Presentation on theme: "The Electrification Coalition Revolutionizing Transportation and Achieving Energy Security."— Presentation transcript:
The Electrification Coalition Revolutionizing Transportation and Achieving Energy Security
› From a national perspective, transport electrification is an energy and economic security imperative. For consumers and businesses, it is emerging as a viable medium-term investment. › The U.S. is at a pivotal moment in energy security policy. Oil prices are recovering from a recession-induced collapse, and are being driven up by geopolitical factors we do not control. Why Electrification? Electrification of transportation has received considerable bipartisan support as a core component of emerging U.S. energy security policy. 1 BENCHMARK SPOT CRUDE OIL PRICES
› From a national perspective, transport electrification is an energy and economic security imperative. For consumers and businesses, it is emerging as a viable medium-term investment. › The U.S. is at a pivotal moment in energy security policy. Oil prices are recovering from a recession-induced collapse, and are being driven up by geopolitical factors we do not control. Why Electrification? Electrification of transportation has received considerable bipartisan support as a core component of emerging U.S. energy security policy. 2 CRUDE OIL COSTS: SHARE OF U.S. GDP Source: BP, plc, Statistical Review of World Energy 2010; DOE, EIA; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
3 LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE STOCK VEHICLE PRODUCTION, U.S. AND CHINA (HISTORICAL) Source: Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable EnergySource: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009 Emerging markets are expected to account for 100 percent of future oil demand growth. This is largely driven by the transportation sector. Global Demand Drivers › In 2009, China surpassed the United States to become the largest auto market in the world. › As vehicle sales increase exponentially, the number of cars on the road in China is soaring.
Constrained Resource Access Oil prices are set in an open market, but that does not mean there is a free market for oil supply. › More than 90 percent of global proved oil reserves are held by national oil companies (NOCs) that are either partially or fully controlled by governments. › The top 13 oil and gas reserve holders are all NOCs. TOP OIL AND GAS FIRMS BY PROVED RESERVES 4 Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008
Petroleum fuels account for approximately 40 percent of U.S. primary energy demand, more than any other fuel. › Approximately 70 percent of U.S. oil consumption occurs in the transportation sector, with 40 percent in light-duty vehicles. › Transportation is 94 percent reliant on oil-based fuel for energy, with no scaled substitutes. 5 U.S. PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND, 2009PETROLEUM FUEL DEMAND BY SECTOR, 2009 U.S. Oil Dependence
6 U.S. Oil Dependence: Imports U.S. OIL CONSUMPTION (HISTORICAL AND FORECAST) › Net imports, once a small fraction of U.S. supplies, currently meet more than half of total U.S. liquid fuel demand. › Uncertainty exists about future import levels. Current DOE forecasts show imports falling as domestic supplies increase. U.S. oil supplies are acquired from a variety of sources, including domestic crude oil and natural gas liquids, biofuels, refinery gains, and imports.
7 U.S. Oil Dependence: Economic Costs U.S. PETROLEUM TRADE DEFICIT (HISTORICAL AND FORECAST) › The portion of the trade deficit driven by petroleum imports generally exceeds the imbalance we run in other goods and services with trade partners like China, NAFTA, and the EU. › A high trade deficit exerts downward pressure on the dollar, which in turn may be helping to prop up oil prices, resulting in a vicious circle. On a month-to-month basis, petroleum imports have typically accounted for about half of the total U.S. trade deficit since the end of 2007.
› Electricity is generated from a diverse portfolio of domestic fuels. › Electricity prices are stable. › The power sector has substantial spare capacity. › The network of infrastructure already exists. Features of the Electric Power Sector 8 Electrification of transportation is the best solution for sharply reducing U.S. oil dependence. Source: EIA, AEO 2010 U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL, 2010U.S. ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR, 2010
A new generation of grid-enabled vehicles (GEVs) reached U.S. markets in North American production will ramp up in Grid-Enabled Vehicles: Production Capacity ANNOUNCED NORTH AMERICAN GEV PRODUCTION CAPACITY 9 › The industry is beginning to scale up. Announced North American production capacity will already exceed 100,000 vehicles in › These figures do not include trucks. › Additional volumes will reach the U.S. market from OEM plants overseas, particularly in the next two years. Source: PRTM Estimates
Government and industry expectations for GEVs currently vary widely. Sales share estimates range from 1 to 10 percent—or more—by Baseline Market Forecasts FORECAST EV AND PHEV PENETRATION IN 2020 (UNITED STATES) › Forecast variance mostly emanates from different assumptions regarding the pace of battery/component cost reductions. › Energy cost forecasts; lack of infrastructure; assumed future environmental policy; and guesses about consumer acceptance also play a role. 10 Source: PRTM Estimates
Electrification Overview: Challenges › Batteries and Vehicles With the advent of lithium-ion battery technology, the largest obstacle to widespread consumer adoption of these vehicles will be cost, though performance and raw material supply chains are also important to consider. Need innovative business models, manufacturing scale in gen-1/2, and R&D for Gen-3. › Charging Infrastructure A profitable business model for public charging points has not been reliably demonstrated, and we do not yet know how much public charging will be needed. › Electric Power Sector Interface While “smart” charging will make electric vehicles an asset to the grid, “dumb” charging will make them a liability. › Consumer Acceptance GEVs represent a significant shift in technology. In order to change mainstream consumer attitudes, GEVs must offer a compelling alternative to conventional IC engines on either cost or performance grounds. 11 While electrification has promise as an energy strategy, it can only succeed if GEVs are attractive to the mass market and can integrate into the grid.
Cost Reduction Scenarios Capital costs are currently the largest obstacle to electric vehicle adoption. However, battery and component costs are falling as gasoline prices rise. PAYBACK PERIOD FOR A PHEV-40 (INCLUDING ARRA INCENTIVES) 12 › As battery costs come down, the value proposition will get stronger. By mid- decade, PHEVs and EVs could present drivers with an economically compelling option. › The pace at which this happens depends on a variety of assumptions. › Consumers typically want a 3-year payback for investments in efficiency.
13 Electric Drive Ecosystem A complete electric drive ecosystem has a myriad of stakeholders, not simply OEMs and consumers. Utilities, dealers and others will have a role.
› A deployment community approach would initially concentrate amplified financial incentives for consumers, infrastructure providers and utilities into a limited number of regions. The number of communities would expand over time in multiple phases. › Regions would be selected on a competitive basis. The most attractive regional bids would demonstrate a clear path to successful integration of GEVs, including: › A supportive regulatory environment that facilitates concepts like utility investment in upgraded physical and IT assets; time of use pricing; and a seamless process for permitting and installing level II EVSEs in residential consumer garages. › Support and participation from a broad swath of stakeholders, including state and local governments, utilities, utility regulators, large local employers, universities and others. To overcome these challenges, lawmakers should initiate an ambitious program to support deployment into a limited number of communities. 14 FEATURES AND ADVANTAGES OF DEPLOYMENT COMMUNITY APPROACH Key Policy: Deployment Communities
› Focusing on targeted regional deployment accomplishes at least three objectives: 1. Demonstrate Proof of Concept for Consumers 2. Facilitate Learning by Doing 3. Maximize Investment Payoff › Grid-enabled vehicles require a network built on public-private coordination in order to thrive. Technology promotion has to be about more than throwing money at a problem. › The deployment community approach recognizes that a widespread national rollout without careful planning will reduce the likelihood that GEVs can penetrate the mass market, instead being relegated to niche market status (as has happened with hybrid vehicles, 1.6 million of which have been sold over the past 11 years out of a light-duty fleet of 250 million vehicles). Key Policy: Deployment Communities To overcome these challenges, lawmakers should initiate an ambitious program to support mass deployment in a limited number of communities. 15 FEATURES AND ADVANTAGES OF DEPLOYMENT COMMUNITY APPROACH
The Near Term Opportunity: Fleet Vehicles The economics of electric transport will appeal to certain fleets very early. There is a huge opportunity for the battery industry to scale up this way. VEHICLES IN OPERATION BY TYPE (2009)VEHICLES IN OPERATION BY CLASS (2009) › There were more than 16 million vehicles in operation in commercial and government fleets at year-end 2009.
Fleet Electrification Roadmap Commercial and government fleets are likely to be near-term adopters of grid-enabled vehicles, driving important early volume in the battery industry. ADVANTAGES OF FLEETS AND FLEET OPERATORS FOR ELECTRIFICATION When asked, fleet managers rank total cost of vehicle ownership as the most significant factor driving acquisition decisions. Total Cost of Ownership Approach Route predictability allows for minimal investment in public charging infrastructure as well as right-sized batteries. Route Predictability High vehicle utilization rates increase the number of miles traveled, accelerating the payback period on GEVs for many fleet operators. High Utilization Rates Use of a central parking facility could allow some fleet operators to minimize investment in public charging and benefit from economies of scale in installation. Use of Central Parking Facilities The lower maintenance and service costs of GEVs will represent a substantial cost savings for high-mileage fleets. Importance of Maintenance Costs Access to commercial and industrial electricity rates—which are significantly lower than residential rates—will increase GEV fuel savings for fleets. Low Electricity Rates With access to capital and significant purchasing power, fleets may benefit from a number of alternative business models supporting electrification. Alternative Business Models Commercial and government enterprises may consider GEVs in the context of corporate sustainability initiatives designed to reduce emissions or oil use. Corporate Sustainability Initiatives 17
Fleet Electrification Roadmap The Fleet Roadmap was designed as a supplement to the original Roadmap. The report outlines a path to high GEV adoption in fleets. KEY RECOMMENDATIONS KEY FINDINGS › Even without government subsidies, traditional hybrids are the most cost-effective option for many fleets today. › Falling battery and component costs begin to favor GEVs by mid-decade. › EVs and PHEVs become the most cost-effective option between 2016 and 2020— assuming no incentives. › Battery residual risk will be a key obstacle to adoption of GEVs. › All tax credits should be transferable. › Extend the benefits of “deployment communities” to light-duty vehicles operated by fleets. › Create GEV tax credits for trucks as follows: $15,000 for class 3; $20,000 for class 4-5; $25,000 for class 6-7. › Phase credits out after › Clean renewable energy bonds for fleet charging infrastructure. › Battery residual value guarantee. 18
Fleet Electrification Roadmap Targeted, temporary tax credits for all vehicle classes could put more than 200,000 GEVs on the road in commercial and government fleets by FLEET GEV SALES SCENARIOS 19 FLEET GEV PARC SCENARIOS › The EC policy case includes existing tax credits for light-duty vehicles as well as new credits for medium- and heavy-duty trucks. The credits phase out after 2015, reaching zero in 2020.