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European Environment Agency June 28th-29th Copenhagen Hungarian Country presentation Sandor Molnar Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

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Presentation on theme: "European Environment Agency June 28th-29th Copenhagen Hungarian Country presentation Sandor Molnar Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change."— Presentation transcript:

1 European Environment Agency June 28th-29th Copenhagen Hungarian Country presentation Sandor Molnar Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

2 Sources used Third National Communication on the Implementation of Commitments under UNFCCC (Committee of Sustainable Development) Hungarian Climate Change Strategy (Ministry of Environmental Protection) Hungarian Climate Change Action Plan (Systemexpert) Hungarian Climate Change Country Study (Systemexpert) Hungarian Power Companies Database (MVM)

3 Present situation of GHG emissions in Hungary and the Kyoto commitments Hungary signed the UN FCCC in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. According to the Kyoto Protocol, Hungary has to keep its anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by 6% below the base level in the period of 2008-2012. With accordance with Article 4.6 Hungary selected the base as the average annual emissions in 1985-1987 as a base level.

4 Hungary’s emissions base Fuel combustion82647.1 Mining5463 Industry1952 Agriculture6855.3 Waste Management6247.5 Forestry-3097 Total100067.9 Table 1. Average emissions in 1985-87 in tons of CO 2 equivalent

5 Total Emissions in Hungary 1985-87199019952002 CO 2 (Mt)83,771,758,761,8 CH 4 (kt)664544797820 N 2 O (kt)171187.8 GWP (Mt)99,882,173,977,9 Table 2. Estimated GHG emissions in 2000

6 Fugitive CH 4 emissions from oil and gas activities 19911992199319941995 oil industry0. gas industry290257274273291 coal mining161124109105106 (Gg) Table 3. Estimated fugitive methane emissions

7 Emission scenarios in the Hungarian Power Sector The Kyoto Commitments and the National Climate Change Strategy made it necesary to develop a baseline in the power sector The Hungarian Power Companies endeavoured to build a top-down baseline for the sector


9 Modeling with ENPEP Complex hierarchical, non-linear market based equilibrium model with policy constraints Provides useful information for DSS –Economic evaluation of an energy project –Energy project’s role in the overall energy system –Economic groth and energy demand requirements –Energy policy evaluation –Energy pricing and tariff development Scenarios for emissions based on Economic growth => demand growth Proportion of fuel imported Capacity additions type, renewable penetration

10 Different scenarios pictured according to different assumptions on the basic variables Demand (smaller, larger) Two demand growth scenarios were examined, a relatively smaller (growth rate of peak load 0,9% per annum, gorwth rate of demand 1%) and a relatively larger (growth rate of peak load: 0,9% until 2005, after it 1,8%, growth rate of demand 1% until 2005, after it 2%) growth rate in the time period examined. Demand base used in 2000: peak load 5750MW, annual demand: 38,5 TWh

11 Time period: 2001-2012-2020 Import (smaller, larger, irrelevant) Import and export: Three different scenarios were outlined, a smaller, a higher, and a minimal rate of import. Typical capacity addition (coal-fired, gas-fired, nuclear) The possible alternatives of the nuclear power plant of Paks were also examined in different scenarios: the prolongation of the NPP’s operation, the fuel switch to gas/oil power plant, and a fuel switch to coal power plant. We assumed that the capacities replacing old ones or being installed as new ones always use the most up-to-date technologies available. Renewable energy utilisation was considered

12 The following charts present the emissions of the capacities to be installed in Hungary in the respective scenarios over time. These are just the major scenarios. An overview of their relation to Coal PP Lignite PP Nuclear PP Gas PP





17 As it was expected, the power sector has a large potential of emission savings, and is able to balance up other sectors of the country if the proper development and extension plan is taking place. A warning sign is however that a larger demand growth and a limited import of electricity can lead near to the commitments Conclusions for the emission scenarios

18 Renewable energy utilisation in 2003 Type of renewable energy sources ElectricityThermal GWhTJTJ Hydro186670 Wind0.923.3 Geothermal3,600 Solar thermal56 Photovoltaics0.060.22 Wood24,000 Other solid waste3,000 Landfill gas27.212 Sludge/sewage gas7.627.4120 Heat pump40 Biomass (vegetal waste)4,870 Waste incineration112403480 Subtotal3091,11136,178 Total (TJ)~37,000 (Bohoczky 2001, Ministry of Economy and Transport 2003)

19 Source: Diana Urge-Vorsatz, 2003

20 Measures for supporting renewables in Hungary In Hungary, the expression ‘utilisation of renewable energy sources’, as a principle of energy policy, appeared only in 1993 when the Parliament approved the new energy policy objectives (Parliament Resolutions 21/1993 (IV.9). Later these principles were confirmed by the Government Resolutions 2199/1999 (VIII.6.), which established the base of liberalisation of energy market and also emphasised the role of renewables in energy production. Direct investment support The legal background for the support of renewables is based on the Energy Savings Strategy and Action Plan, approved by the Parliament in 1999 (1107/1999) and the Electricity Act (CX/2001). An important momentum is that this decree makes it possible for not only companies and municipalities but also the residential sector to apply for financial support. The financial background of the whole program was 1 billion HUF, 10 % of which was earmarked for renewables in 2000-2001.

21 Recommendations Give a clear indication on FiT system for investors: duration, price development. Give schedule for TGC introduction if any. Renewables cause higher risks for the grid operation and performance, this has to be considered and taken into account (increase margin reserves, etc) Due to the strategical importance of the area, research and attention to be paid for more precise analysis Increasing of awareness and conciousness is necessary Lack of official wind-map makes investment in WP hard Governmental action and regulatory steps are needed to be taken

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