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1 Citizens League Higher Education Phase I Steering Committee Meeting #3: July 12.

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1 1 Citizens League Higher Education Phase I Steering Committee Meeting #3: July 12

2 To consider whether the economy and employments are facing a “breakpoint” of discontinuous change that requires transformational change in higher education To imagine and design what higher education might look like in this new economic world 2 Today’s objectives

3 Introductions Breakpoint Change discussion Small group design Evaluation 3 Today’s agenda

4 Change Itself Has Changed! Change actually follows patterns of momentous, seemingly unpredictable and abrupt shift At breakpoint, the rule change is so sharp that use of old rules not only doesn’t work, it acts as a barrier to success Nature parts with the past 4

5 Breakpoint: The Cycle of Growth and Change 5 Phase 1: Exploring and Inventing the Pattern Phase 2: Extending and Improving Phase 3: Integrating the New and Different Breakpoints

6 Change Itself Has Changed! 6 DateInvention Yrs to Mass Use 1873Electricity46 1876Telephone35 1886Gas Automobile55 1906 Radio22 1926Television26 1975 PC16 1983 Mobile Phone13 1994The Web4

7 “Modifications of our thinking patterns will not work. This new era requires a radical rethinking of the most basic and foundational ways we view the world.” --Breakpoint and Beyond, Mastering the Future Today, 1992 7

8 Breakpoint Principles (1)Create what has never existed before (2)Make deep and powerful interdependent connections with one another (3)Be pulled into a new kind of future, not pushed by the past 8

9 Are We at a Breakpoint? From Saturday (July 9) NYT: The unemployment rate rise to 9.2%. “Economists were stunned.” “This fall, for the first time, the University of California will take in more from student tuition than state finances.” Regarding the last shuttle flight: “These days, my pet fantasy for exploring the universe is downloading human consciousness to machines.” 9

10 10 The workforce is aging Retirements will increase sharply The number of new, young labor force entrants will decline The workforce will grow much more slowly Economic growth will depend increasingly on productivity growth January 2011 Marked The Beginning Of A New Demographic Era First Impacts Will Be Felt In The Workforce & Economic Growth

11 Minnesota’s Labor Force Is Aging In 1990, the peak was 30; in 2009 it was 46 1990, 2007 ACS, smoothed 3 year averages

12 Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply

13 Some Other Considerations In The Labor Market More retirees and fewer younger workers should improve opportunities for job seekers But employers may respond in other ways 1. Increase focus on productivity gains, filling jobs on less than a one-for-one basis 2. Relocate jobs to other, more favorable labor markets 3. Recruit workers from other markets Alternative responses may be heightened with a growing skills mismatch.

14 The Old Normal + The Great Recession + Long Run Demographic Changes = The New Normal

15 Forces for change are heightened during periods of economic stress Wholesale program changes will happen Disruptive changes are not evolutionary Some game changers will occur There will be short term losers as well as winners A set of new opportunities are revealed Creative Destruction/Disruptive Innovation Will Occur

16 Knowledge of mechanical and electrical engineering processes Ability to work with computerized systems Ability to read and write machine programming code Ability to read manufacturing blueprints Ability to operate automated manufacturing systems Understanding of hydraulic, pneumatic, and electrical systems What are some of the skills that modern manufacturers look for?

17 Small Group Exercise Six Scenarios: Two Students Jose: 3 years old, first generation immigrant. Parents speak limited English and have manual labor employment. Sheila: 3 years old. Parents are a university professor and corporate executive.

18 Future Employment Assembly worker Attorney Has no idea!

19 Concept Design Assignment: Design a learning path for this student, based on the selected occupation. 1.What assumptions about the future are you basing your design on? (e.g., demographic, fiscal, economic, technology) 2.What skills and knowledge will the student have acquired from K-12? 3.How does the student gain an understanding of the knowledge/skills needed to make sound career/education choices? 4.Describe the interface between employment and education. 5.What does the student’s post-secondary education look like— how is it delivered; when? 6.How much does post-secondary cost and who pays for it?

20 Six Scenarios: Rules 1.Forget your pet ideas. 2.As unknowable as the future is, base your concept on realistic assumptions for the future (e.g., demographic change, crazy changes in technology, institutional capacities for change). 3.Design something you’d be proud of. 4.Don’t get tripped up in the details of implementation. 5.Have fun!

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