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The Australian Energy Regulator Expenditure Forecast Assessment Guidelines Opex base-step-trend 8 May 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "The Australian Energy Regulator Expenditure Forecast Assessment Guidelines Opex base-step-trend 8 May 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Australian Energy Regulator Expenditure Forecast Assessment Guidelines Opex base-step-trend 8 May 2013

2 Agenda 9:00 Introductions 9:05 Context and framework considerations 9:15 Output growth 10:00 Productivity growth 10:45 Morning tea 11:00 Real price impacts 11:40 Step changes 12:20 Summary and next steps 12:30 Close 2

3 Where are we today? Issues paper 20 Dec 2012 Initial Roundtable 12 Feb 2013 Category selection 28 Feb 2013 Replacement/Demand 7/8 Mar 2013 Connection/Customer driven capex 19/20 Mar 2013 Repex/Augex models, demand forecasting 27 Mar 2013 Opex category assessment 11 Apr 2013 Interactions with incentive frameworks 29 Apr 2013 Base-step-trend / Productivity change 8 May 2013 Overheads, cost allocation and accounting issues 16 May 2013 Expenditure setting process 30 May 2013 3

4 Objectives for this workshop Identify the key drivers of cost changes between ‘base opex’ and later years Discuss a method for accounting for all of these drivers without double-counting costs Identify and discuss data collection implications 4

5 Context and framework considerations 5

6 What is base-step-trend? Different people think of different things when they hear ‘base-step-trend’ Opex is forecast by escalating a base year to account for: ◦Network/scale/output growth ◦Productivity improvements (such as economies of scale) ◦Real price changes ◦Other changes (step changes) 6

7 Base opex Various different ways base opex can be determined Two extremes: 1.Revealed cost with no adjustments 2.External benchmark 7

8 The ‘rate of change’ approach The formula for the opex rate of change can be stated as: ΔReal Opex = ΔOutput Quantity– ΔOpex Partial Productivity + ΔReal Opex Price Thus we require forecasts of: ◦output quantity growth ◦opex partial productivity growth ◦opex input price growth. A key advantage of this approach is it captures productivity in a single measure 8

9 Output growth 9

10 Forecast output growth Various different approaches have been used to account for network growth: ◦Undepreciated RAB ◦Composite size measures Typically an economies of scale factor has been applied Under the ‘rate of change’ approach economies of scale are captured in the productivity forecast Output growth would be forecast using the same measure as used to calculate productivity 10

11 Productivity growth 11

12 Forecast productivity growth Previously it has been difficult to include forecast productivity in opex forecasts: ◦Labour productivity has been difficult to measure and forecast ◦Double counting concerns regarding economies of scale and labour productivity Rate-of-change approach tries to address these issues by measuring a single productivity measure 12

13 Real price impacts 13

14 Forecast real price changes Have previously accounted for real price changes in labour and materials Debate over whether AWOTE or LPI should be used to forecast real labour price changes The labour productivity incorporated in these two labour price measures has been a key consideration Under the ‘rate of change approach’: ◦Forecast labour price changes should not be productivity adjusted ◦The labour price measure used should match that used to measure productivity ◦Both AWOTE & LPI should yield similar results 14

15 Forecast real price changes Real materials price changes have been forecast using an input cost model The forecasts from input cost models have not been critically tested against actual input costs faced by NSPs Under the ‘rate of change’ approach the materials cost forecasts should use the same measure as that used to forecast productivity 15

16 Step changes 16

17 Step changes Should relate to output changes not captured in the output growth variable Should not relate to discretionary changes in inputs The productivity component will capture ‘regulatory creep’ which must be taken into account 17

18 Next steps If you require more slides, right click on a slide to the left and select “Duplicate Slide” to keep the same format. datetopic 16 MayOverheads, cost allocation, accounting issues 30 MayExpenditure setting process and general issues 18

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