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**Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning**

Chapter 3: Linear models for regression

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**Linear Basis Function Models (1)**

Example: Polynomial Curve Fitting

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**Sum-of-Squares Error Function**

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0th Order Polynomial

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1st Order Polynomial

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3rd Order Polynomial

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9th Order Polynomial

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**Linear Basis Function Models (2)**

Generally where Áj(x) are known as basis functions. Typically, Á0(x) = 1, so that w0 acts as a bias. In the simplest case, we use linear basis functions : Ád(x) = xd.

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**Linear Basis Function Models (3)**

Polynomial basis functions: These are global; a small change in x affect all basis functions.

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**Linear Basis Function Models (4)**

Gaussian basis functions: These are local; a small change in x only affect nearby basis functions. ¹j and s control location and scale (width).

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**Linear Basis Function Models (5)**

Sigmoidal basis functions: where Also these are local; a small change in x only affect nearby basis functions. ¹j and s control location and scale (slope).

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**Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares (1)**

Assume observations from a deterministic function with added Gaussian noise: which is the same as saying, Given observed inputs, , and targets, , we obtain the likelihood function where

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**Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares (2)**

Taking the logarithm, we get where is the sum-of-squares error.

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**Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares (3)**

Computing the gradient and setting it to zero yields Solving for w, we get where The Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse,

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**Maximum Likelihood and Least Squares (4)**

Maximizing with respect to the bias, w0, alone, we see that We can also maximize with respect to ¯, giving

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**Geometry of Least Squares**

Consider S is spanned by . wML minimizes the distance between t and its orthogonal projection on S, i.e. y. N-dimensional M-dimensional

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Sequential Learning Data items considered one at a time (a.k.a. online learning); use stochastic (sequential) gradient descent: This is known as the least-mean-squares (LMS) algorithm. Issue: how to choose ´?

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1st Order Polynomial

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3rd Order Polynomial

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9th Order Polynomial

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Over-fitting Root-Mean-Square (RMS) Error:

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**Polynomial Coefficients**

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**Regularized Least Squares (1)**

Consider the error function: With the sum-of-squares error function and a quadratic regularizer, we get which is minimized by Data term + Regularization term ¸ is called the regularization coefficient.

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**Regularized Least Squares (1)**

Is it true that or

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**Regularized Least Squares (2)**

With a more general regularizer, we have Lasso Quadratic

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**Regularized Least Squares (3)**

Lasso tends to generate sparser solutions than a quadratic regularizer.

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**Understanding Lasso Regularizer**

Lasso regularizer plays the role of thresholding

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Multiple Outputs (1) Analogously to the single output case we have: Given observed inputs, , and targets, , we obtain the log likelihood function

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Multiple Outputs (2) Maximizing with respect to W, we obtain If we consider a single target variable, tk, we see that where , which is identical with the single output case.

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**The Bias-Variance Decomposition (1)**

Recall the expected squared loss, where The second term of E[L] corresponds to the noise inherent in the random variable t. What about the first term?

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**The Bias-Variance Decomposition (2)**

Suppose we were given multiple data sets, each of size N. Any particular data set, D, will give a particular function y(x;D). We then have

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**The Bias-Variance Decomposition (3)**

Taking the expectation over D yields

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**The Bias-Variance Decomposition (4)**

Thus we can write where

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**Bias-Variance Tradeoff**

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**The Bias-Variance Decomposition (5)**

Example: 25 data sets from the sinusoidal, varying the degree of regularization, ¸.

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**The Bias-Variance Decomposition (6)**

Example: 25 data sets from the sinusoidal, varying the degree of regularization, ¸.

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**The Bias-Variance Decomposition (7)**

Example: 25 data sets from the sinusoidal, varying the degree of regularization, ¸.

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**The Bias-Variance Trade-off**

From these plots, we note that an over-regularized model (large ¸) will have a high bias, while an under-regularized model (small ¸) will have a high variance.

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**Bayesian Linear Regression (1)**

Define a conjugate prior over w Combining this with the likelihood function and using results for marginal and conditional Gaussian distributions, gives the posterior where

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**Bayesian Linear Regression (2)**

A common choice for the prior is for which Next we consider an example …

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**Bayesian Linear Regression (3)**

0 data points observed Prior Data Space

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**Bayesian Linear Regression (4)**

1 data point observed Likelihood Posterior Data Space

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**Bayesian Linear Regression (5)**

2 data points observed Likelihood Posterior Data Space

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**Bayesian Linear Regression (6)**

20 data points observed Likelihood Posterior Data Space

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**Predictive Distribution (1)**

Predict t for new values of x by integrating over w: where

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**Predictive Distribution (1)**

How to compute the predictive distribution ?

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**Predictive Distribution (2)**

Example: Sinusoidal data, 9 Gaussian basis functions, 1 data point

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**Predictive Distribution (3)**

Example: Sinusoidal data, 9 Gaussian basis functions, 2 data points

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**Predictive Distribution (4)**

Example: Sinusoidal data, 9 Gaussian basis functions, 4 data points

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**Predictive Distribution (5)**

Example: Sinusoidal data, 9 Gaussian basis functions, 25 data points

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**Salesman’s Problem Given a consumer a described by a vector x**

a product b to sell with base cost c estimated price distribution of b in the mind of a is Pr(t|x, w) = N(xTw, 2) What is price should we offer to a ?

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Salesman’s Problem

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (1)**

How do we choose the ‘right’ model?

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (1)**

How do we choose the ‘right’ model? Assume we want to compare models Mi, i=1, …,L, using data D; this requires computing Posterior Prior Model evidence or marginal likelihood

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (1)**

How do we choose the ‘right’ model? Posterior Prior Model evidence or marginal likelihood

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (3)**

For a model with parameters w, we get the model evidence by marginalizing over w

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (4)**

For a given model with a single parameter, w, con-sider the approximation where the posterior is assumed to be sharply peaked.

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (4)**

For a given model with a single parameter, w, con-sider the approximation where the posterior is assumed to be sharply peaked.

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (5)**

Taking logarithms, we obtain With M parameters, all assumed to have the same ratio , we get Negative Negative and linear in M.

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (5)**

Data matching Model Complexity

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**Bayesian Model Comparison (6)**

Matching data and model complexity

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What You Should Know Least square and its maximum likelihood interpretation Sequential learning for regression Regularization and its effect Bayesian regression Predictive distribution Bias variance tradeoff Bayesian model selection

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