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The North Sea AHTS market 15 th of May Rigg-Flytt i praksis, Bergen.

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Presentation on theme: "The North Sea AHTS market 15 th of May Rigg-Flytt i praksis, Bergen."— Presentation transcript:

1 The North Sea AHTS market 15 th of May Rigg-Flytt i praksis, Bergen

2 North Sea AHTS spot-rates 2 Weekly Annual averages

3 North-Sea term rates: AHTS and PSV 3

4 Total North Sea AHTS utilisation currently at low levels 4 Supply, demand and utilisation rate: AHTS

5 Smaller vessels have been squeezed out of the North Sea market 5 AHTS demand by size category (bhp)

6 Only vessels >12,000 bhp included Servicing rigs main driver of AHTS demand – North Sea (2011-12) 6 Term work (2011-12) Spot work (1496 fixtures)

7 Dayrates correlated with size and work type (>12,000bhp) 7 Average spot rate (2011-12) by work type

8 North-Sea: Rig moves driving spot work 8 Spot fixtures vs spot work Only vessels >12,000 bhp included

9 North-Sea rigs: Supply, demand and utilization 9 Norway - Jackup Other North-Sea - Jackup Norway - Floater Other North-Sea: Floater

10 Market Drivers – Jackup Activity Norway 10 IN NORWAY ENTERING INTO A CONTRACT IN NORWAY AVAILABLE AoC RIG Mostly large jackups (~CJ70) contribute to growth Large jackups require also larger AHTS vessels 201320142015 16MAERSK XL ENHANCED 3 - 2Q (STATOIL)16 15MAERSK INTERCEPTOR - Q4 (DET NORSKE)MAERSK INTERCEPTOR15 14MAERSK INTREPID - 3Q (TOTAL)MAERSK INTREPID14 13ROWAN STAVANGER - 3Q (LUNDIN)ROWAN STAVANGER13 12WEST LINUS - 1Q (CONOCOPHILLIPS)WEST LINUS12 11ROWAN VIKING - 3Q (LUNDIN)ROWAN VIKING11 10ROWAN GORILLA 6 - 4Q (CONOCOPHILLIPS)ROWAN GORILLA 6ROWAN GORILLA 710 9ROWAN NORWAY - CONOCOPHILLIPSROWAN NORWA 9 8MAERSK GIANT - DONG/TALISMAN/DET NORSKE/REPSOL/CENTRICAMAERSK GIANT 8 7MAERSK GUARDIAN - LUNDINMAERSK GUARDIAN 7 6MAERSK REACHER - BPMAERSK REACHER 6 5WEST EPSILON - STATOILWEST EPSILON 5 4MAERSK INSPIRER - STATOILMAERSK INSPIRER 4 3MAERSK GALLANT - CONOCOPHILLIPSMAERSK GALLANT 3 2WEST ELARA - STATOILWEST ELARA 2 1MAERSK INNOVATOR - CONOCOPHILLIPSMAERSK INNOVATOR 1

11 Market Drivers – Floater Activity Norway 11 IN NORWAY ENTERING INTO A CONTRACT IN NORWAY AVAILABLE AoC RIG Only newbuilds and modern units are entering the NCS The majority of these semi-submersibles are both CM and DP 201320142015 37SS WEST PHOENIX - DP - POTENTIAL 2Q37 36SS WEST RIGEL - DP/CM - POTENTIAL 1Q36 35SS COSLPROSPECTOR - DP/CM - POTENTIAL 1Q35 34SS HENRY GOODRICH - CM - POTENTIAL34 33SS EIRIK RAUDE - DP/CM - POTENTIAL33 32SS SONGA ENABLER - DP/CM - 3Q (STATOIL)32 31SS HENRY GOODRICH - CM - POTENTIAL 3QSS SONGA EENCOURAGE - DP/CM - 2Q (STATOIL)31 30SS EIRIK RAUDE - DP/CM - POTENTIALSS SONGA ENDURANCE - DP/CM - 1Q (STATOIL)30 29SS EIRIK RAUDE - DP/CM - POTENTIAL 4Q – NEXT WEST AFRICA 1 YEARSS SONGA EQUINOX - DP/CM - JULY (STATOIL)SS SONGA EQUINOX - DP/CM29 28SS ISLAND INNOVATOR - DP/CM - 2Q (LUNDIN)SS ISLAND INNOVATOR - DP/CM 28 27SS LEIV EIRIKSSON - DP/CM - 1Q (RIG MGT. NORWAY)SS LEIV EIRIKSSON - DP/CM 27 26SS COSLINNOVATOR - DP/CM - STATOILSS COSLINNOVATOR -DP/CM 26 25SS COSLPROMOTER -DP/CM - STATOILSS COSLPROMOTER -DP/CM 25 24SS WEST HERCULES - DP/CM - STATOILSS WEST HERCULES - DP/CM 24 23DS WEST NAVIGATOR - DP/CM - SHELLDS WEST NAVIGATOR - DP/CM 23 22SS COSL PIONEER - DP/CM - STATOILSS COSL PIONEER - DP/CM 22 21SS OCEAN VANGUARD - CM - STATOILSS OCEAN VANGUARD - CM 21 20SS DS BREDFORD DOLPHIN - CM - LUNDINSS DS BREDFORD DOLPHIN - CM - AGR GROUPSS DS BREDFORD DOLPHIN - CM20 19SS TRANSOCEAN WINNER - CM - LUNDIN/MARATHONSS TRANSOCEAN WINNER - CM - MARATHONSS TRANSOCEAN WINNER - CM19 18SS STENA DON - DP - STATOILSS STENA DON - DP 18 17SS BORGLAND DOLPHIN - CM - RIG MGT NORWAY/STATOILSS BORGLAND DOLPHIN - CM 17 16SS BIDEFORD DOLPHIN - CM - STATOILSS BIDEFORD DOLPHIN - CM 16 15SS POLAR PIONEER - CM - BPSS POLAR PIONEER - CM - STATOILSS POLAR PIONEER - CM15 14SS SCARABEO 5 - DP/CM - STATOILSS SCARABEO 5 - DP/CM 14 13SS TRANSOCEAN ARCTIC - CM - RIG MGT NORWAYSS TRANSOCEAN ARCTIC - CM 13 12SS TRANSOCEAN SEARCHER - CM - STATOIL/BGSS TRANSOCEAN SEARCHER - CM - BGSS TRANSOCEAN SEARCHER - CM12 11SS TRANSOCEAN BARENTS - DP/CM - DET NORSKESS TRANSOCEAN BARENTS - DP/CM 11 10SS DEEPSEA ATLANTIC - DP/CM - STATOILSS DEEPSEA ATLANTIC - DP/CM 10 9SS WEST ALPHA - CM - STATOIL/EXXONMOBILSS WEST ALPHA - CM - EXXONMOBILSS WEST ALPHA - CM9 8SS TRANSOCEAN LEADER - CM - STATOILSS TRANSOCEAN LEADER - CM 8 7SS TRANSOCEAN SPITSBERGEN - DP/CM - STATOILSS TRANSOCEAN SPITSBERGEN - DP/CM 7 6SS DEEPSEA BERGEN - CM - STATOILSS DEEPSEA BERGEN - CM 6 5SS WEST VENTURE - DP/CM - STATOILSS WEST VENTURE - DP/CM 5 4SS SONGA TRYM - CM - STATOILSS SONGA TRYM - CM 4 3SS SONGA DELTA - CM - STATOILSS SONGA DELTA - CM 3 2SS SONGA DEE - CM - STATOILSS SONGA DEE - CM 2 1SS SCARABEO 8 - DP/CM - ENISS SCARABEO 8 - DP/CM 1

12 Other demand – Prelay, Mooring, Floating Production, etc 12 Other demand (based on spot fixtures) Platforms (existing and expected) Source:Infield

13 Large untapped potential in Arctic/Harsh Environment areas 13 Oil reserves Gas reserves Source:Infield, USGS, NPD, DE&C, RS Platou

14 North-Sea AHTS Vessel Demand Drivers (12,000+bhp) - Summary 14

15 Ordering activity of AHTS vessels (>12,000bhp) 15 by size categoryby region of build

16 Existing fleet and orderbook 16 April 2013 AHTS vessels on order in % of existing fleet (worldwide) is higher in the larger AHTS categories. Many of the units in the >16,000 bhp size category are built in Asia.

17 The North Sea AHTS fleet – in service vessels 17 Age profile by country of build: Norwegian Continental Shelf Only vessels >12,000 bhp included, March 2013 Age profile by country of build: Other North-Sea

18 Can “North Sea” AHTS vessels return home? 18 ? North-Sea AHTS fleet changesLocation of Norwegian built tonnage (blt >2000)

19 North Sea AHTS fleet: Supply, demand and utilization rate 19 Supply, demand, utilization rate Utilization rate vs spot-rates* *Spot-rates – as quoted in Platou Supply Monthly for 16,000+bhp Only vessels >12,000 bhp included

20 Conclusions/Summary 20 AHTS demand in the North-Sea is currently growing as a consequence of higher offshore activity as a result of more lenient taxes on the NCS (since 2005), new basins opening for exploration and development, significant discoveries in even mature basins and a generally favourable investment climate in the oil and gas industry (oil prices are still very much elevated). Large AHTS demand is largely driven by rig activity and especially the floaters. There has been extensive discussions whether the new floaters, which generally have both DP and Conventionally Mooring, will require the same AHTS intensity. Generally speaking we see that conventionally moored floaters use 3-4 vessels, while DP/CM units require 2-3 vessels. North-Sea AHTS vessels are likely to receive a significant boost in demand from new basins opening up in the Arctic. Exploration, development and production has already started in the Barents Sea and exploration has started in Greenland. The Greenland campaign of Cairn gave a significant boost to demand in 2010/11 and this is likely to continue in 2014+ when Cairn returns with Statoil and other oil companies follow in their footsteps. Very few orders of North-Sea specified AHTS tonnage have been made in recent years. Earnings have been moderate and capital increasingly difficult to get hold of, thus restraining investments. This will lead to very little supply growth the next years. The North-Sea fleet utilization is therefore likely to have passed its cyclical low (although 2013 is still expected to be a challenging year) and will start to climb in 2014/15. Spot-rates/Term-rates are likely to follow.

21 ACCRA COPENHAGEN OSLO MOSCOW SHANGHAI ISTANBUL SINGAPORE GENEVA ABERDEEN / LONDON HOUSTON RIO ATHENS CAPE TOWN SYDNEY NEW YORK


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