrat Individuals In Egypt 1000s Hundreds of 1000s Egypt: 85 Million PeopleWorld: 350 Million Arabs Multi-Scale Interactions TIME PEOPLE 30 Years: Mubarak Rule 10 Days: Uprising Orderly or Chaotic Transition? -Spontaneous -Massive -Peaceful -Popular -Secular (Islam not center stage) What will be the nature of this transition? 10

11 SCENARIO 1: EGYPT RISES UP Autocracy leads to upheaval. Democracy is best guarantor of stability. ROMO Power/Influence Human Environ. Environ. 4-5 (Security, Stability, Civil Authority) Mubarak -Autocrat; clings to power; intimidation -Brutal and corrupt police force Muslim Brothers -Anti-West, Anti-Israel -20% popularity, but falling Military -Control streets, respected by people West -Influence political, business, & military elite -Help speed transition to order Democratic Egypt -Beacon to region -Help incorporate Arab democracies -Settlement w/ Palestinians -Generally poor -Sophisticated elite -Well educated middle class -Strong sense of national pride -Unemployed youth 20%) -Digitally driven (internet) -What are the key disciplines? -What are the key elements of the disciplines? -What are the key interfaces between the disciplines? -What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)? -How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested? 11

12 SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY National Coordinator for Counterterrorism (NCTb), July 2010 Sadik Harchaoui, Chair of the Board of Directors of the Institute for Multicultural Development FORUM, the Netherlands. FORUM is an independent knowledge institute and centre of expertise for multicultural affairs. FORUM operates out of the frame of reference of the democratic constitutional state, social cohesion and shared citizenship. Countering Violent Extremists 12

13 SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists 13

14 SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists 14

15 SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists 15

16 SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists Footnotes 16

17 ROMO Power/Influence Human Environ. Environ. 0(Shape, Prevent, Prepare) Jihadi Extremists -West is enemy of Islam -Counter West with jihad Western Governments (local & national) -De-radicalization and rehabilitation programs -Empower liberal Muslims Civil society (non-state) Actors -NGO’s o Bring credibility o Well equipped to engage in dialogue -Local & regional networks Islamic and Arabic World Soft Power – ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments -Doubts about democratic, political, or personnel legitimacy of system -Socio-economic influences -Ethnic-cultural positions -State propaganda may further antagonize -Ordinary citizens willing to build bridges between cultures -Popular artists and sportsmen acting as ambassadors -What are the key disciplines? -What are the key elements of the disciplines? -What are the key interfaces between the disciplines? -What are the key interfaces between the disciplines and the other three environments (ROMO, Power, Human)? -How do we decompose these so that hypotheses can be posed and tested? SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Countering Violent Extremists 17

18 Individuals Groups Society Multi-Scale Interactions TIME PEOPLE SCENARIO 2: SOCIAL DIPLOMACY Radicalization – slow and gradual process NGO’s – Daily communications NGO’s – Relationship building Years Days Citizens -Against extremism -Rank and file with more practical and ordinary motivations -Alienated or estranged; ideologically, religiously, or ethnically motivated Civil Society (non-state) Actors -Gain financial and logistical support from government -Must remain independent from government to retain credibility Governments -Draw on expertise of society and business 18

19 Understanding ROMO 0 Shape 1 Deter 2 Seize Initiative 3 Dominate 4 Stabilize 5 Enable Civil Anthropology Criminology Communication Sciences Education Economics Geography Political Science Psychology Religion Sociology Other 19

20 Phase 0Shape Prevent, Prepare Phase 1DeterCrisis defined Phase 2Seize Initiative Assure friendly freedom of action / access theater infrastructure Phase 3DominateEstablish dominant force capabilities / achieve full-spectrum superiority Phase 4StabilizeEstablish security and restore services Phase 5Enable CivilTransfer to civil authority and redeploy RANGE OF MILITARY OPERATIONS (ROMO) PHASES 20

21 Understanding Power & Influence TribalismReligious State Fundamental -ism Traditional -ism DemocracyZionismOther Anthropology Criminology Communication Sciences Education Economics Geography Political Science Psychology Religion Sociology Other 21

22 Understanding the Human Environment PhysiologySafety / Security BelongingEsteemSelf ActualizationOther Anthropology Criminology Communication Sciences Education Economics Geography Political Science Psychology Religion Sociology Other 22

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