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David A. Penn, Director Business and Economic Research Center Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University 1.

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Presentation on theme: "David A. Penn, Director Business and Economic Research Center Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 David A. Penn, Director Business and Economic Research Center Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University 1

2 Snapshot for Nashville MSA Jobs: still growing, but much more slowly Unemployment rate: down, then up Manufacturing: doing nicely, thank you Housing: much, much better Government jobs: still a drag Taxable sales: off to the races 2

3 Nashville MSA at a Glance (July 2012) 3 IndicatorsYear Ago This Month Year to Year % Change Total Nonfarm Employment (thousand) Labor Force (thousand) Unemployed (thousand) Unemployment Rate (percent) State Sales Tax Collections (million $) Single Family Unit Housing Permits Total Housing Permits

4 Tennessee at a Glance (July 2012) 4 IndicatorsYear Ago This Month Year to Year % Change Total Nonfarm Employment (thousand) 2, , Labor Force (thousand) 3, , Unemployed (thousand) Unemployment Rate (percent) State Sales Tax Collections (million $) Single Family Unit Housing Permits 819 1, Total Housing Permits 919 1,

5 Nonfarm job growth Nashville MSA 5 Job growth slowing, down to 0.9% over the year

6 Job Gains and Losses Nashville MSA (2 nd quarter over the year) 6 Sector Job growth (thousand) Growth Rate Total Nonfarm % Professional and Business Services7.16.8% Leisure and Hospitality2.32.9% Durable Goods Manufacturing2.04.8% Retail Trade1.51.8% Other Services1.23.7% Financial Activities0.40.8% Information % Mining, Logging, and Construction % Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing % Transportation and Utilities % Education and Health Services % Wholesale Trade % Government %

7 Job Gains and Losses Tennessee (2 nd quarter over the year) 7 Sector Job growth (thousand) Growth Rate Total nonfarm % Durable Goods Manufacturing % Government % Education and Health Services7.31.9% Professional and Business Services6.62.1% Mining, Logging, and Construction5.95.4% Leisure and Hospitality3.41.3% Retail Trade1.50.5% Other Services0.30.3% Information0.20.5% Transportation and Utilities % Financial Activities % Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing % Wholesale Trade %

8 Nashville Sectors Construction: job growth cooling off Manufacturing: still a leader Financial activities: breaking even (finally) Wholesale trade and Education and Health care: losing ground; problem because of size Government: will downsizing cease? 8

9 Construction jobs Cooling this year Drop in commercial construction Jobs for housing construction not apparent yet 9

10 Manufacturing Gains coming out of the recession Up 4,000 since 2010 Flat in

11 Manufacturing: new locations Automakers earn dollars for sales, but must pay for labor and supplies in yen And they are getting fewer yen per dollar in the foreign exchange markets 11 Solution: build more plants in the U.S. Nissan-Smyrna will benefit greatly

12 More cause for concern 12 Negative job growth for this important sector Fewer education jobs and possibly job losses in hospitals

13 Unemployment rate 13 Low of 6.4% in March. Presently at 7.3%. Why is the Nashville unemployment rate climbing?

14 Labor force Nashville MSA 14 July drop in employment Job seekers up sharply since March

15 Initial claims 15 Claims rising following improvement in 2011 Higher claims caused by increased layoffs Level of claims remains low

16 Underutilization Tennessee The official unemployment rate understates labor force utilization Measures of underutilization Official unemployment rate: 8.5% U6 rate of underutilization: 13.8%, including working part-time for economic reasons 16

17 Why the slowdown? Problems in the euro zone European recession reduces demand for Tennessee manufactured goods Quick turnaround unlikely Uncertainty regarding fiscal policy Public budget cutbacks 17

18 State Sales Tax Collections Nashville MSA 18 Collections exceed the pre-recession level Purchasing power lags; still 6.8% lower

19 Sales Growth in Tennessee 19 Growth of Sales Taxable Spending nd Quarter Category Spending Growth Building materials15.7% General merchandise6.7% Food stores3.8% Auto dealers8.2% Apparel6.9% Furniture and home furnishings-0.7% Eating and drinking6.3% Misc.2.7% Total Retail5.3%

20 Housing: much, much better Housing prices level, rising some locations Construction activity growing quickly Home sales rising fast Foreclosures moderating Mortgages in distress falling Renewed in-migration is needed to sustain new construction 20

21 Housing price growth 21 HPI growth positive for First time since 2008

22 Housing price growth (zoom in) 22 HPI growth positive for

23 Housing price growth (2012.2) 23 Source: housing price index

24 Tennessee foreclosures 24 Past due mortgages improving New foreclosures fluctuating around 0.95 percent Data: Mortgage Banker’s Association

25 Home sales Nashville Area 25 Up 27% from last August Still far to go Longer perspective

26 Home inventory Nashville Area 26 Inventory is falling fast this year Supply of homes low compared with demand 5.5 month supply on hand

27 Housing construction Nashville MSA 27 Single- family 41% higher over the year

28 Single-family construction (May-July) 28 85% of Nashville MSA growth occurred in these four counties

29 Housing construction Tennessee 29

30 Slowing down? 30

31 Slowing down? 31

32 Slowing down? 32

33 Slowing down? 33

34 Slowing down? 34

35 Slowing down? 35 IndicatorDirection Initial claimsRising Nonfarm employmentSlowing Unemployment rateRising Housing constructionSlowing Sales tax collectionsSlowing

36 Picking up steam 36

37 Picking up steam 37

38 Picking up steam 38

39 Picking up steam 39

40 Expectations for Nashville MSA* Nonfarm employment: slower growth Sales tax collections: rising more slowly Housing construction: mildly rising Unemployment rate: drifting lower Nashville growth predicated on moderate growth for the U.S. economy 40 *Assuming fiscal cliff is fixed

41 Economy stepping on the breaks? 41 Fiscal Cliff

42 1941 John Doe threatens to jump off city hall to protest high unemployment 1941 unemployment rate: 10.9% 42

43 Players John Doe 43 Reporter Bad guy

44 Will he jump? 44

45 Will John Economy tumble off the fiscal cliff? 45

46 Will John Economy tumble off the fiscal cliff? 46 You are here Fiscal Cliff

47 Fiscal Cliff Impact: Congressional Budget Office Real GDP will likely be 0.5% lower over the year Unemployment rate will rise to 9.1% from 8.2% 47

48 Expectations for Nashville MSA with full Fiscal Cliff impacts Nonfarm employment: shrinking Sales tax collections: falling Housing construction: flat to falling Unemployment rate: sharply rising 48

49 BERC Estimates: Fiscal Cliff Impact Expected unemployment rates fourth quarter 2013: Tennessee: 9.3% (8.4% July 2012) Nashville MSA: 8.5% (7.3% July 2012) Return to the present unemployment rate will likely not occur before mid

50 Tracking Tennessee’s Economic Recovery 50 Statewide and all 10 MSAs. Employment Unemployment Housing construction Housing prices Taxable sales County data “Tracking Tennessee’s Economic Recovery”

51 Tennessee Housing Market Report 51 Quarterly report on construction, sales, prices.

52 Studies 52 Affordable housing International trade and green jobs APSU economic impact analysis Southwest Development District Impact of non-profits Impact of new natural gas pipeline to Atlanta


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