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Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 1 Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session.

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Presentation on theme: "Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 1 Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session."— Presentation transcript:

1 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 1 Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice Rome February 2004 CEREALS RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AND SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.2

2 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 2 World Cereal Market Prospects: From Abundance to Tightness? Utilization Production million tonnes

3 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 3 Cereal production rose slightly in 2003, driven by bigger rice and coarse grain outputs but... million tonnes

4 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 4 Global wheat production fell for second consecutive year... million tonnes Europe down 54mt, to 156mt World down 8mt, to 562mt

5 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 5 million tonnes Sharp fall in world cereal stocks... mostly driven by China

6 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 6 Export Supplies tight?

7 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 7 World trade to contract further... million tonnes

8 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 8 M.E. Many new wheat exporters... Major Exporters Other Exporters 99/0098/9900/0101/0202/0303/04 USA Australia Canada EU Argentina Ukraine Turkey Hungary Bulgaria Russian F. Turkey Ukraine Kazakhstan Czech R. Bulgaria Ukraine Russian F Kazakhstan India Hungary India Ukraine Kazakhstan Russian F. Hungary USA Canada Australia EU Argentina USA Canada Australia EU Argentina USA Australia Canada Argentina EU India Kazakhstan Mexico Turkey Hungary USA EU Canada Australia Argentina % Share O.E USA Canada Australia Argentina EU Kazakhstan India Russian F. China Turkey

9 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 9 Wheat supplies among emerging exporters and EU fall sharply... million tonnes

10 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 10 M.E. Also many new maize/barley exporters Major Exporters Other Exporters 99/0098/9900/0101/0202/0303/04 % Share O.E USA Argentina EU Australia Canada USA EU Argentina Australia Canada USA Argentina EU Australia Canada USA Argentina EU Australia Canada USA Argentina EU Australia Canada China Ukraine Hungary S. Africa Turkey China Kazakhstan Bulgaria Ukraine Hungary China Brazil Hungary S. Africa Ukraine China Brazil Russian F. Hungary Ukraine China Ukraine Brazil Russian F. Hungary USA Argentina EU Australia Canada China Brazil Russian F. Ukraine S. Africa

11 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 11 Coarse grain supplies among most emerging exporters and EU fall sharply... million tonnes

12 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 12 In many countries, tight situation and rising domestic prices resulted in lowering and/or removing import duties as well as introducing export restrictions – here are some examples: Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Pakistan, Ukraine reduced/removed duty on imports; EU reshuffled the tariffs rate import quota for low-medium quality wheat to allow more imports from North America; Russia, Croatia, Poland introduced/raised duty on exports, Ukraine increased railway tariffs (+10%) to discourage exports, etc… India halted wheat and rice exports since August 2003

13 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 13 Among the leading rice exporters, record shipments are expected from Thailand million tonnes

14 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 14 For the LIFDCs, cereal import bill could decline slightly... billion US$ (forecast)

15 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 15 Grain export prices started showing some strength since November 2003 Wheat (U.S. No. 2 Hard Winter, fob) U.S.$/tonne Maize (U.S. No. 2 Yellow, fob) U.S.$/tonne

16 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 16 May wheat and maize futures well above previous year

17 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 17 In 2003 rice prices were mostly above 2002 levels

18 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 18 What about prospects for 2004/05? Cereal Utilization 2004/05 Cereal Production 2004 million tonnes

19 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 19 SUMMARY

20 Recent Market Developments and Short-Term Outlook S. 20 More in food outlook and......Thank You


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