Presentation on theme: "1 jb Fisher Center Real Estate Conference April 22, 2013 Dean Wehrli, Vice President."— Presentation transcript:
1 jb Fisher Center Real Estate Conference April 22, 2013 Dean Wehrli, Vice President
2 2012 Was A Great Year Home Prices and Sales Rates Were Up Giants won the World Series Stanford won the Rose Bowl
3 Northern California Price Appreciation Among the Best Nationally This is great news for private builders who need equity partners. This is also why the public builders are allocating capital to Northern CA Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Metro Analysis & Forecast, April 2013
4 Foreclosure Starts Trending Down to Normal through 2014 Distressed still an Issue, but less so all the time
5Agenda 1.Market Trends Near You 2.The Big Creep 3.Pros and the Cons
7 JBREC Housing Cycle Risk Index™ looks at 4 major categories for fundamentals I. Demand 1.Total Buying Activity (New and Resale) 2.Median Resale Price Appreciation 3.Job Growth 4.Population Growth 5.Realtor Market Ratings II. Supply 1.Permit Trends 2.Resale Listings III. Affordability 1.JBREC Affordability Index 2.Home Equity 3.Mortgage Rates IV. U.S. Economy 4 major categories, with 11 subcategories and 25 calculations
27Agenda 1.Market Trends Near You 2.The Big Creep 3.Pros and the Cons
28 The Good Economy Picking Up: Knocking on wood. Boomerang Buyers: Itching to get back into the for-sale market. Urgency Back: Prices not falling and how long will these mortgage rates last? Inventory: How low can it go? Rising Prices: With a vengeance. Rising Sales: But already supply constrained.
30 The “Concerning” Prices Rising: Low payments still, but price to income not great anymore. Mortgage Rates: Have to go up – and with them the payments to price ratio. Investors: Organic buyers often shut out. Inventory: Resales inventory has to go up – the chicken and egg phenomenon. No Place to Build: We need to get lots to the market. Be Careful of the Hype: But a hot market will eventually lead to mistakes.
31 The Big Re-Set The Big Switch Flip The Bi-Polar Market
32 Prices vs. Payments Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, Metro Analysis & Forecast, April 2013 Core marks already above the long-term norm – though we may have a new normal that is still a little concerning. Low mortgage rates leave room to grow – at least for the near term.
33 Make Great Decisions Using Great Analysis email@example.com (916) 647-3263 ? Questions ?