Presentation on theme: "Demographic Transition Model 10/8"— Presentation transcript:
1 Demographic Transition Model 10/8 Bell-ringer:What information is this graph displaying?Give one fact that you can determine from this graph?
2 Stages in Classic 4-Stage Demographic Transition Model (DTM) (Some mention a new 5th stage)
3 Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial” High birth rates and high death rates (both about 40)NIR = 0 or very slow rateNo country or world region still in Stage One. STAGE ONE – Agrarian society, lots of deaths from famine and disease.
4 Stage 2: “Early Industrial” High birth rates (over 30) but death rates begin to decline (to about 20)NIRs increase sharply (pop. explosion); growth rate increases throughout Stage TwoGrowth not from increase in births, but from decline in deathsMDCs = starts early 1800sLDCs = starts after 1950s
5 Why move from Stage 1 to Stage 2? REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would more people live longer (lower CDR), NOT why would more people be born (higher CBR)?
6 Stage 3: “Later Industrial” Birth rates decline sharply (to about 15) and Death rates decline a bit more (to about 10 or less)Pop. Growth occurs, but at a reduced and declining rateMDCs = starts in late 1800sLDCs = starts after 1980s** Or hasn’t started yet
7 Why move from Stage 2 to Stage 3? REMEMBER – the question is…. Why would the birth rate drop rapidly once the CDR has been reduced?Why would this happen at different times in MDC and LDC?
8 Stage 4: “Post-Industrial” Birth rates and death rates both low (about 10)Population growth very low or zero (ZPG – zero population growth)MDCs = starts after 1970sLDCs = hasn’t started yetMuch of Europe now or soon in population declineas birth rates drop far below replacement level
9 Population Pyramids: 5 things you notice. What does this image show you?
10 Analyze this graph: 5 things you notice Analyze this graph: 5 things you notice. What is DIFFERENT about this pyramid?
11 Vertical axis: Age groups Elderly DependentsWorking populationsYoung dependentsHorizontal Axis:Percentage/number people
12 Dependency Ratio – Ratio of dependents to the working population SO WHAT?