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Home Loans Market share analysis July 2010 Prepared : Wilfred Geldenhuys Strictly confidential.

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Presentation on theme: "Home Loans Market share analysis July 2010 Prepared : Wilfred Geldenhuys Strictly confidential."— Presentation transcript:

1 Home Loans Market share analysis July 2010 Prepared : Wilfred Geldenhuys Strictly confidential

2 Market share as per Deeds Office : National Market share on new bonds decreased quite sharply to 22.1%. Standard Bank still dominant in terms of new loan registrations. We still only have two regions above the 25% mark, Central & Western Cape, but to the contrary we’ve got 3 regions below 20%. No clear direction as we’ve got 3 regions increasing in share and 3 regions declining. Acquisitions decline by almost 2%, and declined in all three categories. The figure for the YTD compared to the previous years, and in all three categories, declining alarmingly. In terms of what’s happening with our retention figure, this declining tendency is a very serious concern. Standard Bank still the market leader in terms of new registrations, and by a considerable margin. All 6 there regions are above the 25% share in new loans, with 4 above the 30%. FNB declined marginally in share in terms of new loans, while Nedbank is relative stable around their current level. The outflow of business (Retention) figure increased to over 32%, the highest level in history. The retention of business is a serious concern, particularly the level of negative switches from our book. Net Registration and Net Gain both decreased sharply, due to both a lower acquisition figure as well as a higher share of outflow. The increase in the gap between new loans registered and bonds cancelled /sold, as well as the increase in gap between positive and negative switches is a grave concern.

3 Market share as per Deeds Office : Central Region Region increased their share of new loans registered quite steeply, but still lost the leading position in this region to Standard Bank. This is the only region with a share in new registrations of over 30% for the month. For the YTD, compared to 2009, region declined by almost 5% in share of new registrations. Acquisitions increased, with only positive switches decreasing from the previous month. We’re still seeing lower levels than in 2009 in all three categories for the YTD, specially in terms of new registrations. Standard Bank increased very sharply sharply in terms of new registrations, in the process gaining the leading position. FNB and Nedbank both decreased in term of share of new registrations. The outflow of business (Retention) figure increased alarmingly, with negative switches at extremely high levels. Bonds cancelled/sold and negative switches still at very high levels for the YTD. Net Gain unchanged, but Net Registrations increased sharply due to better first bond registrations and a better bonds Cancelled/sold figure. The gap between positive and negative switches is a concern.

4 Market share as per Deeds Office : Eastern Cape Market share on new bonds decreased sharply, reaching it’s lowest level in history. Also now in third place behind FNB. This is the 3 rd lowest share of new registrations for the month of any region. YTD performance still lags the achievement of Total acquisitions increased due to the strong performance of FA’s. The gap between positive and negative switches is a concern. Standard Bank increased their share in new registrations, and remain the undisputed leader in this region. FNB decreased, but gained the 2 nd position from ABSA for the month, whilst Nedbank decreased marginally. The outflow of business (Retention) decreased sharply, despite still being at relative high levels. Retention for the YTD also higher than in the past, and in all three categories. Net Gain increased sharply due to the lower retention figure. Net Registrations decreased due to a weaker performance in new registrations. The gap between new registrations and cancellations, as well as the gap between positive and negative switches, is a concern.

5 Market share as per Deeds Office : Gauteng Market share on new bonds decreased sharply, the 2 nd consecutive decline. Region lost their 2 nd place in the region to FNB. This is the lowest share of new registrations of any region. The YTD performance also lagging and a big concern. Total acquisitions decreased, despite the stronger performance in FA’s. For the YTD we’re also seeing a much lower share of acquisition, performing weaker in all three categories. Standard bank decreased marginally in terms of share, but remain the leader in new registrations by a considerable margin. Nedbank stable around current levels, but FNB regained some share after the record low in May, in the process also passing ABSA. The outflow of business (Retention) increased, with only negative switches performing marginally better. Bonds cancelled/sold at a particular high level this month. Net Registration and net gained decreased due to the lower acquisition figure as well as a higher retention figure. The increase in the gap between positive & negative switches is a serious concern, also the monthly gap between new registrations and bonds cancelled/sod.

6 Market share as per Deeds Office : KZN Market share on new bonds increased marginally after the low the previous month. This is the 2 nd lowest level of new registrations of any region. Current levels of new registrations, both for the month and the YTD, well below the levels achieved in the previous years. Total acquisitions increased slightly after the low in June, only declining in positive switches. This is the lowest level of acquisition of any region. Both new registrations and FA’s for the YTD, compared to 2009, is a concern. Standard Bank cementing themselves as the leaders in this region, despite losing some share this month. FNB lost some share, whilst Nedbank increased by 5% after the record low in June. The outflow of business (Retention) unfortunately increased sharply. Current levels of bonds cancelled/closed and negative switches is a concern. All three categories also increased for the YTD compared to Net Gain & Net registations increased marginally as a result of the stronger performance in acquisitions. The gap in share between new loans registered and bonds cancelled/sold, as well as between positive and negative switches is a concern.

7 Market share as per Deeds Office : Northern Region Market share on new bonds increased for the 3 rd consecutive month. Region stable around the current levels for the past few months. Total acquisitions increased despite the weaker performance in FA’s. The YTD performance, compared to 2009, is a concern, declining quite sharply in all three categories. Standard Bank increased by 3.5%, and retain the leading place in new registrations. FNB lost more than 2% in share of new registrations, reaching their lowest level for the YTD. Nedbank decreased sharply by almost 4% after the high in June. The outflow of business (Retention) figure increased sharply, with the level of bonds cancelled/sold at dangerously high levels. For the YTD we’re seeing an increase compared to previous years in all three categories. Net Gain decreased due to a weaker performance in retention. This is the 2 nd lowest net gain figure in history. Net registrations decreased despite to the better performance in new registrations. Both these figures still at very low levels, specially compared to previous years. The gap in share between new loans and bonds cancelled/sold as well as positive and negative switches is a big concern.

8 Market share as per Deeds Office : Western Cape Market share on new bonds decreased sharply after a series of gains, in the process losing the leading position to Standard Bank. The region with the 2 nd highest share of new registrations of our regions. The YTD figure declining sharply compared to previous years. Total acquisitions decreased with weaker performances in all three categories. Again, also the YTD performance much lower than previous years, and in all three categories. Standard Bank increased by 1%, gaining the leading position in this region. FNB increasing sharply after the record low in June. Nedbank gained another 1%, reaching their highest level for the YTD, the 2 nd record in high in as many months. The outflow of business (Retention) figure increased due to the higher level of bonds cancelled/sold and negative switches. The YTD figure also increasing compared to previous years, with bonds paid up and negative switches a serious concern. Net Gain & Net registrations decreased due to weaker performances in both acquisition and retention. The increasing in the gap between acquisitions and the outflow business is a serious concern, both for the month and the YTD.


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