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Hard Choices: Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget Tony Cucolo Major General, US Army 21 MAR 12 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Hard Choices: Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget Tony Cucolo Major General, US Army 21 MAR 12 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hard Choices: Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget Tony Cucolo Major General, US Army 21 MAR 12 1

2 The G-8’s Role 3 How does the Army support the defense Strategy? What size Army? What capabilities? Center for Army Analysis Develop the Army resourcing plan Program Analysis and Evaluation Quadrennial Defense Review Force Development Deputy Chief of Staff G-8 Integrates staffs and commands to provide fully equipped forces as directed Manage Army reset for the current and next fight Assess the Army’s next essential need Develops and defends the “Army Program” Translate requirements to solutions Where I’m from: “Army G-8”

3 The FD’s Role 4 Equipment Modernization Strategy Translate requirements into programs Materiel Plan, synchronize, and integrate equipping requirements for deployed units Balance, prioritize requirements against resources Resourcing Joint and Futures Integration What I do: “Force Development”

4 4 New Defense Strategic Guidance Transition from today’s wars to preparing for future challenges Rebalance to Asia-Pacific, while remaining vigilant in Middle East Maintain our Article 5 commitments to NATO Strengthening alliances/partnerships across all regions 10 primary missions of the US Armed Forces; 4 for sizing: Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare Deter and Defeat Aggression “deterring and defeating aggression by an opportunistic adversary in one region even when our forces are committed to a large-scale operation elsewhere” Maintain a Safe, Secure, and Effective Nuclear Deterrent Defend the Homeland and Provide Support to Civil Authorities Maintain a ready and capable force, even as we reduce our overall capacity Ability to surge and regenerate (reversibility) Keep faith with troops, families, and veterans 5 Jan 12

5 “Sizing” Guidance Sizing guidance: Deter and Defeat Aggression: One large-scale combined arms campaign with follow-on small-scale stability/transition operations for limited period using standing forces (or sustained with partial mobilization), and defeat aggression by an opportunistic adversary in another region, simultaneously. Counter Terrorism and Irregular Warfare: Sustain capabilities, capacity, and institutional expertise for direct action and security force assistance. Defend the Homeland: Heightened defense posture in/around the United States (including missile defense) and support to civil authorities for one large-scale terrorist attack or natural disaster or complex catastrophe. Specifics: ►Reduce AC end strength to 490K by end of FY 17 ►Reduce at least 8 AC BCTs, including 2 ABCTs in Europe 5

6 Conventional Structure and Capability Irregular Operations Terrorist/Criminalactivity Proxies Strategic Capabilities HYBRIDSTRATEGY Hybrid Strategies Recognize conventional confrontation with the US is a losing proposition Focus on US vulnerabilities Utilize home terrain advantages Nontraditional employment of all possible capabilities End State: frustrate US operations ensure survival of key capabilities turn conflict into protracted war of attrition U.S. is likely to face a hybrid strategy into the foreseeable future 6 Three components of Hybrid Threats  Nation States or Proxies with a range of capabilities  Desire to preclude U.S. from executing its “way of war”  Capabilities that create a “Strategic Lever”… specifically designed to impact U.S. actions

7 Hybrid Threat Concept Anti-access and area denial campaigns … strategic thru tactical levels Engage at small unit level to obtain overmatch Use violence, intimidation and coercion against the population WMD capable… but still seeking nuclear Avoid detection and targeting by operating among the people Slow down or halt our momentum using anti-tank missiles, IEDs, air defense and SOF Increased use of robotics and unmanned aerial systems Employ electronic warfare to counter US precision Conduct sophisticated information campaigns designed to erode US will over time Joint Operational Access Concept AirSea Battle CONUS Intermediate Staging Base Gaining & Maintaining Access Hybrid Threats 7

8 A Changed View: Range of Military Operations 8 Historic Examples: s Rainbow Planning Airmobile Active Defense Air Land Battle Now: Air Sea Battle Historic Examples: s Rainbow Planning Airmobile Active Defense Air Land Battle Now: Air Sea Battle Specific Threat Specific Location Specific Threat Specific Location Specific threat, degree of certainity, and known location drove : Doctrine Equipment Training Organizational Structure Force Posture Specific threat, degree of certainity, and known location drove : Doctrine Equipment Training Organizational Structure Force Posture Formerly, a narrow lens… No holistic Operational Construct will arise that encompasses all of Unified Land Ops and drive doctrine, equipment, etc., as Air Land Battle did. Defeat Anti-Access Defeat Area Denial But now a specified wide lens With hybrid strategies presenting hybrid threats Hard Complex problems, but simple narrative to Congress and the American People based off real potential threat to vital national interests. Joint Combined Arms Fire & Maneuver As operational construct Joint Combined Arms Fire & Maneuver As operational construct Assume Risk (…but The Army still did what it was told outside this narrow lens) FHA Nuke Cyber & Space HD/DSCA Stability Ops Deter & Defeat CWMDCT/IW COIN BPC Conduct Unified Land Operations Gain and Maintain Access

9 Unified Land Operations 9 Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative to gain and maintain a position of relative advantage in sustained land operations in order to create the conditions for favorable conflict resolution Decisive Action Offensive Defensive Stability DSCA Executed through… Army Core Competencies Combined Arms Maneuver Wide Area Security By means of… Mission Command Guided by…

10 The “specialize” or “generalize” question… How adaptable is the general purpose formation built for unified land operations? 10

11 Our Strength is Our Ability to Adapt Operational Adaptability codified in doctrine (“Unified Land Operations”) Full Spectrum Operations OIF I Advise & Assist Brigades Security Force Advise & Assist Teams Executed by Operationally Adaptable Brigades & Battalions 11 Hurricane Katrina Relief Haiti Earthquake Assistance Heavy Air Assaults Police Training Programs Border Training PRT Support Pakistan Flood Relief Sustain Ops in Honduras, Bosnia, Kosovo and Egypt Support to Civil Affairs, PSYOPS, Info Ops and CT Ops in Horn of Africa

12 Our Marching Orders Are Clear THE ROLE OF THE ARMY The purpose of the U.S. Army is to fight and win our Nation’s wars. Warfighting is our primary mission. Everything that we do should be grounded in this fundamental principle. Our strategic framework is guided by three principal and interconnected roles: PREVENT: The Army prevents conflict by maintaining credibility based on capacity, readiness and modernization. It averts miscalculations by potential adversaries. SHAPE: The Army shapes the environment by sustaining strong relationships with other Armies, building their capacity, and facilitating strategic access. WIN: If prevention fails, the Army rapidly applies its combined arms capabilities to dominate the environment and win decisively.

13 Prevent, Shape, Win 13 Prevent wars (deter & contain): 1.Brandish land forces of sufficient size and fighting power to deter potential opponents 2.Demonstrate ability to deploy forces 3.Conduct sustained stability operations to prevent conflict Shape the Security Environment: 1.Expand and strengthen relationships with partners around the globe 2.Develop new relationships* 3.Foster mutual understanding 4.Help partners defend themselves, both internally and externally 5.Open access for US forces Win decisively and dominantly : 1.Lead Joint Task Forces; provide connectivity to JIIM elements* 2.Employ a versatile mix of units to conduct sustained land campaigns and counter-terrorism operations 3.Conduct sustained stability operations to conclude a conflict Prevent Shape Win

14 But Equip for what? 14

15 Equip to Win. Decisively…against the application of a hybrid strategy. 15

16 The equipping challenge: optimizing the available resources to adequately equip to address the strategy. 16

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18 18 Budget Guidance Cut $487 billion over next decade; $259 billion over next 5 years No longer size active forces to conduct large and protracted stability operations while retaining expertise of a decade of war Asia-Pacific region places a renewed emphasis on air and naval forces Middle East... Increasingly maritime Eliminate 2 heavy brigades in Europe Security partner of choice – innovative, low-cost, and small- footprint approaches Premium on self- and rapidly-deployable forces Premium on forces present or able to rapidly reposition Reduced inter/intra-theater airlift Cut Regular Army to 490K by end of FY 17, including at least 8 BCTs (future design under review) Retain more mid-grade offices and NCOs Delay GCV and Army aviation modernization; terminate JLENS and HMMWV upgrades; reduce JAGM Air Force Disestablish 6 fighter squadrons (5 A-10, 1 F-16) Divest C-27J Limited military pay raises beginning in 2015 Reductions in planned civilian pay raises Increased TRICARE fees for retirees Additional BRAC round(s) 26 Jan 12

19 The process begins with defining the and validating requirements…and since we cannot afford to resource every valid requirement, routine prioritization becomes key. 19

20 Strategy Lessons Learned Urgent Needs Leader Input Future Force Requirements TRADOC Develop / Integrate HQDA Policy / Guidance ResourcesRequirements - Validate (G-3) - Prioritize (G-3) - Resource (G-8) - Approve (Senior Leaders) - Document (G-3) - Develop - Acquire - Distribute - Upgrade - Sustain - Divest Acquisition / Life Cycle Managers Balance What the field needs Affordability / Best Value Buy / Maintain investments Turning Requirements into Solutions 20

21 Current Priorities and Top 10 Programs Priorities  Empower, Protect and Unburden the Soldier; equip the Squad to be the foundation of the decisive force  Network the Force  Deter & Defeat Hybrid Threats by Replacing, Improving and/or Transforming: -Combat Vehicles -Aviation -Light Tactical Vehicles 21 Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV) Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV) Paladin Integrated Management (PIM) Kiowa Warrior (KW) Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) Warfighter Information Network – Tactical (WIN-T) Joint Battle Command-Platforms (JBC-P) Nett Warrior Distributed Common Ground System- Army (DCGS-A) 10 Critical Programs 21

22 But the challenge goes beyond equipment…and with great complexity. 22

23 Manpower Balance = 40 – 45% Training & Ops Balance = 11 – 14% BOS/Family Prog Balance = 6 – 7% RDT&E Balance = 5 – 8% Procurement Balance = 14 – 18% Facilities Balance = 7 – 9% Sustainment Balance = 3 – 5% Other Support Balance = 2 – 2.5% Chem Demil Balance = 0.5 – 1% “Balanced” Spending The Metric of Spending Ranges

24 24 WhenWhat We DidWhat We ExpectedWhat We Got Post WWII Precipitous drawdown Army budget reduction in favor of Strategic Air Command Strategic nuclear war with USSR Conventional war in Korea Post Korea Force reduction Pentomic Division then ROAD Division Tactical nuclear weapons Strategic nuclear war with USSR preceded by conventional/tactical nuclear war in Europe as part of NATO alliance Defense of Korea with the ROK Protracted counterinsurgency in Vietnam Post Vietnam Steep drawdown Ended conscription…converted to the All Volunteer Force Developed new doctrine…AirLand Battle Modernized…Big Five Systems Revolutionized training...National Training Centers Conventional/Tactical Nuclear War with the Warsaw Pact in Central Europe with NATO Allies Defense of Korea with the ROK End of the Cold War One brief conventional fight with Iraq Post Gulf War Began a steep drawdown (collecting the “Peace Dividend”) Restored the honor and reputation of US Arms Stabilized at a lower level of budget and manpower Army reoriented to fight conventional wars with rogue states Planning construct was for two nearly simultaneous Major Theater Wars (MTW’s) plus lesser operations Enduring Stability Operations in Bosnia and Kosovo One major, unconventional country takedown…Taliban Afghanistan One major, brief conventional fight with Iraq Two major counterinsurgency wars…Iraq and Afghanistan CT Operations in the Horn of Africa What if we get it wrong? Strategic Expectations

25 The best hedge against an uncertain future is a well-trained, well-equipped, and well-disciplined land force with global reach. 25

26 Hard Choices: Equipping an Army for a New Strategy with a Smaller Budget Tony Cucolo Major General, US Army 21 MAR 12 26

27 Back Up 27

28 IN NEARLY 120 COUNTRIES OVERSEAS OTHER OPERATIONS & EXERCISES 5,200 SOLDIERS HONDURAS JTF-BRAVO 290 SOLDIERS KFOR 690 SOLDIERS Army Global Commitments IRAQ 130 SOLDIERS CONUS SPT BASE 2,870 SOLDIERS (RC Mobilized Stateside) MFO 640 SOLDIERS OEF- AFGHANISTAN 65,810 SOLDIERS KUWAIT 15,100 SOLDIERS BOSNIA 90 SOLDIERS USAREUR 38,230 SOLDIERS (FWD Stationed) JTF- HOA 1,220 SOLDIERS QATAR 1,860 SOLDIERS OEF- PHILIPPINES 480 SOLDIERS ALASKA 13,850 SOLDIERS (FWD Stationed) HAWAII 22,630 SOLDIERS (FWD Stationed) JAPAN 2,500 SOLDIERS SOUTH KOREA 18,970 SOLDIERS (Part of AC Station Overseas) JTF-GTMO 350 SOLDIERS PACOM NORTHCOM SOUTHCOM EUCOMCENTCOM AFRICOM ARMY PERSONNEL STRENGTH Component RC AUTHORIZED FOR MOBILIZATION / ON CURRENT ORDERS 21 Feb 2012 Army Global Commitments 28

29 Allocation of Defense Resources Allocation of resources within DOD have remained relatively constant over the past 60 years, except during war. 29

30 An independent thought: The role of the Army is to provide strategic breadth and depth to the Joint Force through the conduct of decisive unified land operations in support of National objectives. 30 The Army gives the Commander in Chief the widest range of options for actions on land.

31 Army Force-Sizing Missions Deter and Defeat Aggression Defend the Homeland & Support Civil Authorities Counter Terrorism & Irregular Warfare 31 Conduct Stability & Counterinsurgency Operations Defeat Opportunistic Aggression

32 Smaller Force... Different Focus FOUO -- DRAFT -- PREDECISIONAL ACRC ACRC ACRC 2018 ACRC ACRC ACRC ACRC Combined Arms Campaign + Transition Operations Defeat Opportunistic Aggression Counterterrorism & Irregular Warfare Defend the Homeland & Support Civil Authorities Force Pool 1 Force Pool 2 Force Pool 3 Rotational Depth

33 Affordably Building a Force Identify areas where risk can be accepted and trades can be made to achieve high priority/high payoff modernization objectives. Quantity Schedule Cost Capability (Portfolio, Formation, Platform) Where does the Army accept risk? Organization SizeItem CostVariant of Item Procurement Schedule

34 Combined Arms Maneuver – the application of the elements of combat power in a complementary and reinforcing manner to achieve physical, temporal, or psychological advantages over the enemy, preserve freedom of action, and exploit success. Source: TRADOC Pamphlet Wide Area Security – the application of the elements of combat power in coordination with other military and civilian capabilities to deny the enemy positions of advantage; protect forces, populations, infrastructure, and activities; and consolidate tactical and operational gains to set conditions for achieving strategic and policy goals.

35 Operational Concepts to Engage 35 Joint Operational Access Concept (Counter Anti-Access / Area Denial) – Littoral Operations Concept – Joint Concept for Entry Operations – Sustained Land Operations Concept – Joint Sustainment Operations Concept – USA / USMC Concept for Gaining and Maintaining Access Building Partner Capacity Concept Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept Cyber Operations Concept Army Unified Land Operations play a significant role in Joint Unified Action


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