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Chapter 10 ©2010  Worth Publishers Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Slides created by Dr. Amy Scott.

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Presentation on theme: "Chapter 10 ©2010  Worth Publishers Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Slides created by Dr. Amy Scott."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chapter 10 ©2010  Worth Publishers Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Slides created by Dr. Amy Scott

2 1.The aggregate demand curve 2.The aggregate supply curve 3.Long-run vs. Short-run aggregate supply curve 4.How the AS–AD model is used to analyze economic fluctuations 5.How monetary policy and fiscal policy can stabilize the economy Chapter Objectives

3 Aggregate Demand  The aggregate demand curve shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output demanded by households (C), businesses (I), the government (G) and the rest of the world (NX = EX – IM). GDP = C + I + G + NX

4 Real GDP (billions of 2000 dollars) Aggregate price level (GDP deflator, 2000 = 100) Aggregate demand curve, AD A movement down the AD curve leads to a lower aggregate price level and higher aggregate output The Aggregate Demand Curve

5  Wealth effect of a change in the aggregate price level—a higher aggregate price level reduces the purchasing power of households’ wealth and reduces consumer spending.  Interest rate effect of a change in the aggregate price level—a higher aggregate price level reduces the purchasing power of households’ money holdings, leading to a rise in interest rates and a fall in investment spending and consumer spending. The Aggregate Demand Curve: Downward Sloping – Two Reasons

6 Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve  The aggregate demand curve shifts because of: changes in expectations wealth the stock of physical capital government policies  fiscal policy  monetary policy

7 AD Real GDP Aggregate price level (a) Rightward Shift (b) Leftward Shift Aggregate price level Increase in aggregate demand Decrease in aggregate demand Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve

8 Factors That Shift the Aggregate Demand Curve Changes in expectations If consumers and firms become more optimistic, …aggregate demand increases. If consumers and firms become more pessimistic, aggregate demand decreases. Changes in wealth If the real value of household assets rises, ………..aggregate demand increases. If the real value of household assets falls, ………..aggregate demand decreases. Size of the existing stock of physical capital If the existing stock of physical capital is relatively small,.. aggregate demand increases. If the existing stock of physical capital is relatively large,..aggregate demand decreases. Fiscal policy If the government increases spending or cuts taxes,......aggregate demand increases. If the government reduces spending or raises taxes,.... aggregate demand decreases. Monetary policy If the central bank increases the quantity of money,......aggregate demand increases. If the central bank reduces the quantity of money, aggregate demand decreases

9  One reason AD curve slopes down is due to the wealth effect.  But we just explained that changes in wealth lead to a shift of the AD curve.  Aren’t those two explanations contradictory? Which one is it?  The answer is both: it depends on the source of the change in wealth.  A movement along the AD curve occurs when a change in the aggregate price level changes the purchasing power of consumers’ existing wealth (the real value of their assets).  This is the wealth effect of a change in the aggregate price level— a change in the aggregate price level is the source of the change in wealth.  A change in wealth independent of a change in price level shifts the aggregate demand curve. Changes in Wealth: A Movement Along versus a Shift of the Aggregate Demand Curve

10  When looking at the data it’s hard to tell the difference between a movement along the aggregate demand curve and a shift of the aggregate demand curve.  In 2008 it was crystal clear. Spending by households and firms fell which caused the aggregate demand curve to shift to the left. As a result, GDP fell by over 2%.  In response the Federal Reserve increased the quantity of money which lead to a decrease in interest rates (the prime rate fell from 7.5% in 2007 to 3.25% in 2008).  These moves resulted in the aggregate demand curve shifting again–to the right and GDP rose by 5.2% in 2009 and the CPI rose by 3.2%. Exactly the response we would expect. Shifts of the Aggregate Demand Curve

11 A rise in the interest rate caused by a change in monetary policy causes: 1. a movement up along the aggregate demand curve. 2. a movement down along the aggregate demand curve. 3. a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. 4. a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve.

12 A fall in the real value of money in the economy due to a higher price level causes: 1. a movement up along the aggregate demand curve. 2. a movement down along the aggregate demand curve. 3. a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. 4. a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve.

13 Expectations of a poor job market next year causes: 1. a movement up along the aggregate demand curve. 2. a movement down along the aggregate demand curve. 3. a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. 4. a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve.

14 A fall in tax rates causes: 1. a movement up along the aggregate demand curve. 2. a movement down along the aggregate demand curve. 3. a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. 4. a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve.

15 A rise in the real value of assets in the economy due to a lower price level causes: 1. a movement up along the aggregate demand curve. 2. a movement down along the aggregate demand curve. 3. a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. 4. a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve.

16 A rise in the real value of assets in the economy due to a surge in real estate values causes: 1. a movement (increase) along the aggregate demand curve. 2. a movement (decrease) along the aggregate demand curve. 3. a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. 4. a rightward shift of the aggregate demand curve.

17  The aggregate supply curve shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output in the economy. Aggregate Supply

18 The Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve  The short-run aggregate supply curve is upward- sloping because nominal wages are sticky in the short run: a higher aggregate price level leads to higher profits and increased aggregate output in the short run.  The nominal wage is the dollar amount of the wage paid.  Sticky wages are nominal wages that are slow to fall even in the face of high unemployment and slow to rise even in the face of labor shortages.

19 0865 Real GDP (billions of 2000 dollars) Aggregate price level (GDP deflator, 2000 = 100) Short-run aggregate supply curve, SRAS A movement down the SRAS curve leads to deflation and lower aggregate output. The Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

20  Data on wages and prices is mixed.  Some nominal wages are flexible in the short run because some workers are not covered by a contract or agreement with employers.  Since some nominal wages are sticky but others are flexible, we observe that the average nominal wage—the nominal wage averaged over all workers in the economy—falls when there is a steep rise in unemployment.  On the other side, some prices of final goods and services are sticky rather than flexible. Some firms, particularly the makers of luxury or name-brand goods, are reluctant to cut prices even when demand falls. Instead they prefer to cut output even if their profit per unit hasn’t declined.  This doesn’t change the basic picture: the short-run aggregate supply curve is still upward sloping. What’s Truly Flexible, What’s Truly Sticky

21 Real GDP Aggregate price level Real GDP SRAS 2 Decrease in short- run aggregate supply Increase in short- run aggregate supply (a) Leftward Shift (b) Rightward Shift SRAS Shifts of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

22  Changes in commodity prices nominal wages productivity  lead to changes in producers’ profits and shift the short-run aggregate supply curve.

23 Factors that Shift Short-Run Aggregate Supply Changes in commodity prices If commodity prices fall, short-run aggregate supply increases. If commodity prices rise, short-run aggregate supply decreases. Changes in nominal wages If nominal wages fall, short-run aggregate supply increases. If nominal wages rise, short-run aggregate supply decreases. Changes in productivity If workers become more productive,... short-run aggregate supply increases. If workers become less productive,.... short-run aggregate supply decreases

24  The long-run aggregate supply curve shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied that would exist if all prices, including nominal wages, were fully flexible.  Potential output is the level of real GDP the economy would produce if all prices, including nominal wages, were fully flexible Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

25 15.0 0$800 Real GDP (billions of 2000 dollars) Aggregate price level (GDP deflator, 2000 = 100) Potential output, YP Long-run aggregate supply curve, LRAS 7.5 A fall in the aggregate price level… …leaves the quantity of aggregate output supplied unchanged in the long run. Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

26 Actual and Potential Output from 1989 to 2010

27 Economic Growth Shifts the LRAS Curve Rightward

28 Y 1 Y P P 1 LRAS SR 1 Y 1 Y P P 1 SR 1 LR A1A1 Real GDP Aggregate price level Real GDP Aggregate price level SRAS 2 A rise in nominal wages shifts SRAS eftward. SRAS 2 A fall in nominal wages shifts SRAS rightward. (a) Leftward Shift of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve (b) Rightward Shift of the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve A1A1 From the Short Run to the Long Run

29  We’ve used the term long run in two different contexts. In an earlier chapter we focused on long-run economic growth: growth that takes place over decades.  In this chapter we introduced the long-run aggregate supply curve, which depicts the economy’s potential output: the level of aggregate output that the economy would produce if all prices, including nominal wages, were fully flexible.  It might seem that we’re using the same term, long run, for two different concepts. But we aren’t: these two concepts are really the same thing.  Because the economy always tends to return to potential output in the long run, actual aggregate output fluctuates around potential output, rarely getting too far from it. As a result, the economy’s rate of growth over long periods of time—say, decades—is very close to the rate of growth of potential output. And potential output growth is determined by the factors we analyzed in the chapter on long-run economic growth.  So that means that the “long run” of long-run growth and the “long run” of the long-run aggregate supply curve coincide. Are We There yet? What the Long Run Really Means

30 Prices and Output During the Great Depression

31 A rise in CPI leads producers to increase output. This represents a: 1. shift in the SRAS curve. 2. movement along the SRAS curve.

32 A fall in the price of oil leads producers to increase output. This represents a: 1. shift in the SRAS curve. 2. movement along the SRAS curve.

33 A rise in legally mandated retirement benefits paid to workers leads producers to reduce output. This represents a: 1. shift in the SRAS curve. 2. movement along the SRAS curve.

34 Assume that an economy is initially at potential output. The aggregate output supplied increases due to an increase in aggregate price level. This represents a: 1. shift in the SRAS curve. 2. movement along the SRAS curve.

35 The AS–AD Model  The AS-AD model uses the aggregate supply curve and the aggregate demand curve together to analyze economic fluctuations.

36 Short-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium  The economy is in short-run macroeconomic equilibrium when the quantity of aggregate output supplied is equal to the quantity demanded.  The short-run equilibrium aggregate price level is the aggregate price level in the short-run macroeconomic equilibrium.  Short-run equilibrium aggregate output is the quantity of aggregate output produced in the short- run macroeconomic equilibrium.

37 Y E P E E SR SRAS AD Real GDP Aggregate price level Short-run macroeconomic equilibrium The AS–AD Model

38 Shocks  Demand Shock is an event that shifts the Aggregate Demand curve  Supply Shock is an event that shifts the short- run Aggregate Supply curve  Stagflation is the combination of inflation and falling aggregate output

39 Y 2 2 P 2 AD 2 A negative demand shock... Y 1 E 1 E SRAS AD 1 Y 1 2 E 1 SRAS AD 1 P 1 P 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level Real GDP Aggregate price level...leads to a lower aggregate price level and lower aggregate output....leads to a higher aggregate price level and higher aggregate output. (a) A Negative Demand Shock(b) A Positive Demand Shock E P 2 Y 2 AD 2 A positive demand shock... Shifts of Aggregate Demand: Short-Run Effects

40 P 1 AD Y 1 E 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level (a) A Negative Supply Shock Shifts of the SRAS Curve SRA S 1 Y 2 2 E P 2 2 Y 1 1 AD E 2 E SRAS P 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level (a) A Positive Supply Shock P 2 Y 2 SRA S 2 1 A negative supply shock......leads to a lower aggregate output and a higher aggregate price level....leads to a higher aggregate output and lower aggregate price level. A positive supply shock...

41 The Supply Shock of

42 Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium  The economy is in long-run macroeconomic equilibrium when the point of short-run macroeconomic equilibrium is on the long-run aggregate supply curve.

43 Y P P E SRAS LR AD E LR Real GDP Aggregate price level Long-run macroeconomic equilibrium Potential output Long-Run Macroeconomic Equilibrium

44 Y 1 P E 1 2 SRAS 1 LR AD 1 Real GDP Aggregate price level Potential output E 3 P 3 SRAS 2 3. …until an eventual fall in nominal wages in the long run increases short-run aggregate supply and moves the economy back to potential output …reduces the aggregate price level and aggregate output and leads to higher unemployment in the short run… AD 2 Recessionary gap Y 2 E 1. An initial negative demand shock… 1 P Short-Run Versus Long- Run Effects of a Negative Demand Shock

45 Y 1 P 3 E 3 E1E1 P 1 P SRAS 1 LR AD Real GDP Aggregate price level Potential output SRAS 2 3…until an eventual rise in nominal wages in the long run reduces short-run aggregate supply and moves the economy back to potential output. AD 2 1.An initial positive demand shock… Inflationary gap Y 2 2 E 2 2. …increases the aggregate price level and aggregate output and reduces unemployment in the short run… 1 Short-Run Versus Long-Run Effects of a Positive Demand Shock

46 Gap Recap  There is a recessionary gap when aggregate output is below potential output.  There is an inflationary gap when aggregate output is above potential output.  The output gap is the percentage difference between actual aggregate output and potential output.

47 Gap Recap  The economy is self-correcting when shocks to aggregate demand affect aggregate output in the short run, but not the long run.

48  The AD–AS model says that either a negative demand shock or a positive supply shock should lead to a fall in the aggregate price level—that is, deflation. In fact, however, the United States hasn’t experienced an actual fall in the aggregate price level since  What happened to the deflation?  The basic answer is that since World War II economic fluctuations have taken place around a long-run inflationary trend. Before the war, it was common for prices to fall during recessions, but since then negative demand shocks have been reflected in a decline in the rate of inflation rather than an actual fall in prices.  A very severe negative demand shock could still bring deflation, which is what happened in Japan. Where’s the Deflation?

49 Negative Supply Shocks  Negative supply shocks pose a policy dilemma: a policy that stabilizes aggregate output by increasing aggregate demand will lead to inflation, but a policy that stabilizes prices by reducing aggregate demand will deepen the output slump.

50 Negative Supply Shocks Are Relatively Rare but Nasty

51  Recessions are mainly caused by demand shocks. But when a negative supply shock does happen, the resulting recession tends to be particularly severe.  There’s a reason the aftermath of a supply shock tends to be particularly severe for the economy: macroeconomic policy has a much harder time dealing with supply shocks than with demand shocks.  The reason the Federal Reserve was having a hard time in 2008, as described in the opening story, was the fact that in early 2008 the U.S. economy was in a recession partially caused by a supply shock (although it was also facing a demand shock). Supply Shocks versus Demand Shocks in Practice

52 The government sharply increases the minimum wage, raising the wages of many workers. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level. 1. increase; increase 2. decrease; decrease 3. increase; decrease 4. decrease; increase

53 Telecommunications companies launch a major program of investment spending. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level. 1. increase; increase 2. decrease; decrease 3. increase; decrease 4. decrease; increase

54 Congress raises taxes and cuts spending. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level. 1. increase; increase 2. decrease; decrease 3. increase; decrease 4. decrease; increase

55 Severe weather destroys crops around the world. This causes a(n) ______ in output as measured by real GDP and a(n) ______ in the price level. 1. increase; increase 2. decrease; decrease 3. increase; decrease 4. decrease; increase

56 True or False? A rise in productivity increases potential output, but demand for the additional output will be insufficient in the long run. 1. True 2. False

57 Macroeconomic Policy  Economy is self-correcting in the long run.  Most economists think it takes a decade or longer!!!  John Maynard Keynes: “In the long run we are all dead.”  Stabilization policy is the use of government policy to reduce the severity of recessions and rein in excessively strong expansions.

58  The British economist Sir John Maynard Keynes (1883– 1946), probably more than any other single economist, created the modern field of macroeconomics.  In 1923 Keynes published A Tract on Monetary Reform, a small book on the economic problems of Europe after World War I.  In it he decried the tendency of many of his colleagues to focus on how things work out in the long run: “This long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the sea is flat again.” Keynes and the Long Run

59 Macroeconomic Policy  The high cost—in terms of unemployment—of a recessionary gap and the future adverse consequences of an inflationary gap  Active stabilization policy, using fiscal or monetary policy to offset shocks.

60 Macroeconomic Policy  Policy in the face of supply shocks: There are no easy policies to shift the short- run aggregate supply curve. Policy dilemma: a policy that counteracts the fall in aggregate output by increasing aggregate demand will lead to higher inflation, but a policy that counteracts inflation by reducing aggregate demand will deepen the output slump.

61  Has the economy actually become more stable since the government began trying to stabilize it?  Yes. Data from the pre-World War II era are less reliable than more modern data, but there still seems to be a clear reduction in the size of economic fluctuations.  It’s possible that the greater stability of the economy reflects good luck rather than policy.  But on the face of it, the evidence suggests that stabilization policy is indeed stabilizing. Is Stabilization Policy Stabilizing?

62 “Expansionary monetary or fiscal policy does nothing but temporarily over stimulate the economy—you have a brief high, but then you have the pain of inflation.” Which statement below best describes how the AS- AD model represents this statement? 1. The policy causes the AD curve to shift to the right, causing aggregate price and output to rise. After a period of time nominal wages rise, shifting the AS curve to the left until output falls back to potential output. 2. The policy causes a movement along the AD curve which increases prices. After time the prices fall back to their initial levels. 3. The policy causes the AS curve to shift to the right causing prices and output to rise. After a period of time nominal wages rise and output falls back to potential output but prices remain elevated.

63 True or False? In 2008, after the collapse of the housing bubble and the sharp rise in the price of commodities, especially oil, the appropriate policy for the Fed was to lower interest rates. 1. True 2. False 3. Uncertain

64 1.The aggregate demand curve is the relationship between aggregate price level and quantity of aggregate output demanded. 2.The aggregate demand curve is downward sloping because of the wealth effect–a higher aggregate price level reduces the purchasing power of households’ wealth and reduces consumer spending and the interest rate effect – a higher aggregate price level reduces the purchasing power of households’ and firms’ money holdings, leading to a rise in interest rates and a fall in investment spending and consumer spending. 3.The aggregate demand curve shifts because of changes in expectations, changes in wealth and the effect of the size of the existing stock of physical capital. Policy makers can use fiscal policy and monetary policy to shift the aggregate demand curve. Summary 1 of 4

65 4.The aggregate supply curve is the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied. 5.The short-run aggregate supply curve is upward sloping because nominal wages are sticky in the short run. 6.Changes in commodity prices, nominal wages, and productivity lead to changes in producers’ profits and shift the short-run aggregate supply curve. 7.In the long run, all prices are flexible and the economy produces at its potential output. So the long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical at potential output. Summary 2 of 4

66 8.The intersection of the short-run aggregate supply curve and the aggregate demand curve is the short-run macroeconomic equilibrium which determines short-run equilibrium aggregate price level and short-run equilibrium aggregate output. 9.Economic fluctuations occur because of a shift of the aggregate demand curve (a demand shock) or the short-run aggregate supply curve (a supply shock). A particularly nasty occurrence is stagflation—inflation and falling aggregate output—which is caused by a negative supply shock. Summary 3 of 4

67 10.A recessionary gap is when aggregate output is less than potential output. An inflationary gap is when aggregate output is greater than potential output. 11.The high cost—in terms of unemployment—of a recessionary gap and the future adverse consequences of an inflationary gap lead many economists to advocate active stabilization policy: using fiscal or monetary policy to offset demand shocks. 12.Negative supply shocks pose a policy dilemma: a policy that counteracts the fall in aggregate output by increasing aggregate demand will lead to higher inflation, but a policy that counteracts inflation by reducing aggregate demand will deepen the output slump. Summary 4 of 4


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