Ordering activity of AHTS vessels (>12,000bhp) 15 by size categoryby region of build
Existing fleet and orderbook 16 April 2013 AHTS vessels on order in % of existing fleet (worldwide) is higher in the larger AHTS categories. Many of the units in the >16,000 bhp size category are built in Asia.
The North Sea AHTS fleet – in service vessels 17 Age profile by country of build: Norwegian Continental Shelf Only vessels >12,000 bhp included, March 2013 Age profile by country of build: Other North-Sea
Can “North Sea” AHTS vessels return home? 18 ? North-Sea AHTS fleet changesLocation of Norwegian built tonnage (blt >2000)
North Sea AHTS fleet: Supply, demand and utilization rate 19 Supply, demand, utilization rate Utilization rate vs spot-rates* *Spot-rates – as quoted in Platou Supply Monthly for 16,000+bhp Only vessels >12,000 bhp included
Conclusions/Summary 20 AHTS demand in the North-Sea is currently growing as a consequence of higher offshore activity as a result of more lenient taxes on the NCS (since 2005), new basins opening for exploration and development, significant discoveries in even mature basins and a generally favourable investment climate in the oil and gas industry (oil prices are still very much elevated). Large AHTS demand is largely driven by rig activity and especially the floaters. There has been extensive discussions whether the new floaters, which generally have both DP and Conventionally Mooring, will require the same AHTS intensity. Generally speaking we see that conventionally moored floaters use 3-4 vessels, while DP/CM units require 2-3 vessels. North-Sea AHTS vessels are likely to receive a significant boost in demand from new basins opening up in the Arctic. Exploration, development and production has already started in the Barents Sea and exploration has started in Greenland. The Greenland campaign of Cairn gave a significant boost to demand in 2010/11 and this is likely to continue in 2014+ when Cairn returns with Statoil and other oil companies follow in their footsteps. Very few orders of North-Sea specified AHTS tonnage have been made in recent years. Earnings have been moderate and capital increasingly difficult to get hold of, thus restraining investments. This will lead to very little supply growth the next years. The North-Sea fleet utilization is therefore likely to have passed its cyclical low (although 2013 is still expected to be a challenging year) and will start to climb in 2014/15. Spot-rates/Term-rates are likely to follow.
ACCRA COPENHAGEN OSLO MOSCOW SHANGHAI ISTANBUL SINGAPORE GENEVA ABERDEEN / LONDON HOUSTON RIO ATHENS CAPE TOWN SYDNEY NEW YORK
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