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الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 1 Public Attitude Survey: “The Lebanese Choice of Identity.

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Presentation on theme: "الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 1 Public Attitude Survey: “The Lebanese Choice of Identity."— Presentation transcript:

1 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 1 Public Attitude Survey: “The Lebanese Choice of Identity Identifying with Lebanon vs. Identifying with the Religious Communities” 29 July – 1 August 2005 Public Attitude Survey: “The Lebanese Choice of Identity Identifying with Lebanon vs. Identifying with the Religious Communities” 29 July – 1 August 2005

2 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 2 1.At a first glance, the results of the survey may come as a disappointment to many Lebanese. For the survey has found strong evidence of a deep crisis of identity among the people of Lebanon. It should be borne in mind, however, that this crisis reflects decades of weak national leadership, political uncertainty, decay, corruption, disrespect for the constitution and foreign domination. It also reflects the miserable conditions of the official justice, educational and welfare systems, as well as the major role, often financed by state funds, played by the religious establishments in education, social work, health services, justice and politics. Nevertheless, the results of the survey should be viewed as encouraging in that they point out to many significant causes of the identity crisis and some ways to deal with it. 2.In the worst case scenario, i. e. the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, the percentage of Lebanese who continue to hold to their choice of identity as Lebanon first is no less than 27.2%, which is greater than any one single religious community in the country. 3.In the alternative, i. e. in the event of the advent of the rule of law, with equal protection of the law among citizens and the existence of courts that dispense justice with integrity and without discrimination, the percentage of Lebanese who make their choice of identity as Lebanon first rises to 38.6%. Furthermore, this percentage climbs to 44.7% among urban persons whose family register is in Beirut (See Paragraph 6 herein below).

3 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 3 4. There is a direct relationship between the level of schooling and the percentage who adopt Lebanon first as their choice. The unanimous choice of the less educated, i. e. those with elementary schooling or less, is the religious community. This contrasts sharply with over two thirds of those with post graduate education who make their choice Lebanon first. 5. The average percentage of Christians whose choice is Lebanon first is 46.5% which is in contrast with the 25.7% average of Muslims. This goes in parallel with the average percentage of Christians who make their religious community the first choice, which is 20.7%, compared to 48.6% average for Muslims. 6. There is a significant difference between urban dwellers whose civil status register is in Beirut, where the percentage of those who make Lebanon first as their choice is 38.7% (climbing to 44.7% in the event of the rule of law and dropping to 30.1% in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest), and those whose register is outside Beirut, who make 26.7% only (climbing to 30.1% under the rule of law and dropping to 23.6% in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest).

4 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 4 7. The best case scenario for those who identify first with their religious community puts their percentage under 50%. So they never constitute a majority, and certainly not a unified block. In comparison, the Lebanese whose choice is Lebanon first constitute a more cohesive, though much under-represented, block and their percentage varies from 27.2% in the same scenario, the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, and 44.7% in the best case scenario (combining the rule of law and both residency and registration in Beirut). 8. It is therefore abundantly clear that meaningful and major reform will promote the choice of Lebanon first among the Lebanese if achieved in at least the following two areas: a) Upholding the rule of law through equal application of the law under an independent judiciary characterized with competence and integrity. b) Insuring the quality and reach of the national educational system from grade schools to university levels.

5 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 5 9. Any meaningful reform of the elections law should recognize, and duly respect, the above facts in many ways, largely: a) A clear majority of the Lebanese does not favor the religious solution to political representation. b) A significant percentage of the Lebanese refuses to be treated as supporters and willing subjects of the religious communities and makes Lebanon its clear choice. c) Voter registration in the actual place of residence may free the voters from ancestral communal allegiances and foster identification with Lebanon first. d) Hence, the Lebanese citizens who make their choice Lebanon first should not be deprived of their civil right to be represented democratically, outside the domination of the religious communal rules. The fair solution is to give every Lebanese the choice (1) to register for general elections in the place of his actual residence, and (2) to indicate, at the time of registration, his freely chosen first identity, whether national or religious, or both equally, and, consequently, to be enabled to elect his representatives in a voting system that respects his freely expressed choices and assures him of true democratic representation.

6 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 6 The Sample

7 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 7 Description of the Sample The survey was conducted from July 29 to August 1, 2005, among a sample of 600 respondents in the greater Beirut area Males constituted 49.7% and females 50.3% The Respondents Consisted of the following age groups: years old39% years old19.7% years old16.3% years old11.2% years old 8.8% Over 70 years old 5% The percentage of those with civil register registration in Beirut constituted 61.3% According to the level of schooling, the sample consisted of: Grade school or less: 1.2%; intermediate: 12.3%; secondary: 36.5%; college: 45.8%; post graduate: 1.6%; vocational: 2.6%. The margin of error is + or- 1.5%

8 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 8 The survey was conducted from July 29 to August 1, 2005, among a sample of 600 respondents in the greater Beirut area, consisting of the following age groups: years old39% years old19.7% years old16.3% years old11.2% years old 8.8% Over 70 years old 5% Males constituted 49.7% and females 50.3% The percentage of those with civil register registration in Beirut constituted 61.3%

9 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 9 Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (%) Rule: 600 I identify with Lebanon first I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally No response/ I do not know

10 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 10 How the Choice of Identity Changes in the Following Cases (%) I identify with Lebanon first I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally

11 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 11 Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In Accordance with the Communities) (%) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze Lebanon First Community First Lebanon & Religious Community Equally No response/ I do not know Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with religions) (%) Christian Muslim I identify with Lebanon first I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally No response/ I do not know 57.3

12 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 12 Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with place of PS registration) (%) BeirutOther locations I identify with Lebanon first I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally No response/ I do not know VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary Lebanon First Community First Lebanon & Religious Community Equally No Response Do you believe that you are Lebanese first or that your affiliation with your religious community comes before your Lebanese identity? (In accordance with schooling level) (%)

13 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 13 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) Rule: 204 I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 69

14 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 14 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to religious communities) In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to religious communities) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities)

15 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 15 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to schooling level) In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to schooling level) ElementaryIntermediateSecondaryCollegePost-Grad.Vocational I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level) VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

16 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 16 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to the place of PS registration) In the event of conflict between national interest and religious interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to the place of PS registration) BeirutOther locations I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to the place of PS registration) Other locationsBeirut No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

17 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 17 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) Rule: 12 If it changes, how does it change? (%) I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally Rule: 204

18 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 18 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to religious communities) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally

19 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 19 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to schooling level) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level) ElementaryIntermediateSecondaryCollegePost-Grad.Vocational I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

20 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 20 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon first” (%) (According to place of PS registration) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to place of PS registration) BeirutOther locations I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally Other locationsBeirut No it does not change Yes it changes -1.4 I do not know

21 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 21 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND in the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your previous choice change? (%) Rule: 2 If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 2 I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally I identify with my religious community first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 1 Rule: 10 I identify with my religious community first

22 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 22 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 224 I identify with Lebanon first Rule: 36

23 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 23 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to religious communities) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities)

24 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 24 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to schooling level) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level) ElementaryIntermediateSecondaryCollegePost-Grad.Vocational I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

25 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 25 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to place of PS registration) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to place of PS registration) BeirutOther locations I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally Other locationsBeirut No it does not change Yes it changes 2.9- I do not know

26 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 26 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) Rule: 53 If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 224 I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally

27 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 27 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to religious communities ) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities)

28 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 28 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to schooling level) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level) ElementaryIntermediateSecondaryCollegePost-Grad.Vocational I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

29 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 29 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with my religious community first” (%) (According to place of PS registration) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to place of PS registration) BeirutOther locations I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally Other locationsBeirut No it does not change Yes it changes 0.81 I do not know

30 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 30 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND in the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your previous choice change? (%) Rule: 2 If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 19 I identify with Lebanon & my religious community equally I identify with Lebanon first I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 7 Rule: 34 I identify with my religious community first

31 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 31 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 62 I identify with Lebanon first I identify with religious community first Rule: 133

32 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 32 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to religious communities) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze Lebanon first Religious community first

33 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 33 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to schooling level) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level) ElementaryIntermediateSecondaryCollegePost-Grad.Vocational Lebanon first Religious community first VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

34 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 34 In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to the place of PS registration) In the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to the place of PS registration) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to the place of PS registration) BeirutOther locations Lebanon first Religious community first Other locationsBeirut No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

35 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 35 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) Rule: 26 If it changes, how does it change? (%) I identify with Lebanon first I identify with my religious community first I do not know/ No response Rule: 133

36 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 36 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to religious communities) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to religious communities) MaroniteOrthodoxMelkite Armenian Orthodox SunniShiiteDruze Lebanon first Religious community first No response/ I do not know

37 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 37 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to schooling level) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to schooling level) ElementaryIntermediateSecondaryCollegePost-Grad.Vocational Lebanon first Religious community first No response/ I do not know VocationalPost-Grad.CollegeSecondaryIntermediateElementary No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

38 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 38 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, does your following choice change? “I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally” (%) (According to the place of PS registration) If it changes, how does it change? (%) (According to the place of PS registration) BeirutOther locations Lebanon first Religious community first No response/ I do not know Other locationsBeirut No it does not change Yes it changes I do not know

39 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 39 In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. if you come to believe that you enjoy the protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your previous choice change? (%) Rule: 5 If it changes, how does it change? (%) Rule: 21 I identify with Lebanon and my religious community equally I identify with Lebanon first I identify with my religious community first Rule: 2 I identify with my religious community first I do not know/No response

40 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 40 Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon to other choices * Case One: Conflict between national interest and religious communal interest Ratio of the respondents who made their choice Lebanon first: 34% Ratio of respondents who would change their choice in such event: 33.8% Ratio of change from Lebanon first to other choices: 34% of 33.8%=11.5% Hence the ratio of the Lebanon first choice becomes 34%-11.5%= 22.5% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon and their religious community equally: 23.2% This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon and their religious community equally by 23.2% of 11.5%=2.7% Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and their religious community equally becomes: 22.3%+2.7%= 25% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first: 76.8% This reduces the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 76.8% of 11.5% =8.8% Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+ 8.8%= 46.1% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 22.5% Religious community first: 46.1% Lebanon and religious community equally:25%.

41 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 41 * Case Two: Upholding the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination Ratio of change in such event from Lebanon first to other choices:5.9% of 34% =2% Hence the ratio of the Lebanon first choice becomes 34%-2%= 32% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon and their religious community equally: 83.3% This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon and their religious community equally by 83.3% of 2%=1.7% Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and their religious community equally becomes: 22.3%+1.7%= 24% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first: 16.7% This increases the ratio of those who identify with their religious community first by 16.7% of 2% =0.3% Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+0.3= 37.6% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 32% Religious community first: 37.6% Lebanon and religious community equally:24%. Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon to other choices

42 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 42 Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon to other choices * Case Three: In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your previous choice change? ** A ** Choice of the religious community first: 16.7% Changes 100%, so that the ratio of change is 16.7% A 100% change so that the ratio of Lebanon and the religious community equally choice increases by 16.7% Hence the ratio of this choice group rises: 24%+16.7%=40.7%. And the ratio of the choice of religious community group drops: 37.6%-16.7%=20.9% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 32% Religious community first: 20.9% Lebanon and religious community equally:40.7%.

43 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 43 Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon to other choices ** B ** Choice of Lebanon and religious community equally:83.3% Changes by 10%, or 8.3% Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes: 37.6%+8.3%=45.9%. And he ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and the religious community equally becomes: 24%-8.3%=16.7% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 32% Religious community first: 45.9% Lebanon and religious community equally:15.7%.

44 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 44 Changes of Choice of Identity from the Religious Community to other choices Ratio of the respondents with the choice of the religious community first:37.3% Ratio of the respondents who wish to change their choice in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest:16.1% Change from the religious community choice to other choices is 16.1% of 37.3%=6% Ratio of the choice of religious community group drops to: 37.6%-6%=31.3% Ratio of those who wish to change their choice to Lebanon and the religious community equally in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest is 50%. Ratio of the choice of Lebanon and the religious community equally increases by 50% of 6%=3% Hence the ratio of the choice of Lebanon and the religious community equally rises to: 22.3%+3%=25.3%. Ratio of those who wish to change their choice to Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest:50% Ratio of the choice of Lebanon first increases by 50% of 6%=3% Hence the ratio of the choice of Lebanon first rises to: 34%+3%=37%. The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 37% Religious community first: 31.3% Lebanon and religious community equally:25.3%.

45 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 45 * Case Two: Upholding the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination Ratio of change in such event from religious community first to other choices:23.7% of 37.3% =8.8% Hence the ratio of the religious community first choice becomes 37.3%-8.8%= 28.5% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon and their religious community equally in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 64.2% This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon and their religious community equally by 64.2% of 8.8%=5.7% Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon and their religious community equally becomes: 22.3%+5.7%= 28% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 35.8% This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 35.8% of 8.8% =3.2% Hence the ratio of those identifying Lebanon first becomes 34%+3.2%= 37.2% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 37.2% Religious community first: 28.5% Lebanon and religious community equally:28%. Changes of Choice of Identity from the Religious Community to other choices

46 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 46 * Case Three: In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your previous choice change? ** A ** Choice of Lebanon first: 35.8% Changes by 10.5%, so that the ratio of change equals 10.5% of 35.8%=3.8% Ratio of choice of Lebanon first drops: 35.8%-3.8%=33.4% Change to choice of religious community first:50% Ratio of change: 50% of 3.8%=1.9% Ratio of choice of Lebanon and the religious community equally increases to: 28%+1.9%=29.9% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 37.2% Religious community first: 41.7% Lebanon and religious community equally:14.8%. Changes of Choice of Identity from the Religious Community to other choices

47 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 47 * Case One: Conflict between national interest and religious communal interest Ratio of the respondents who made their choice Lebanon and religious communities equally: 22.3% Ratio of respondents who would change their choice in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 46.6% Ratio of change from Lebanon and religious communities equally to other choices: 22.3% of 46.6%=10.4% Hence the ratio of the Lebanon and religious communities equally choice becomes 22.3%-10.4%= 11.9% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 16.1% This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 16.1% of 10.4%=1.7% Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon first becomes: 34%+1.7%= 35.7% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 83.9% This increases the ratio of those who identify with the religious communities first by 83.9% of 10.7% =8.7% Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+ 8.7%= 46% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 35.7% Religious community first: 46% Lebanon and religious community equally:11.9%. Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon and the Religious Community equally to other choices

48 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 48 * Case Two: Upholding the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination Ratio of change in such event from Lebanon and the religious communities equally to other choices:19.5% of 22.3% =4.3% Hence the ratio of the Lebanon and the religious communities equally choice drops to: 22.3%-4.3%= 18% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become Lebanon first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 80.8% This increases the ratio of those who identify with Lebanon first by 8o.8% of 4.3%=13.5% Hence the ratio of those identifying with Lebanon first rises to: 34%+3.5%= 37.5% Ratio of those wishing to change their identity choice to become their religious community first in the event of conflict between national interest and religious communal interest: 7.7% This increases the ratio of those who identify with their religious community first by 7.7% of 4.3% =0.3% Hence the ratio of those identifying with their religious community first becomes 37.3%+0.3= 37.6% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 37.5% Religious community first: 37.6% Lebanon and religious community equally:18%. Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon and the Religious Community equally to other choices

49 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 49 * Case Three: In the event of the upholding of the rule of law, i. e. protection of the law applied equally to all Lebanese without discrimination, in the presence of courts of justice that dispense justice to everyone equally without discrimination, AND the event of a clear conflict between national interest and religious communal interest, does your previous choice change? ** A ** Choice of Lebanon first:80.8% Changes by 23.8%, so that the ratio of change equals 80.8% of 23.8%=19.2% Ratio of choice of Lebanon first drops: 37.5%-19.2%=18.3% Change to choice of religious community first:40% Ratio of change: 0% of 19.2%=7.7% Ratio of the religious community first choice increases to: 37.6%+7.7%=45.3% Change to choice of Lebanon and religious communities equally:40% Ratio of change:40% of 19.2%=7.7% Ratio of the Lebanon and religious community equally choice rises to:18%-7.7%=10.3% The choices of identity thus become: Lebanon first: 18.3% Religious community first: 45.3% Lebanon and religious community equally:10.3%. Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon and the Religious Community equally to other choices

50 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL October 2005 / Page 50 ** B ** Choice of the religious community first: 7.7%, without change. Hence the earlier results in the prior case remain the same: Lebanon first: 37.5% Religious community first: 37.6% Lebanon and religious community equally:18%. Note: The percentages of the various choices under the above described variable events were computed as pluses and minuses and resulted in the percentages displayed in the figure on Page 10 Changes of Choice of Identity from Lebanon and the Religious Community equally to other choices

51 الدولية للمعلومات ش. م. ل. و مد - حق CDRL & Information International SAL P. O. Box: , Beirut – Lebanon Phone: /9 Fax: Website: 202 Idriss Bldg., Sorati St., Hamra Beirut Lebanon Phone: Fax: Website:


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