Presentation on theme: "Jump-starting housing supply CIH Harrogate Conference 20 June 2011 Nigel Hugill Executive Chairman, Urban&Civic and Chair, Centre for Cities Five minutes."— Presentation transcript:
Jump-starting housing supply CIH Harrogate Conference 20 June 2011 Nigel Hugill Executive Chairman, Urban&Civic and Chair, Centre for Cities Five minutes of statistics and assertions
Lending to UK consumers secured against their homes and financing our Housing Associations is amongst the safest banking business in the world “House repossessions to rise in 2012. CML warns” Source:Council for Mortgage Lenders Repossessions Mortgage arrears BBC, June 2011 No. of repossessions on mortgaged properties (000s) Mortgage arrears (% of mortgage loans outstanding) CML estimates for 2011/2012 (my money is on both being a little lower)
Owned outrightBuying with mortgageTotal % owned outright% buying mortgage 1996/975,1618,43413,59438%62% 1997/985,3058,59913,90438%62% 1998/995,3378,61213,94938%62% 1999/005,5278,66514,19239%61% 2000/015,5798,85814,41739%61% 2001/025,8308,45614,28641%59% 2002/035,8828,50414,38641%59% 2003/046,0228,52314,54541%59% 2004/056,2218,30014,52043%57% 2005/066,4118,14414,55544%56% 2006/076,3318,07214,40344%56% 2007/086,5767,88814,46445%55% 2008/096,7517,85114,60246%54% Source:Survey of English Housing Flat national house price statistics obscure genuinely fundamental underlying trends Trends in owner occupation in England – 1996 to 2009 A decade like never before: low interest rates have impacted more in expediting repayments than in staving off repossessions
Homeowners less indebted but also appreciably older Source:Deputy for Communities and Local Government Owner occupation (and housing wealth) is increasingly concentrated into the hands of the over 45’s (and they all have votes) 38.3% 38.5% 37.2% 36.1% 35.2% 35.0% 33.5% 33.0% 32.5% 30.7% 37.3% 37.5% 37.8% 38.4% 38.7% 38.8% 39.8% 40.1% 40.0% 40.2% 24.4% 24.0% 25.0% 25.6% 26.1% 26.7% 26.9% 27.5% 29.1% 0%20%40%60%80%100% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 under 4445 to 64over 65 UK homeowners:
Warwick Cambridge London Southampton Bristol 1 job Centre for Cities identifies two more divisions Source:Nomis 2010, Centre for Cities Net private sector job creation 1998 to 2008 Over an apparently expansive decade, 10 private sector jobs were created in a southern pentagon for every 1 in the rest of England 10 jobs
Source:Halifax HPI, Q1 1994 = 100 and Q1 2002 = 100 Sharply differentiated regional house price dynamics under Ken Clark and Gordon Brown 1994 to 2002 – regional divide south outperforms north 2002 to 2008 – the gap narrows as outperforms reverses North South East (excluding London) North South East (excluding London) Unequivocal signs that the cycle has reversed once more, both in terms of prices and housing transactions
Not a fair world: access to capital accentuates investment performance Source:Hometrack Percentage of year-on-year change as proportion of house purchases Housing advantage has accrued disproportionately to 45+ year olds in the south of the country with better access to capital
Kate Barker’s aspiration to build into affordability has absolutely not taken place Source:Hometrack Affordable Private New houses are not getting cheaper: they are just not getting built 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000200120022003200420052006200720092008 Private Affordable 20102011 Rolling 12 month UK housing statistics Private Affordable
Estimated £5bn of first time buyer deposits in both 2009 and 2010 benefited from Royal Bank of Parents. Similarly, private landlords invested £15bn (equity and debt) in 2010 buy to let investment. Figures dwarf institutional investment (say, £4bn of pipeline PRSI). Maybe we have been looking in the wrong place (JC Flowers). Regional dynamics limit private sector capacity to provide affordable contribution. Clear conflict with new localism; southern pentagon residents unlikely to prioritise social housing. Large scale institutional investment in affordable more likely to come from ownership, unless HA’s elect for new index linked funding. HA management expertise, rather than access to capital, may carry greater competitive advantage in current cycle. Sector to own less and manage more. To prompt debate...
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